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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Softs Report 12/05/2025

By On December 5, 2025 - 10:16 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
DJ World Food Prices Fall for Third Straight Month
  By Giulia Petroni
  Global food prices fell in November for the third consecutive month, driven by lower prices for all major staple foods except cereals, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said.
  The FAO’s food price index–which tracks a basket of widely traded food commodities–averaged 125.1 points in November, down 1.2% from October’s revised reading and more than 20% below the March 2022 peak after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
  Sugar prices tumbled 5.9% to their lowest level since December 2020, due to strong output from Brazil’s key growing regions, an encouraging early start to India’s harvest and favorable crop prospects in Thailand.
  Dairy fell 3.1% from October, the fifth consecutive monthly drop, with butter and whole-milk prices registering the sharpest declines. Prices were pressured by rising milk production and abundant export availability in the European Union and New Zealand, as well as softer import demand for milk powders in parts of Asia.
  Vegetable-oil prices fell 2.6% in November to a five-month low. Palm, rapeseed and sunflower oils all declined, offsetting a modest uptick in soyoil quotations.
  Meat prices edged 0.8% lower, led by lower pig and poultry prices. Pig-meat prices fell on the back of ample global supplies and weaker demand, particularly from China due to import duties, while poultry prices declined due to abundant supplies from Brazil and stronger international competition. Still, overall meat prices remain 4.9% higher than a year ago, with bovine largely steady and ovine prices rising.
  Cereals bucked the broader trend, climbing 1.8% in November. Wheat prices rose 2.5% amid potential Chinese interest in U.S. supplies, continued tensions in the Black Sea region, and expectations of reduced Russian plantings for the harvest. Maize prices strengthened on firm demand for Brazilian supplies, while rice prices fell as buyers pulled back from Indica and fragrant varieties.
COTTON
General Comments:   Cotton was lower again yesterday as traders saw weak export sales in the weekly USA reports.  Futures could still work lower as cash market appears to be quiet.  Farmers are not selling too much due to price, but buyers are hard to find.  A lack of new Chinese demand has been important and a reason to see lower US prices.  The lack of demand seems to be part of the price for now but the demand is not a reason to see a rally anytime soon.  The US harvest is over.  The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News:  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 185 contracts.
Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 63.90, 63.20, and 62.00 March, with resistance of 65.40, 65.90 and 66.20 March.
FCOJ
General Comments:  Futures were a little higher yesterday, and the trends are still mixed on the daily charts.  Trading has been choppy lately.  Traders are worried about demand even with lower prices.  FCOJ from Brazil has been subjected to tariffs but those have been stopped by the US for now.  The weather is considered good for production here and in Brazil and Mexico.  Development conditions are good in Florida and in Brazil now with occasional showers in Florida and dry weather in Brazil.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down.  Support is at 143.00, 13300, and 128.00 January, with resistance at 158.00, 164.00, and 173.00 January.
COFFEE
General Comments:  New York and London were higher yesterday, and trends are still mixed in New York and are mostly mixed again in London.  Scattered showers are being reported now to improve tree condition in Brazil.  Mexico is in good condition, as is Central America.  Vietnam has seen too much rain as typhoons hit the country, but the rains are receding now and harvesting has resumed.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 324.24 ct/lb.  ICE NY said that 7 notices were posted for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 516 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 363.00, 359.00, and 352.00 March, and resistance is at 390.00, 400.00 and 415.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down.  Support is at 4260, 4140, and 4000 January, with resistance at 4600, 4690, and 4790 January.
SUGAR
General Comments:  New York and London were a little lower yesterday on ideas of good supplies for the market.  Trends are sideways.  There are still ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue.  UNICA said that for the first two weeks of November, 18.8 million metric tons of sugarcane were harvested in for the south-central region of Brazil, which is up 14% from this time last year. 983,000 tons of sugar were refined, up almost 9% from last year, and total ethanol production was 1.3 billion liters, up almost 25% from last year.   Production in Center-South Brazil has been strong, but the south center harvest is almost over.  The prospect of a big global surplus in the 2025/26 season was keeping the market on the defensive with a rise in production in India and Thailand set to increased supplies while global consumption is expected to remain steady.  India’s sugar production in the first two months of the 2025/26 season, which began on October 1, rose 43% from a year earlier, because of better recovery rates and faster crushing across major producing states.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1460, 1430, and 1400 March and resistance is at 1520, 1540, and 1610 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down.  Support is at 416.00, 410.00, and 408.00 March, with resistance at 437.00, 445.00, and 452.00 March.
COCOA
General Comments:  New York and London closed lower yesterday.  A big main crop harvest is anticipated in West Africa and rains have been positive for crops lately.  Light rains mixed with heat in Ivory Coast’s cocoa-growing regions last week signaled a positive outlook for the main crop.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market feels that there is less demand and the lack of demand is expected to continue.
Overnight News:  ICE NY said that 1 notice was posted for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,511 contracts.
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 5270, 4930, and 4820 March, with resistance at 5780, 6110, and 6510 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 3830, 3650, and 3600 March, with resistance at 4200, 4400, and 4500 March.
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