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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 12/05/2025

By On December 5, 2025 - 10:18 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 5
Source: CME Group
              Contract                        Quantity   Next Trade
Commodity     Month      Delivery Day   Assigned Today   Date Available
      SOYBEAN OIL   December   Dec 08, 2025               78   Nov 28, 2025
DJ World Food Prices Fall for Third Straight Month
  By Giulia Petroni
  Global food prices fell in November for the third consecutive month, driven by lower prices for all major staple foods except cereals, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said.
  The FAO’s food price index–which tracks a basket of widely traded food commodities–averaged 125.1 points in November, down 1.2% from October’s revised reading and more than 20% below the March 2022 peak after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
  Sugar prices tumbled 5.9% to their lowest level since December 2020, due to strong output from Brazil’s key growing regions, an encouraging early start to India’s harvest and favorable crop prospects in Thailand.
  Dairy fell 3.1% from October, the fifth consecutive monthly drop, with butter and whole-milk prices registering the sharpest declines. Prices were pressured by rising milk production and abundant export availability in the European Union and New Zealand, as well as softer import demand for milk powders in parts of Asia.
  Vegetable-oil prices fell 2.6% in November to a five-month low. Palm, rapeseed and sunflower oils all declined, offsetting a modest uptick in soyoil quotations.
  Meat prices edged 0.8% lower, led by lower pig and poultry prices. Pig-meat prices fell on the back of ample global supplies and weaker demand, particularly from China due to import duties, while poultry prices declined due to abundant supplies from Brazil and stronger international competition. Still, overall meat prices remain 4.9% higher than a year ago, with bovine largely steady and ovine prices rising.
  Cereals bucked the broader trend, climbing 1.8% in November. Wheat prices rose 2.5% amid potential Chinese interest in U.S. supplies, continued tensions in the Black Sea region, and expectations of reduced Russian plantings for the harvest. Maize prices strengthened on firm demand for Brazilian supplies, while rice prices fell as buyers pulled back from Indica and fragrant varieties.
DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Dec 4
Winnipeg — The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the period that ended Nov. 30, 2025. Figures in thousands of metric
tons. Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
           Wheat   Durum  Oats   Barley Flax  Canola  Peas   Corn   Total
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2711.3  893.6  336.1  404.2  27.5  1323.9  290.3  236.4  7355.0
Week Ago  2758.0  893.4  347.9  417.4  26.1  1374.3  291.3  183.1  7470.3
Year Ago  2459.0  693.4  323.8  384.8  40.2  1448.8  349.4  167.2  7171.9
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week  659.0  181.6   51.1   82.0   3.1   427.4   37.7   26.0  1576.7
Week Ago   724.2  172.7   47.4   88.3   3.0   443.6   40.5   15.0  1650.8
To Date   9360.6 2287.9  925.5 1927.7  66.0  6156.9 1287.2  262.2 24613.9
Year Ago  8218.4 2099.1  946.7 1459.7  42.2  6998.3 1509.4  198.4 23389.5
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week  502.6  183.9    2.6   33.4   0.0   246.9   39.2   59.0  1380.8
Week Ago   597.4  185.2    0.0   17.9   0.0   185.1   26.9   77.4  1393.7
To Date   9550.6 2340.9  157.6 1177.3  16.8  2576.9 1001.7  303.7 21000.8
Year Ago  8562.7 1912.0  200.3  911.7  14.5  4139.2 1166.3  488.3 21270.5
EXPORTS
This Week  654.9   68.6   28.8    0.1   0.4   159.0   45.4   43.2  1362.8
Week Ago   583.1  145.9   27.5   39.2   1.8    99.5   25.9   42.1  1459.5
To Date   7828.4 1373.4  398.2 1160.6  28.5  2087.5  999.0  175.8 16905.4
Year Ago  6911.0 1497.6  538.6  867.0  27.7  3888.3 1166.0  510.5 18305.4
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week   62.6   30.8   20.2   24.1   0.8   247.8    5.8   15.8   431.9
Week Ago   100.9   86.5   12.2   23.5   1.4   216.0    3.4   19.7   514.6
To Date   1532.9  348.7  261.2  451.5  20.1  3938.1   65.5  339.3  7741.1
Year Ago  1868.1  242.3  326.1  485.1  15.7  3895.4   82.7  390.8  8086.7
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com)
WHEAT
General Comments:   Wheat closed a little higher yesterday on a lack of news from Ukraine or Russia, and demand for Wheat in export markets remains limited.  The StatsCan report showed increased Wheat production.  The weekly export sales report showed that demand was in line with expectations, but the report was for October sales.  The threat for additional bombings of freighters by either Russia or Ukraine kept futures supported to some extent.  World prices turned weaker last week due to reports of strong production in exporter countries and mostly the countries in the global south.  Production has been good in northern hemisphere countries.  Southern hemisphere crops appear to be very good.  Demand has been weaker for various origins including Russia.  In Australia, the government’s ABARES agency raised its forecast for the country’s 2025/26 wheat production by around 1.8 million tons to 35.6 million tons. That followed recent upward revisions to forecasts of Argentina’s crop, which is expected to reach a record volume.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 524, 517, and 507 March, with resistance at 555, 560, and 573 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 506, 501, and 494 March, with resistance at 540, 550, and 553 March. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
RICE:
