The ags saw a solid bounce this week from a recent pullback in the grains and collapse in the cattle. As most traders will say, one key thing to remember is to stay humble. You’re going to lose, so have some humility when you win. And when you do lose, give credit where credit is due. That is one thing I have been trying to teach my 6-year-old, and boy, has it been tough. If you follow the Husker football program, you know what I am talking about. The last two weeks have been brutal. My son hasn’t fully understood the concept of being a being a fan and staying loyal. Anytime there is a team playing that has an animal mascot, that is who he roots for. So, when the Cornhuskers (not an animal) have played the Nittany Lions, and Hawkeyes over the last couple weeks, he has been against me. In case you don’t follow college football, I had to eat my words and gather some humility these last two weeks. Lead by example, I guess… But as the Huskers prayer prior to games states, “if we should win, let it be by the code…. if we should lose, stand by the road and cheer as the winners go by.”
Corn futures found some strength this week, as December managed to post a dime gain. Crop Progress reports resumed this week, showing 96% of the US corn crop harvested by last Sunday. Weekly Export Inspections showed 1.63 MMT of corn shipped in the week of 11/20, down from the previous week but still seasonally high. EIA data showed ethanol production rising 22,000 barrels per day in the week ending on November 21 at 1.113 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol stocks saw a draw of 339,000 barrels at 21.968 million barrels. Export Sales data was released twice this week as USDA catches up, with 1.327 MMT sold in the week of 10/9 and 2.82 MMT for the week of October 16. Commitment of Traders data is still aged, with managed money in corn futures and options increasing their net short position by 49,089 contracts to 191,055 contracts.
Wheat pulled some gains out of the recent weakness this week. December MPLS spring wheat led the charge, up 14 ¼ cents. The Chicago December contract was the lagger, with just a 4 cent gain. December KC HRW futures were back up 6 ¾ cents. Winter wheat ratings improved this week by 3 points to 48%, with conditions at 48% in good/excellent. Export Inspections were tallied at 474,533 MT in the week of 11/20. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 10/9 was at 613,899 MT, with the second release on Friday morning at 341,306 MT. CFTC data from all the way back on October 14 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options increasing their net short by 14,387 contracts to 111,743 contracts. In KC wheat, they added 4,170 contracts to their net short to 67,704 contracts.
Soybeans found some late week strength this week, as January closed up 12 ¾ cents. December soybean meal was down just $0.70/ton on the week, as bean oil was 150 points (2.98%) higher. Wire reports indicated 10 cargoes of US beans sold to China this week, though USDA confirmed just 312,000 MT. FGIS export inspections data showed soybean shipments dropping to just 799,042 in the week of November 20. Export Sales data had a couple updates this week, with 785,003 MT sold in the week ending on 10/9 and 1.1 MMT in the week of October 16. CFTC data is still more than a month behind, with Commitment of Traders showing spec traders at just 391 contracts net short by October 14.
Live cattle saw some gains as December was up $1.12 on the week. Cash trade improved late this week with $220 in the South on Friday, with some northern trade at $215, up from the $208-210 seen in the first half. Feeders saw late week strength with the January contract up $9.75 since last Friday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index continued the weakness, down $20.94 week/week to $318.76. Wholesale boxed beef prices were back lower this week. Choice was down $4.66/cwt (-1.3%) this week to $366.82 as Select was $5.93 (1.7%) lower at $351.05 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was down 14.2% from last week due to the holiday, as well as down 3.7% below from same week last year at 445.6 million lbs. Production year to date is 4.4% lower on a 7.1% decline in slaughter. CFTC reported managed money in live cattle futures and options at a net long of 123,754 contracts as of October 14 in the more than a month delayed Commitment of Traders report this week. Feeders were net long 25,524 contracts on that date.
