Peace Through LNG. The Energy Report 11/24/2025

Oil prices have gone into hibernation, and the diesel crack spread has come back down as peace hopes and LNG exports from the US to Europe are rising. US Energy policy is playing a part in the peace process and raising hopes that parts of Europe won/t freeze this winter.  There has been a modest shift toward risk off mode in oil, gold, and silver markets following reports that US and Ukrainian negotiators have developed an “updated and refined peace framework.” The parties announced on Sunday their intention to continue advancing the peace plan in the coming days. According to a joint statement, discussions related to the US-backed plan in Geneva, which are now believed to have concluded, were described as “highly productive.”

We also had OIL price report that we have seen the European benchmark natural gas prices slipped below the key threshold of 30 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh) on Monday, for the first time in a year and a half, amid strong LNG flows, milder temperatures, and negotiations about the end of the war in Ukraine.

The move lower of the past week has been accelerated by the discussions about the U.S. peace plan for Ukraine, forecasts of milder temperatures in northwest Europe in the weeks ahead and continued strong LNG flows into Europe amid tepid demand in Asia.  Also, record-breaking US LNG Exports are playing a part in easing market concerns.

US Energy Policy is  having a major impact and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports the US South is experiencing a natural gas pipeline boom with as many as 12 projects to install new pipelines or expand existing ones on pace to be completed next year in Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma.

The new systems will carry enough gas to supply all of Canada and will increase the region’s capacity to ship gas by 13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from US Energy Information Administration estimates.

The pipelines will mostly feed the wave of LNG terminals scheduled to start operating in 2027 and beyond, driven by soaring demand for gas around the globe and the US being the world’s largest producer and exporter of the fuel.

The biggest natural gas pipeline boom in nearly 20 years is unfolding in the US South as companies build systems to feed massive export terminals rising along the Gulf of Mexico.

As many as 12 projects to install new pipelines or expand existing ones are on pace to be completed next year in Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma, increasing the region’s capacity to ship gas by 13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from US Energy Information Administration estimates. It will mark the biggest one-year expansion for Gulf Coast pipelines since the height of the shale-gas boom in 2008.

And let’s not forget Alaska—it’s making American oil great again! For the first time in nearly 40 years, the Last Frontier is set for a real oil revival, with production expected to jump by 55,000 barrels a day in 2026. That’s a 13% surge, more of a plateau than a full-blown turnaround, but still worth tossing your hard hat in the air. According to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, Alaskan crude output will climb to 477,000 barrels a day, the highest since 2018. After years of decline, this is the biggest annual increase since the Reagan era.

So, what’s fueling this comeback? It’s all about two game-changers up on Alaska’s North Slope. First, the Nuna project from ConocoPhillips stormed onto the scene in December 2024, and it’s gunning for a peak of 20,000 barrels a day. In August 2025, Nuna delivered 7,000 barrels daily, holding the line against the usual production slip. Then there’s Pikka Phase 1, the blockbuster partnership between Santos and Repsol. Production kicks off in early 2026 and aims to hit a whopping 80,000 barrels per day by mid-year—that’s nearly 20% of Alaska’s total 2025 output!

These new wells aren’t just good—they’re outclassing most of their Alaskan cousins. Fresh numbers from the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission show these wells pumping out about 480 barrels of oil equivalent per day, while nearly 80% of other wells in the state lagged below 400 BOE/d last year. The forecast for 2026 keeps getting brighter, thanks to Santos’s fast-tracked ramp-up plans and promising well tests that just won’t quit.

And it’s not just Alaska making headlines. Down south, a massive pipeline buildout is sweeping across Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma. It’s the biggest Gulf Coast natural gas expansion since the shale revolution of 2008, according to Bloomberg. American energy isn’t just back—it’s breaking records and setting the stage for a whole new era.

As many as a dozen projects are slated for completion next year, enough to boost the region’s gas-shipping capacity by 13%, or about the equivalent of Canada’s total consumption, according to US Energy Information Administration data.

“This is the most activity I’ve seen in my 20 years in the industry,” said Jack Weixel of East Daley Analytics. Bloomberg Reports that Oil extended after the biggest weekly loss since early October, as traders weighed the prospect of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal that could increase crude flows into an already well-supplied market.

Brent traded above $62 a barrel after slumping almost 3% last week, while West Texas Intermediate was below $58. European leaders and other allies have told the US the plan needed more work to try and restrain a Trump administration looking to give concessions to Russia and impose terms by Thanksgiving. Call me 888-264-5665 Following US-Ukrainian talks on Sunday in Geneva, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that President Donald Trump’s proposed Nov. 27 deadline to secure Ukraine’s support for the plan could drift into the following week.

You know, I think when it comes to this Thanksgiving week, traditionally and historically we’ve seen some incredible moves out of the blue. It’s kind of disturbing that the market is so quiet, because we expect something big to happen at any moment. And what is big could be the potential deal for peace as Ukraine is talking, but it also could be weather. Be on guard for big moves, but right now the market’s very quiet. I think natural gas gaped down a little bit earlier overnight, but it should start rebounding here as we get forecasts for wickedly cold weather over the Thanksgiving Day holiday.

Fox Weather reports that heavy rain and severe storms are causing flooding in Texas, affecting record-breaking Thanksgiving travel. Thunderstorms hit North Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas early Monday, bringing strong winds and rain along Interstates 20 and 35 as millions begin their holiday journeys. More storms are expected to threaten flights later Monday as weather moves east, with a flash flood risk stretching from Austin to Nashville.

Make sure you download the Fox Weather App to keep up with Thanksgiving Day Holiday travel. Also stay tuned to the Fox Business Network! I am interested in you! Call to open your trading account! Invested in you! Call to open your account at 888-264-5665   Email pflynn@pricegroup.com.

 

Thanks,

Phil Flynn

Senior Market Analyst & Author of The Energy Report

Contributor to FOX Business Network

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