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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 11/20/2025

By On November 20, 2025 - 1:42 PM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
DJ Analysts’ Estimates for November Cattle-On-Feed Report
  The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report was originally scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday. However, data is suspended if the government shutdown continues.
                                Average            Range
                              of estimates      of estimates
  On-feed Nov 1                   97.9             96.9 – 98.6
  Placed in Oct                   92.2             90.0 – 95.5
  Marketed in Oct                 92.5             92.0 – 93.4
   Analyst                      On-Feed       Placements    Marketed
                                Nov 1         in Oct         in Oct
   Allegiant Commodity Group     98.0           92.5         92.4
   Allendale Inc.                98.2           92.5         92.5
   HedgersEdge                   97.6           92.7         93.1
   Livestock Mktg Info Ctr       97.8           92.0         92.1
   Midwest Market Solutions      97.9           93.0         93.4
   NFC Markets                   96.9           90.5         92.4
   Texas A&M Extension           97.7           90.0         92.0
   US Commodities                98.6           95.5         92.4
DJ US Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Nov 20
    For the week ended Oct 2, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
   The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1. The
marketing year for cotton and rice began Aug 1. The marketing
year for corn, soybeans and sorghum began Sep 1.
    For soymeal and soyoil, “this year” is the 2025-2026 marketing
year, which began Oct 1, while “Last year” is 2024-25.
    Source: USDA
                 wk’s net change            total
                  in commitments         commitments            undlvd sales
              this year  next year    this yr    last yr   this yr   next yr
wheat             887.9        0.0    14844.2    11905.9    4835.4      24.9
  hrw             320.7        0.0     5850.5     2714.3    1796.2       2.5
  srw              28.1        0.0     2013.6     1944.4     574.6      22.4
  hrs             113.0        0.0     3611.8     3909.0    1052.8       0.0
  white           425.7        0.0     3151.5     3144.3    1382.3       0.0
  durum             0.4        0.0      216.8      193.9      29.5       0.0
corn             2259.7        0.0    29383.6    17649.7   22564.7     115.9
soybeans          919.4        5.0    12791.6    20003.4    9876.8       7.3
soymeal          864.4-a       2.4     4609.5     4917.6    4510.6       0.5
soyoil            24.4-b      11.4      103.7       79.6     102.0       4.0
upland cotton     199.0        0.0     4413.2     5144.5    3216.8     280.3
pima cotton         8.2        0.0      123.9      169.6      62.4       0.0
sorghum           170.2        0.0      648.1      668.8     578.0       0.0
barley              1.3        0.0       57.0       19.7      33.9       0.0
rice               28.4        0.0      812.2     1025.7     421.2       0.0
    -a: Includes new sales activity for Oct 1-2, which resulted
in a net increase of 328.3 thousand metric tons. Also includes
536.1 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2024-2025
    -b: Includes new sales activity for Oct 1-2, which resulted
in a net decrease of -11.8 thousand metric tons. Also includes
36.2 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2024-25.
WHEAT
General Comments:   Wheat closed lower yesterday on some speculative long liquidation before the weekly export sales reporzt.  The market expected to see increased ending stocks estimates but the increase in ending stocks on the US and world data were much larger than anticipated.  US ending stocks were estimated at 901 million bushels and world stocks were estimated at 271.4 million tons.  The Trump administration keeps talking up the potential Chinese demand.  There has been no new China demand news or rumors and the weekly export inspections were down.  The weekly USDA reports have started again but USDA is currently releasing old data and not current sales.  Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good.
Overnight News:    China bought 132,000 tons of US White Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up.  Support is at 524, 517, and 507 December, with resistance at 555, 560, and 573 December.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 513, 506, and 501 December, with resistance at 534, 540, and 545 December. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
RICE:
General Comments   Rice was sharply lower again yesterday and made new lows for the move on what appeared tzo be speculative selling.  Ideas are that the market is too cheap and that farmers have sold what needs to be sold for now.  The recent selling has been to be relentless and appears tied to the weaker prices in Asia and especially India.  Trends are down in the market.  The harvest is over in the delta and Mid South.  California is about done with its harvest.  Yields and quality are mixed, but quality appears better than a year ago.  The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1000, 988, and 976 January and resistance is at 1034, 1056, and 1068 January.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday on speculative selling tied to long liquidation and despite ideas and reports of strong export demand.  Trends are now mixed in the market.  The weekly export sales report from late September showed that Corn demand held strong.  USDA will issue additional reports this week.  The harvest is winding down in all areas of the Midwest.  There are ideas that US production might not be super strong due to disease such as rust to offset the demand losses.  Temperatures should average near to above normal this week and there are forecasts for some rain early this week.  Oats were mostly lower, but December was higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 429, 425, and 422 December, and resistance is at 442, 450, and 456 December.  Trends in Oats are mixed to up.  Support is at 302, 297, and 292 December, and resistance is at 316, 324, and 338 December.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation.   The US will have to compete with South America for sales in a diminishing Chinese market.  The Chinese hog herd is being reduced and this means less demand for Soybeans and Soybean Meal.  Forecasts call for light precipitation to be seen in the Midwest.  Temperatures will average near to above normal this week.  Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America due to the Trump tariff regime.
Overnight News:  China bought 462,000 tons of US Soybeaans.
Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up.  Support is at 1130, 1114, and 1103 January, and resistance is at 1169, 1184, and  1196 January.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.  Support is at 316.00, 311.00, and 307.00 December, and resistance is at 331.00, 337.00, and 343.00 December.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 5070, 4980, and 4900 December, with resistance at 5280, 5390, and 5480 December.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments:   Palm Oil futures were a little higher today in sympathy with the price action in Chicago.  Futures reacted to the stronger Ringgit and weaker Chicago prices late in the week and MPOB data from early in the week that showed less than expected ending stocks for the month.  There was some buying seen on Indonesian plans to increase the use of Pam Oil in biofuels blends.  There are ideas of increasing supplies, but those ideas are now turning as production enters a seasonal slowdown.  There are still ideas of increasing production.  The market sentiment overall is turning bearish on ideas of increasing stocks to the market and on some concerns about demand   Canola was lower.  Trends are mixed on the daily charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 644.00, 636.00, and 632.00 January, with resistance at 661.00, 671.00, and 680.00 January.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 4160, 4110, and 4070 February, with resistance at 4250, 4300, and 4370 February.
DJ Malaysia Nov. 1-20 Palm Oil Exports 14% Lower on Month at 828,680 Tons, AmSpec Says
  By Megan Cheah
  Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Nov. 1-20 period are estimated 14% lower on month at 828,680 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Thursday.
  The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
  (All figures in metric tons)
                        Nov. 1-20      Oct. 1-20
   RBD Palm Olein        201,392        170,563
   RBD Palm Oil           89,797        131,658
   RBD Palm Stearin       56,016         79,706
   Crude Palm Oil        206,820        126,169
   Total*                828,680        965,066
  *Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 20
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec          1030.00    -20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1045.00    -15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1047.50    -15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep  1037.50    -15.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec           1035.00    -20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1050.00    -15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1052.50    -15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1042.50    -15.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec           1015.00    -20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec           1005.00    -20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec            4,150.00   -40.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec            415.00     +03.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.1545)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 28
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr          1135.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1092.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep  1012.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec  1002.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1007.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1140.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1097.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1017.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec   1007.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1012.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1112.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1070.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            4,830.00   +70.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            494.00     +07.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.4363)
  (END) Dow Jones Newswires
  03-28-25 0623ET
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