Hogs snuck back above the $80 level, with December up $2.80 on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another $3.44 this week at $82.27 as of November 25. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout held below the $100 level this week, but managed a 79 cent gain to $94.22/cwt. Weekly pork production was down 17% from last week due to the Thursday holiday and 4.7% below the same week last year at 469.7 million lbs. Pork production to date is down 1.5% on a 1.8% drop in slaughter. Spec traders were slashing their previously record net long by 12,312 contracts in lean hog futures and options as of the week ending on October 14 at 128,928 contracts.
Cotton futures rebounded this week with December up 156 points on the week. Crop Progress data reported the US cotton harvest at 79% complete and slightly below the 80% average pace. Export Sales from the week of 10/9 were at 157,636 RB sold, with 10/16 sales totaling 175,678 RB. Cotton Ginnings data as of November 15 showed 6.607 million RB of cotton ginned, which lags the same time last year by 3%. The weekly Adjusted World Price was updated to 50.77 cents/lb this week, down just 3 points from the week prior. Delayed Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds in cotton futures and options adding another 5,017 contracts to their new record net short position as of 10/14 to 81,373 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week will see the weekly Export Inspections report out on Monday morning. USDA will also release delayed Export Sales data for the week of 10/23 on Monday morning and the week of 10/30 on Thursday morning. The still delayed Commitment of Traders report from the week ending on 10/24 is out on Tuesday afternoon, with the week of 10/31 on Friday. Up to date EIA data will be released on Wednesday morning. Friday is the last trade day for live cattle options.
Tech Talk: March Soybeans
March soybeans have MACD with a sell signal on a rising ADX. That was mixed with a shooting star candlestick on November 18. The resistance is at the 78.6% Fib retracement resistance off the LOC high to low at $11.59 ¾. Breaking that would suggest a test of the contract high, but we’re fighting gravity and running low on steam. Other lateral resistance is at $11.75 ½, the November high. Stochastics are crossing in low neutral, after holding at the 1/3 speedline off the August low at $11.31 ¾. We got that bounce, though it was on thinner volume, so Monday’s resumption of trade will have a little more substance.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Cheer as the Winners Go By. Ag Marketing Report 12/01/2025
The ags saw a solid bounce this week from a recent pullback in the grains and collapse in the cattle. As most traders will say, one key thing to remember is to stay humble. You’re going to lose, so have some humility when you win. And when you do lose, give credit where credit is due. That is one thing I have been trying to teach my 6-year-old, and boy, has it been tough. If you follow the Husker football program, you know what I am talking about. The last two weeks have been brutal. My son hasn’t fully understood the concept of being a being a fan and staying loyal. Anytime there is a team playing that has an animal mascot, that is who he roots for. So, when the Cornhuskers (not an animal) have played the Nittany Lions, and Hawkeyes over the last couple weeks, he has been against me. In case you don’t follow college football, I had to eat my words and gather some humility these last two weeks. Lead by example, I guess… But as the Huskers prayer prior to games states, “if we should win, let it be by the code…. if we should lose, stand by the road and cheer as the winners go by.”
Corn futures found some strength this week, as December managed to post a dime gain. Crop Progress reports resumed this week, showing 96% of the US corn crop harvested by last Sunday. Weekly Export Inspections showed 1.63 MMT of corn shipped in the week of 11/20, down from the previous week but still seasonally high. EIA data showed ethanol production rising 22,000 barrels per day in the week ending on November 21 at 1.113 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol stocks saw a draw of 339,000 barrels at 21.968 million barrels. Export Sales data was released twice this week as USDA catches up, with 1.327 MMT sold in the week of 10/9 and 2.82 MMT for the week of October 16. Commitment of Traders data is still aged, with managed money in corn futures and options increasing their net short position by 49,089 contracts to 191,055 contracts.
