Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Fed Williams Speech at 6:30 A.M., Fed Barr Speech at 7:30 A.M., Fed Jefferson Speech at 7:45 A.M., Fed Collins & Fed Logan Speech at 8:00 A.M., S&P Global Composite PMI Flash, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash, and S&P Global Services PMI Flash at 8:45 A.M., Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Consumer Expectations Final, Michigan Current Conditions Final, Michigan Inflation on Expectations Final, and Wholesale Inventories at 9:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rigs Count at 12:00 P.M., Cattle on Feed and Milk Production at 2:00 P.M.
The delayed September jobs report offered mixed results. The Establishment Survey showed nonfarm payroll growth in September of 119,000, beating trade expectations of 50,000 jobs. The August figure was revised down from 22,000 jobs to a net 4,000 jobs lost. However, all of the jobs lost in August were government jobs, which fell by 22,000, while private payrolls grew by 18,000 jobs. All of the lost government jobs in August were added back in September, while private payrolls surged by 97,000 jobs, the fastest pace in 5 months. Manufacturing payrolls fell by 6,000 jobs in September after falling by a revised 15,000 jobs in August. Leisure/Hospitality added 47,000 jobs in September after adding 32,000 in August, while Construction payrolls grew by 19,000 after falling by a revised 14,000 in August. Transportation/Warehousing payrolls marked the largest September decline of 25,300, followed by a 20,000 payroll decline in the Professional/Business Service Sector. The Household Survey continued with mixed results. The September unemployment rate (U-3) ticked up to a 47-month high of 4.4%. Yet the September U-6 employment rate was down to 8%. The U-6 rate includes the U-3 unemployed, and adds discouraged, marginally, and part-time workers for economic reasons. The U-6 rate is noisier but offers a proper look at the economy’s labor tightness and better insight on household stress, which is missed in the U-3 unemployment rate. Overall, it is a neutral report showing job growth and a slight decline in overall employment (U-6) rate. Many analysts are looking to hold interest rates steady in December as a sticky inflation rate lingers. An unpopular decision if it holds true as too many Fed governors have speeches today.
South American Weather Pattern Update
South Am Forecast Wetter in Argentina; Needed Drying Ahead for Southern Brazil:
The South Am forecast remains non-threatening. Needed drying occurs across the southern half of Brazil’s soy belt over the next 10 days – which is welcomed following Nov 1-19 precipitation of 5.5-11.0” in Parana and Mato Grosso. A full rejuvenation of soil moisture occurs across Mato Grosso, Goias, and northeastern Brazilian soy areas. La Nina is not negatively impacting yield in Argentina. Scattered showers will dot the country over the next 10 days, with totals into Nov 30 pegged at .50-2.50”. Argentine soil moisture will be adequate/abundant ahead of key corn growth stages in December. Long term climate forecasts are calling for La Nina-based dryness in November have proven incorrect.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Extends Drop; Argentine Crop Rated 79% GD/EX vs. 26% Year Ago:
March CBOT corn ended weak and closed below the 50-day moving average for the first time since October 15th. The 100-day moving average crosses at $4.36 along with an uptrend line in March futures. A weekly close below $4.36 would call for a further drop to $4.10-$4.20 by late 2025. Corn is in a supply bear market with NASS’s estimate of the 2025 US yield at 186 BPA and a 16.75 Bil Bu crop. The focus of the market is shifting from US to the need to clear record supplies via competitive prices. Midwest cash ethanol is stagnant at $181/Gal and WASDE is overstating US corn use for ethanol at 5,600 Mil Bu. Amid record use of sorghum and curtailed future run rates, a better estimate is 5,500-5,525 Mil Bu. Even with recent record export sales & shipments won’t be the panacea to prevent US end stocks from swelling 2.4-2.6 Bil Bu. ARC’s concern is that principal buyers of US corn are in markets without demand growth. As of Oct 2nd, US export commitments to Japan are up 80% year-over-year at 148 Mil Bu. Commitments to Korea are up 14-fold at 83 Mil. Commitments to Columbia are up 30% at 84 Mil. Be on the lookout for fading US corn export sales once the USDA starts to publish data covering late Oct/Nov. The burden on sustained US export demand is placed upon South American weather. Additional rain fell across Argentina yesterday. A test of $4.10-$4.20 basis March is forecast.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
South Am Weather + Seasonal Slowdown in Export Pace. The Corn & Ethanol Report 11/21/2025
We kickoff the day with Fed Williams Speech at 6:30 A.M., Fed Barr Speech at 7:30 A.M., Fed Jefferson Speech at 7:45 A.M., Fed Collins & Fed Logan Speech at 8:00 A.M., S&P Global Composite PMI Flash, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash, and S&P Global Services PMI Flash at 8:45 A.M., Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Consumer Expectations Final, Michigan Current Conditions Final, Michigan Inflation on Expectations Final, and Wholesale Inventories at 9:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rigs Count at 12:00 P.M., Cattle on Feed and Milk Production at 2:00 P.M.