General Comments   Rice was higher yesterday despite a mediocre weekly export sales report.  The sales report was still covering October data as USDA catches up with data left unreported due to the government shutdown.  Commercials were only light buyers.  Ideas are that the market is too cheap and that farmers have sold what needs to be sold for now.  The recent selling has been to be relentless and appears tied to the weaker prices in Asia and especially India.  Trends are mixed in the market.  The harvest is over in the delta and Mid South.  California is about done with its harvest.  Yields and quality are mixed, but quality appears better than a year ago.  The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.  The charts show that futures are in a short term trading range.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed.  Support is at 976, 964, and 952 January and resistance is at 1028, 1056, and 1068 January.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher yesterday as the weekly export sales report held strong.  There have been ideas that traders expect weaker demand news from now on.  Ideas are that export demand is less now due to increased competition in the world market and ethanol demand is less as well.  Reports indicate that many elevatorxs are holding less Corn than expected.  Trends are mixed in the market.  Temperatures should average below normal this week.  Oats were lower, but trends are turning up anyway.
Overnight News:  Mexico bought 392,500 tons of US Corn and Colombia bought 100,800 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 430, 426, and 423 March, and resistance is at 452, 455, and 457 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 309, 302, and 297 March, and resistance is at 320, 323, and 325 March.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil was higher yesterday as no new sales announcements were made by USDA to China or anywhere else.  There was some talk that China had bought more US Soybeans but this was not confirmed by USDA yesterday.  USDA announced new sales today.  The Trump administration says, however, that China is on pace to buy the 12 million tons of US Soybeans it announced a few weeks ago by the end of February.  The US will have to compete with South America for sales in a diminishing Chinese market and US prices are currently too high to complete many new sales.  The Chinese hog herd is being reduced and this means less demand for Soybeans and Soybean Meal.  Temperatures will average below normal in the Midwest this week.
Overnight News: China bought 462,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1114, 1103, and 1071 January, and resistance is at 1148, 1169, and  1184 January.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.  Support is at 307.00, 304.00, and 301.00 January, and resistance is at 319.00, 323.00, and 333.00 January.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 5100, 4980, and 4930 January, with resistance at 5320, 5420, and 5510 January.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments:   Palm Oil futures were higher today on some strength in competing markets and ideas of harvest delays in Malaysia due to flooding concerns.  There are still Indonesian plans to increase the use of Palm Oil in biofuels blends.  There are still ideas of increasing production.  The market sentiment overall is turning bearish on ideas of increasing stocks to the market and some concerns about demand   Canola was lower and trends are down on the daily charts.  StatsCan reported that the country has produced a big Canola crop this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down.  Support is at 618.00, 616.00, and 610.00 January, with resistance at 645.00, 650.00, and 655.00 January.  Trends in Palm Oil are down.  Support is at 4010, 3940, and 3880 February, with resistance at 4200, 4270, and 4300 February.
DJ Indonesia’s Trade Could Face Headwinds Next Year — Market Talk
     0359 GMT – Indonesia’s trade faces significant headwinds in 2026, UOB Kay Hian analyst Suryaputra Wijaksana writes in a research note. That stems from a global slowdown and protectionist policies targeting Indonesia’s key exports, such as coal and palm oil. Efforts by India, a major buyer of palm oil, to reduce imports of the commodity, threaten Indonesia. However, these challenges could be partially offset by potential new trade agreements with the U.S. and demand from Europe, the analyst says. A tariff-free trade deal with the U.S. would provide a modest boost to noncommodity exports, he adds. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 5
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec          1045.00    +10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1050.00    +10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1057.50    +10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep  1050.00    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec           1050.00    +10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1055.00    +10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1062.50    +10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1055.00    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec           1030.00    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec           1025.00    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec            4,150.00   +50.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec            426.00     +01.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.1065)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 28
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr          1135.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1092.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep  1012.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec  1002.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1007.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1140.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1097.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1017.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec   1007.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1012.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1112.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1070.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            4,830.00   +70.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            494.00     +07.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.4363)
  (END) Dow Jones Newswires
  03-28-25 0623ET
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