If you paid attention to the ag markets at all this week, the flow of the market didn’t necessarily jive with the news that was available. Point being, in soybeans, China was the buyer of over 1.5 million metric tons and are now 15% full of their 12 MMT commitment that has been reported. Yet, futures only managed a slight gain on the week and closed nearly 45 cents off the highs. Corn had rather strong export data, with census showing record August exports, a more than four year high in weekly exports, and strong export sales activity from the first week of October. However, corn managed to close lower on the week as some of that data is a little aged by this point. The theme even goes over to cattle, where President Trump lifted the 40% tariff on Brazilian beef and cattle managed to close only slightly lower on Friday. There are several market axioms that apply in this situation, “trade the news, you lose,” “buy the rumor, sell the fact,” and vice versa. A lot of this has been essentially worked into the market and some of the times the market fades it instead of trading it. So, what you hear doesn’t always jive with the market reaction. After all, traders open their wallet before they open their mouth.
Corn futures felt pressure late in the week, as the December contract was down 4 ¾ cents from last Friday. Crop Progress reports resumed this week, showing 91% of the US corn crop harvested. Weekly Export Inspections data was not the reason for the selling, as is showed the largest weekly number in more than 4 years (during a seasonally low time) at 2.05 MMT of corn shipped in the week of 11/13. EIA data showed ethanol production back up 16,000 barrels per day from the previous week, down as of November 14 at 1.091 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol stocks saw a slight build of 88,000 barrels at 22.307 million barrels. Grain Crushing data for August saw 463.44 mbu of corn used for ethanol during the month. Census data tallied August corn exports at 6.397 MMT, with ethanol exports a record 188.77 million gallons. Export Sales data showed 2.26 MMT of corn sold in the week of 10/2.
Wheat was mixed again this week, as the winter wheats continued their losses, albeit slight this week. December MPLS spring wheat saw just a ¾ cent gain. The Chicago December contract was 1/4 cent lower and taking the 2 week shift to just ¾ cent. December KC HRW futures were another 4 1/4 cents in the red. We got our first look at winter wheat ratings this week, with conditions at 45% in good/excellent, down 4 points from the same point last year. Export Inspections were tallied at 246,533 MT in the week of 11/13. Monthly data from Census showed 2.69 MMT of wheat shipped in August, a 9-year high for the month. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 10/2 was at a marketing year high 887,864 MT.
Soybeans found early strength this week but gave it nearly all back later in the week, as January was limited to just a ½ cent gain and 44 ½ cents off the early week high. December soybean meal was back down $7.40/ton (2.29%) on the week, as bean oil was 11 points (0.22%) higher. The US soybean crop was reported at 95% harvested as of last Sunday per the resumed Crop Progress data. USDA reported several private export sale announcements this week, totaling 1.584 MMT and all to China. FGIS export inspections data showed soybean shipments up 4.6% from the previous week to 1.18 MMT in the week of 11/13. Delayed Census data showed August exports at 2.273 MMT, a 3-year high for the month, with meal exports at 1.336 MMT, a record for the month. Export Sales in the week of October 2 were at just 919,447 MT. NOPA data showed 227.7 mbu of soybeans crushed in October. Official USDA data from August saw 198 mbu of soybeans crushed, a little behind the NOPA data.
Live cattle was under pressure for much of the week, as December was down $4.70 on the week. Cash trade continued to slide this week, down to $215-219 in the North and $222-224 in the South. President Trump lifted the 40% tariff on Brazilian beef imports this week. Feeders were again weaker this week, with January losing $6.32. The CME Feeder Cattle Index continued the weakness, down $4.01 week/week to $339.72. Wholesale boxed beef prices reversed higher this week. Choice was up 75 cents/cwt (0.2%) this week to $371.48 as Select was $2.74 (0.8%) higher at $356.98 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was up 1.6% from last week but 5.4% below the same week last year at 519.6 million lbs. Production year to date is 4.4% lower on a 7.1% decline in slaughter. Census trade data for August showed 190.7 million lbs of beef exports, which was the lowest for any month since June 2020 and the lowest for August since 2015. Cattle on Feed data from Friday showed October placements at 2.039 million head, down 10.02% from last year. Marketings were down 8.02% to 1.697 million head. That took the November 1 on feed number to 11.706 million head, a 2.17% drop from last year.
Hogs managed to close the week with a 70 cent loss this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $3.12 this week at $85.71 as of November 19. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout continued the retreat below the $100 level this week, down $3.79 to $93.43/cwt. All wholesale primals were reported lower, with the belly leading the charge lower and down $13.25. Weekly pork production was down 3.3% from last week and 1.6% above the same week last year at 564.7 million lbs. Pork production to date is down 2.1% on a 2.1% drop in slaughter. Pork exports during August were tallied at 542.8 million lbs according to converted Census data, second largest August total on record.
