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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Softs Report 11/19/2025

By On November 19, 2025 - 10:24 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
COTTON
General Comments:   Cotton was higher again yesterday as traders hope for some new Cotton demand .  USDA on Friday showed higher than expected production at 14.23 million bales.  Demand was increased by 20 million bales, but ending stocks were sharply higher at 4.4 million bales.  A lack of new Chinese demand has been important and a reason to see lower US prices.  The US harvest is over in most areas and initial yield reports are positive.  The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 62.00, 61.60, and 60.90 December, with resistance of 63.50, 63.80 and 64.80 December.
DJ U.S. August Cotton Exports-Nov 19
    In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
                                      ——- In Kilograms ——-
                                Aug 25      Jul 25      Jun 25        Aug 24
Upland, under 1 inch         2,542,910   4,171,386   6,325,069     1,812,508
  1 to 1 1/8 inch           36,824,060  53,951,586  75,355,041    34,866,369
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc    5,856,773   9,169,845   8,960,398     5,941,123
  upland 1 1/8 and over     94,745,533 136,818,929 128,900,950   106,532,860
All cotton                 139,969,276 204,111,746 219,541,458   149,152,860
                              ——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
                                Aug 25      Jul 25      Jun 25        Aug 24
Upland, under 1 inch            11,679      19,159      29,051         8,325
  1 to 1 1/8 inch              169,132     247,798     346,103       160,140
  upland 1 1/8 and over         26,900      42,117      41,155        27,287
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc      435,163     628,404     592,037       489,301
All cotton                     642,874     937,478   1,008,346       685,053
FCOJ
General Comments:  Futures were a little higher in range trading yesterday and the trends are mixed on the daily and weekly charts.  FCOJ from Brazil has been subjected to tariffs and those continue for the most part.  The weather is considered good for production here and in Brazil and Mexico.  Development conditions are good in Florida and in Brazil now with occasional showers in Florida and dry weather in Brazil.
Overnight News:  ICE said that 127 notices were posted for delivery against November futures and that total deliveries for the month are 428 contracts.
Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down.  Support is at 152.00, 146.00, and 150.00 January, with resistance at 184.00, 192.00, and 206.00 January.
COFFEE
General Comments:  New York and London were higher yesterday.  Secretary Bessent last week said that certain products will get reduced tariffs soon to help lower prices, but there are still 40% tariffs imposed on Coffee from Brazil.  Coffee from Brazil had been subjected to a 50% tariff.  It has been a little too dry in Brazil for best yield potential.  Vietnam has seen too much rain as typhoons hit the country, but rain is returning to more normal levels now.  Activity remained quiet in Vietnam on limited supplies as offers of fresh beans from the current harvest have yet to pick up.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 333.00 ct/lb.  ICE NY aid that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 403.00, 390.00, and 381.00 December, and resistance is at 424.00, 430.00 and 436.00 December.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 4350, 4140, and 3940 January, with resistance at 4680, 4790, and 4850 January.
DJ U.S. August Coffee Imports – Nov 19
Source: U.S. Commerce Department
    (Data is for non-roasted and non-decaffeinated arabica coffee,
in kilograms)
Origin               Jan-Aug 25           Jul 25          Aug 25
World Total          757,630,472      92,263,328      77,092,672
Angola                    10,500
Argentina                 38,350
Belgium                  181,551
Bolivia                  247,696          39,200          19,600
Brazil               242,053,961      22,329,994      18,641,784
Burma                        184
Burundi                  684,247          37,371         100,082
Cameroon                  45,200
Canada                     2,308
China                     12,288                          12,120
Colombia             184,446,790      20,203,529      24,645,612
Congo                     19,200
Costa Rica            21,147,532       2,977,854       2,424,632
Democratic Repub           6,000
Djibouti                  19,200                          19,200
Dominican Republ          65,472                          38,848
Ecuador                  307,602                          19,150
El Salvador            8,017,477       1,222,576         697,911
Ethiopia              19,700,080       4,628,294       2,914,275
France                       269
Germany                  431,582
Guatemala             54,490,397       8,654,289       4,222,360
Haiti                     40,540             320
Honduras              53,663,340       6,782,922       3,390,102
India                    770,537          84,988         124,989
Indonesia             21,438,966       2,235,188       2,343,278
Italy                      1,999             798
Jamaica                   55,673           3,735           6,135
Kenya                  7,231,036       1,134,618         715,580
Laos                      53,200
Malawi                    35,667          19,647
Mexico                43,858,812       8,057,076       5,427,849
Nepal                        180
Netherlands               57,908
Nicaragua             36,420,471       5,049,782       4,530,985