Wheat pulled some gains out of the recent weakness this week. December MPLS spring wheat led the charge, up 14 ¼ cents. The Chicago December contract was the lagger, with just a 4 cent gain. December KC HRW futures were back up 6 ¾ cents. Winter wheat ratings improved this week by 3 points to 48%, with conditions at 48% in good/excellent. Export Inspections were tallied at 474,533 MT in the week of 11/20. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 10/9 was at 613,899 MT, with the second release on Friday morning at 341,306 MT. CFTC data from all the way back on October 14 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options increasing their net short by 14,387 contracts to 111,743 contracts. In KC wheat, they added 4,170 contracts to their net short to 67,704 contracts.
Soybeans found some late week strength this week, as January closed up 12 ¾ cents. December soybean meal was down just $0.70/ton on the week, as bean oil was 150 points (2.98%) higher. Wire reports indicated 10 cargoes of US beans sold to China this week, though USDA confirmed just 312,000 MT. FGIS export inspections data showed soybean shipments dropping to just 799,042 in the week of November 20. Export Sales data had a couple updates this week, with 785,003 MT sold in the week ending on 10/9 and 1.1 MMT in the week of October 16. CFTC data is still more than a month behind, with Commitment of Traders showing spec traders at just 391 contracts net short by October 14.
Live cattle saw some gains as December was up $1.12 on the week. Cash trade improved late this week with $220 in the South on Friday, with some northern trade at $215, up from the $208-210 seen in the first half. Feeders saw late week strength with the January contract up $9.75 since last Friday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index continued the weakness, down $20.94 week/week to $318.76. Wholesale boxed beef prices were back lower this week. Choice was down $4.66/cwt (-1.3%) this week to $366.82 as Select was $5.93 (1.7%) lower at $351.05 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was down 14.2% from last week due to the holiday, as well as down 3.7% below from same week last year at 445.6 million lbs. Production year to date is 4.4% lower on a 7.1% decline in slaughter. CFTC reported managed money in live cattle futures and options at a net long of 123,754 contracts as of October 14 in the more than a month delayed Commitment of Traders report this week. Feeders were net long 25,524 contracts on that date.
Hogs snuck back above the $80 level, with December up $2.80 on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another $3.44 this week at $82.27 as of November 25. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout held below the $100 level this week, but managed a 79 cent gain to $94.22/cwt. Weekly pork production was down 17% from last week due to the Thursday holiday and 4.7% below the same week last year at 469.7 million lbs. Pork production to date is down 1.5% on a 1.8% drop in slaughter. Spec traders were slashing their previously record net long by 12,312 contracts in lean hog futures and options as of the week ending on October 14 at 128,928 contracts.
Cotton futures rebounded this week with December up 156 points on the week. Crop Progress data reported the US cotton harvest at 79% complete and slightly below the 80% average pace. Export Sales from the week of 10/9 were at 157,636 RB sold, with 10/16 sales totaling 175,678 RB. Cotton Ginnings data as of November 15 showed 6.607 million RB of cotton ginned, which lags the same time last year by 3%. The weekly Adjusted World Price was updated to 50.77 cents/lb this week, down just 3 points from the week prior. Delayed Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds in cotton futures and options adding another 5,017 contracts to their new record net short position as of 10/14 to 81,373 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week will see the weekly Export Inspections report out on Monday morning. USDA will also release delayed Export Sales data for the week of 10/23 on Monday morning and the week of 10/30 on Thursday morning. The still delayed Commitment of Traders report from the week ending on 10/24 is out on Tuesday afternoon, with the week of 10/31 on Friday. Up to date EIA data will be released on Wednesday morning. Friday is the last trade day for live cattle options.
Tech Talk: March Soybeans
March soybeans have MACD with a sell signal on a rising ADX. That was mixed with a shooting star candlestick on November 18. The resistance is at the 78.6% Fib retracement resistance off the LOC high to low at $11.59 ¾. Breaking that would suggest a test of the contract high, but we’re fighting gravity and running low on steam. Other lateral resistance is at $11.75 ½, the November high. Stochastics are crossing in low neutral, after holding at the 1/3 speedline off the August low at $11.31 ¾. We got that bounce, though it was on thinner volume, so Monday’s resumption of trade will have a little more substance.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.