Cotton futures saw losses of 114 points on the week. Crop Progress data was back on this week with the US cotton harvest at 71% complete and slightly below the 72% average pace. Export Sales were for the week of 10/2, with 198,985 RB sold and shipments at just 157,757 RB. August cotton exports from Census was tallied at 642,851 bales, which was a 10-year low for the month, and down 31.39% from July. The weekly Adjusted World Price was updated on Thursday to 50.80 cents/lb, down 103 points from the week prior. Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds in cotton futures and options adding another 11,586 contracts to their net short position as of 10/7 to 76,326 contracts. That is still delayed and will be until January 23 when the reports are set to be back on schedule.
Market Watch
Things are getting back to normal following the near month and half shutdown, as next Monday will see the weekly Export Inspections report in the morning and the final Crop Progress report of the year in the afternoon. Export Sales data for the week of 10/9 will be out on Tuesday morning, with Commitment of Traders data from the week ending on 10/17 out in the afternoon. Up to date EIA data will be released on Wednesday morning, as well as NASS Cotton Ginnings data. Thursday is Thanksgiving, so the government and markets will be closed. Friday will be a hard open for the markets at 8:30 am CST. We will also get another Export Sales release for the week of 10/16. Friday will also be an early close for the markets, as well as first notice day or December grain futures.
Tech Talk: March Corn
March corn had a round week. Whether it was profit taking ahead of the holiday week, selling the fact on strong exports, or following up on a 186 bpa yield that USDA seems set on, bulls couldn’t managed to hold the recent uptrend. Lower boundary support off the rising regression channel was broken this week, as well as a 1/3 speedline off the rally from the August low. The 38.2% Fib retracement support at $4.39 couldn’t hold on Thursday, though the 100-day moving average at $4.35 ¾ and uptrend line at $4.35 brought buyers in on Friday’s spike. Breaking below that would likely suggest a test of the 61.8% Fib retracement support at $4.27 ¾, with a 2/3 speedline $4.26 3/4. MACD just flipped back to bearish on a rising ADX, with RSI still bearish and not yet oversold. Zooming out, off the August low, there seems to be a possible Elliot 5 wave pattern, with the current leg #4.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Trade It or Fade It. Ag Marketing Report 11/24/2025
If you paid attention to the ag markets at all this week, the flow of the market didn’t necessarily jive with the news that was available. Point being, in soybeans, China was the buyer of over 1.5 million metric tons and are now 15% full of their 12 MMT commitment that has been reported. Yet, futures only managed a slight gain on the week and closed nearly 45 cents off the highs. Corn had rather strong export data, with census showing record August exports, a more than four year high in weekly exports, and strong export sales activity from the first week of October. However, corn managed to close lower on the week as some of that data is a little aged by this point. The theme even goes over to cattle, where President Trump lifted the 40% tariff on Brazilian beef and cattle managed to close only slightly lower on Friday. There are several market axioms that apply in this situation, “trade the news, you lose,” “buy the rumor, sell the fact,” and vice versa. A lot of this has been essentially worked into the market and some of the times the market fades it instead of trading it. So, what you hear doesn’t always jive with the market reaction. After all, traders open their wallet before they open their mouth.
Corn futures felt pressure late in the week, as the December contract was down 4 ¾ cents from last Friday. Crop Progress reports resumed this week, showing 91% of the US corn crop harvested. Weekly Export Inspections data was not the reason for the selling, as is showed the largest weekly number in more than 4 years (during a seasonally low time) at 2.05 MMT of corn shipped in the week of 11/13. EIA data showed ethanol production back up 16,000 barrels per day from the previous week, down as of November 14 at 1.091 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol stocks saw a slight build of 88,000 barrels at 22.307 million barrels. Grain Crushing data for August saw 463.44 mbu of corn used for ethanol during the month. Census data tallied August corn exports at 6.397 MMT, with ethanol exports a record 188.77 million gallons. Export Sales data showed 2.26 MMT of corn sold in the week of 10/2.
Wheat was mixed again this week, as the winter wheats continued their losses, albeit slight this week. December MPLS spring wheat saw just a ¾ cent gain. The Chicago December contract was 1/4 cent lower and taking the 2 week shift to just ¾ cent. December KC HRW futures were another 4 1/4 cents in the red. We got our first look at winter wheat ratings this week, with conditions at 45% in good/excellent, down 4 points from the same point last year. Export Inspections were tallied at 246,533 MT in the week of 11/13. Monthly data from Census showed 2.69 MMT of wheat shipped in August, a 9-year high for the month. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 10/2 was at a marketing year high 887,864 MT.