Panama                   402,271          19,670          18,665
Papua New Guinea       3,620,811         345,600         336,900
Peru                  12,532,350       2,465,670       3,286,233
Philippines                5,899                             745
Rwanda                   939,466          19,586          19,200
South Africa              38,720
Switzerland               18,975
Taiwan                    20,360                          20,360
Tanzania               6,559,213         136,000          55,200
Thailand                  82,400           3,140          22,500
Timor-Leste               81,000
Uganda                 7,631,563         885,099         946,723
United Kingdom            28,034             734
Venezuela                541,269          93,462          95,900
Vietnam               28,016,382       4,309,951       1,986,436
Yemen                    116,784          35,035           9,318
Zambia                 1,438,760         487,200
SUGAR
General Comments:  New York and London were mostly lower yesterday, but London March was higher.  There are still ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue.  Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong, but the south center harvest is almost over.  Too much rain has been reported in northern areas.  The prospect of a big global surplus in the 2025/26 season was keeping the market on the defensive with a rise in production in India and Thailand set to increased supplies while global consumption is expected to remain steady.  India plans to allow sugar exports of 1.5 million metric tons in the new season as a decline in the diversion of sugar for ethanol production is expected to leave a larger domestic surplus.  China imported 750,000 metric tons of sugar in October, up 39% on the same month last year.  The International Sugar Organization forecast on Monday there would be a global sugar surplus of 1.63 million metric tons in the 2025/26 season, driven by a rise in production.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down.  Support is at 1400, 1370, and 1340 March and resistance is at 1520, 1540, and 1610 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down.  Support is at 408.00, 399.00, and 393.00 March, with resistance at 437.00, 445.00, and 452.00 March.
COCOA
General Comments:  New York was lower and London closed higher yesterday on currency considerations.  A big main crop harvest is anticipated in West Africa.  Demand concerns in West Africa continue.  Light rains mixed with heat in Ivory Coast’s cocoa-growing regions last week signaled a positive outlook for the main crop.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market feels that there is less demand and the lack of demand is expected to continue.  Ivory Coast’s cocoa grind fell 25.4% year-on-year at the start of the 2025/26 season in October to 44,075 metric tons..
cocoa arrivals in ports in top grower Ivory Coast were picking up after a slow start to the season. A total of about 105,000 tons were delivered between November 10 and November 16, up from 94,000 tons in the same week of the previous season,
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down.  Support is at 5120, 5060, and 5000 December, with resistance at 5780, 6110, and 6410 December.  Trends in London are mixed to down.  Support is at 3920, 3860, and 3800 December, with resistance at 4530, 4630, and 4780 December.
DJ U.S. August Cocoa Imports – Nov 19
Source: U.S. Commerce Department
    (Data is for cocoa beans, whole or broken, raw or roasted, in kilograms)
Origin                Jan-Aug’25          Jul’25          Aug’25
World Total          259,022,379      17,099,057      18,003,403
Belgium                      840
Belize                    43,065                          28,050
Bolivia                    6,050
Cameroon                   1,965             990
China                        540
Colombia               4,644,608         303,756         340,272
Costa Rica                24,375          24,375
Cote d’Ivoire         77,212,813       1,451,450       1,726,725
Dominican Republ      20,726,291       3,707,240       1,711,500
Ecuador               79,978,118       4,951,856       8,836,477
El Salvador               13,734                           1,440
Fiji                          50
France                    12,300           1,500           4,400
Ghana                 46,080,551         355,120         465,489
Grenada                      315
Guatemala                 19,015             345
Haiti                    101,785          25,200          13,585
India                     14,970                          10,020
Indonesia                    252             252
Italy                      8,241                           3,249
Madagascar                38,601
Malaysia                   1,972                           1,972
Mexico                    30,765           9,812           2,541
Netherlands              440,974         440,419
Nicaragua                 31,336           2,312           1,088
Nigeria               12,581,353       2,628,062         850,731
Papua New Guinea       1,750,000         200,000         865,000
Peru                   9,297,790       1,217,744       2,919,701
Philippines               20,396                             523
Spain                      2,177
Switzerland               32,351                          14,111
Tanzania                 146,860          38,040
Togo                     326,781
Trinidad and Tob          25,231                           6,972
Uganda                 3,472,846       1,519,787
Venezuela              1,932,819         220,797         199,557
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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