The delayed September jobs report offered mixed results. The Establishment Survey showed nonfarm payroll growth in September of 119,000, beating trade expectations of 50,000 jobs. The August figure was revised down from 22,000 jobs to a net 4,000 jobs lost. However, all of the jobs lost in August were government jobs, which fell by 22,000, while private payrolls grew by 18,000 jobs. All of the lost government jobs in August were added back in September, while private payrolls surged by 97,000 jobs, the fastest pace in 5 months. Manufacturing payrolls fell by 6,000 jobs in September after falling by a revised 15,000 jobs in August. Leisure/Hospitality added 47,000 jobs in September after adding 32,000 in August, while Construction payrolls grew by 19,000 after falling by a revised 14,000 in August. Transportation/Warehousing payrolls marked the largest September decline of 25,300, followed by a 20,000 payroll decline in the Professional/Business Service Sector. The Household Survey continued with mixed results. The September unemployment rate (U-3) ticked up to a 47-month high of 4.4%. Yet the September U-6 employment rate was down to 8%. The U-6 rate includes the U-3 unemployed, and adds discouraged, marginally, and part-time workers for economic reasons. The U-6 rate is noisier but offers a proper look at the economy’s labor tightness and better insight on household stress, which is missed in the U-3 unemployment rate. Overall, it is a neutral report showing job growth and a slight decline in overall employment (U-6) rate. Many analysts are looking to hold interest rates steady in December as a sticky inflation rate lingers. An unpopular decision if it holds true as too many Fed governors have speeches today.
South American Weather Pattern Update
South Am Forecast Wetter in Argentina; Needed Drying Ahead for Southern Brazil:
The South Am forecast remains non-threatening. Needed drying occurs across the southern half of Brazil’s soy belt over the next 10 days – which is welcomed following Nov 1-19 precipitation of 5.5-11.0” in Parana and Mato Grosso. A full rejuvenation of soil moisture occurs across Mato Grosso, Goias, and northeastern Brazilian soy areas. La Nina is not negatively impacting yield in Argentina. Scattered showers will dot the country over the next 10 days, with totals into Nov 30 pegged at .50-2.50”. Argentine soil moisture will be adequate/abundant ahead of key corn growth stages in December. Long term climate forecasts are calling for La Nina-based dryness in November have proven incorrect.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Extends Drop; Argentine Crop Rated 79% GD/EX vs. 26% Year Ago:
March CBOT corn ended weak and closed below the 50-day moving average for the first time since October 15th. The 100-day moving average crosses at $4.36 along with an uptrend line in March futures. A weekly close below $4.36 would call for a further drop to $4.10-$4.20 by late 2025. Corn is in a supply bear market with NASS’s estimate of the 2025 US yield at 186 BPA and a 16.75 Bil Bu crop. The focus of the market is shifting from US to the need to clear record supplies via competitive prices. Midwest cash ethanol is stagnant at $181/Gal and WASDE is overstating US corn use for ethanol at 5,600 Mil Bu. Amid record use of sorghum and curtailed future run rates, a better estimate is 5,500-5,525 Mil Bu. Even with recent record export sales & shipments won’t be the panacea to prevent US end stocks from swelling 2.4-2.6 Bil Bu. ARC’s concern is that principal buyers of US corn are in markets without demand growth. As of Oct 2nd, US export commitments to Japan are up 80% year-over-year at 148 Mil Bu. Commitments to Korea are up 14-fold at 83 Mil. Commitments to Columbia are up 30% at 84 Mil. Be on the lookout for fading US corn export sales once the USDA starts to publish data covering late Oct/Nov. The burden on sustained US export demand is placed upon South American weather. Additional rain fell across Argentina yesterday. A test of $4.10-$4.20 basis March is forecast.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374