Soybeans found early strength this week but gave it nearly all back later in the week, as January was limited to just a ½ cent gain and 44 ½ cents off the early week high. December soybean meal was back down $7.40/ton (2.29%) on the week, as bean oil was 11 points (0.22%) higher. The US soybean crop was reported at 95% harvested as of last Sunday per the resumed Crop Progress data. USDA reported several private export sale announcements this week, totaling 1.584 MMT and all to China. FGIS export inspections data showed soybean shipments up 4.6% from the previous week to 1.18 MMT in the week of 11/13. Delayed Census data showed August exports at 2.273 MMT, a 3-year high for the month, with meal exports at 1.336 MMT, a record for the month. Export Sales in the week of October 2 were at just 919,447 MT. NOPA data showed 227.7 mbu of soybeans crushed in October. Official USDA data from August saw 198 mbu of soybeans crushed, a little behind the NOPA data.
Live cattle was under pressure for much of the week, as December was down $4.70 on the week. Cash trade continued to slide this week, down to $215-219 in the North and $222-224 in the South. President Trump lifted the 40% tariff on Brazilian beef imports this week. Feeders were again weaker this week, with January losing $6.32. The CME Feeder Cattle Index continued the weakness, down $4.01 week/week to $339.72. Wholesale boxed beef prices reversed higher this week. Choice was up 75 cents/cwt (0.2%) this week to $371.48 as Select was $2.74 (0.8%) higher at $356.98 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was up 1.6% from last week but 5.4% below the same week last year at 519.6 million lbs. Production year to date is 4.4% lower on a 7.1% decline in slaughter. Census trade data for August showed 190.7 million lbs of beef exports, which was the lowest for any month since June 2020 and the lowest for August since 2015. Cattle on Feed data from Friday showed October placements at 2.039 million head, down 10.02% from last year. Marketings were down 8.02% to 1.697 million head. That took the November 1 on feed number to 11.706 million head, a 2.17% drop from last year.
Hogs managed to close the week with a 70 cent loss this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $3.12 this week at $85.71 as of November 19. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout continued the retreat below the $100 level this week, down $3.79 to $93.43/cwt. All wholesale primals were reported lower, with the belly leading the charge lower and down $13.25. Weekly pork production was down 3.3% from last week and 1.6% above the same week last year at 564.7 million lbs. Pork production to date is down 2.1% on a 2.1% drop in slaughter. Pork exports during August were tallied at 542.8 million lbs according to converted Census data, second largest August total on record.
Cotton futures saw losses of 114 points on the week. Crop Progress data was back on this week with the US cotton harvest at 71% complete and slightly below the 72% average pace. Export Sales were for the week of 10/2, with 198,985 RB sold and shipments at just 157,757 RB. August cotton exports from Census was tallied at 642,851 bales, which was a 10-year low for the month, and down 31.39% from July. The weekly Adjusted World Price was updated on Thursday to 50.80 cents/lb, down 103 points from the week prior. Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds in cotton futures and options adding another 11,586 contracts to their net short position as of 10/7 to 76,326 contracts. That is still delayed and will be until January 23 when the reports are set to be back on schedule.
Market Watch
Things are getting back to normal following the near month and half shutdown, as next Monday will see the weekly Export Inspections report in the morning and the final Crop Progress report of the year in the afternoon. Export Sales data for the week of 10/9 will be out on Tuesday morning, with Commitment of Traders data from the week ending on 10/17 out in the afternoon. Up to date EIA data will be released on Wednesday morning, as well as NASS Cotton Ginnings data. Thursday is Thanksgiving, so the government and markets will be closed. Friday will be a hard open for the markets at 8:30 am CST. We will also get another Export Sales release for the week of 10/16. Friday will also be an early close for the markets, as well as first notice day or December grain futures.
Tech Talk: March Corn
March corn had a round week. Whether it was profit taking ahead of the holiday week, selling the fact on strong exports, or following up on a 186 bpa yield that USDA seems set on, bulls couldn’t managed to hold the recent uptrend. Lower boundary support off the rising regression channel was broken this week, as well as a 1/3 speedline off the rally from the August low. The 38.2% Fib retracement support at $4.39 couldn’t hold on Thursday, though the 100-day moving average at $4.35 ¾ and uptrend line at $4.35 brought buyers in on Friday’s spike. Breaking below that would likely suggest a test of the 61.8% Fib retracement support at $4.27 ¾, with a 2/3 speedline $4.26 3/4. MACD just flipped back to bearish on a rising ADX, with RSI still bearish and not yet oversold. Zooming out, off the August low, there seems to be a possible Elliot 5 wave pattern, with the current leg #4.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.