Diesel Be the Day. The Energy Report 11/19/2025

 Diesel be the day, when it went sky high. Diesel be the day, when you got no supply. You say that crude will lead, you know it’s a lie. Cause diesel be the day, when it flies!

Big moves! Diesel movers are shaking up the global energy market as new U.S. sanctions take aim at Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, forcing companies to wind down transactions by November 21 and according to the American Petroleum Institute, US crude stocks rose by around 4.45 million barrels last week and diesel prices are screaming potential shortages. While Cushing, OK stocks fell by 800,000 and gas supply rose by 1.5 million barrels, distillates had a less than comforting increase of 600,000.

The build in crude, some say, signals weaker demand in the world’s largest oil consumer, fueling fears of an oversupplied global market yet demand for petroleum as of last week was still over 20. 077 million barrels a day.

Meanwhile, diesel prices didn’t just rise, they rocketed straight up hitting a level not seen in 19 months! Just look at the numbers: NYMEX December ULSD shot up 15.41 cents to land at $2.7011 per gallon, the highest we’ve seen since the spring of 2024.

Meanwhile, December RBOB joined the party with a 92-point jump to $1.9993 a gallon.

The diesel crack spread versus WTI added $5.64 a barrel to reach a jaw-dropping $52.71 a barrel—its hottest streak since September of last year. The message is clear: diesel is driving the bus, and it’s not looking back. Do you want to get involved? Call Phil Flynn 888-264-5665.

Platts is reporting that Senator Lindsey Graham is increasing pressure by announcing he will propose a bill allowing President Donald Trump to impose secondary sanctions on countries that keep purchasing Russian energy. Graham explained that this legislation aims to grant President Trump greater flexibility and authority to pressure Putin toward peace by targeting both Putin and supportive nations like Iran.

Yet the diesel also is focused on Venezuela that currently exports about 700,000 barrels per day of heavy crude, much of it destined for U.S. Gulf Coast refiners. While the global oil market is well-supplied right now, most of the surplus is light and medium sweet crude. We need heavy to max out diesel leading to the tale of two markets with diesel signaling shortages while crude sweet is signaling oversupply.

The other key thing is going to be weather, and we saw both the diesel prices and the natural gas prices react to that in varying degrees. Fox Weather isn’t talking about record-breaking high temperatures in some parts of the country but is warning to beware of a potential Arctic blast that could be the coldest start to December we’ve seen in many years. I don’t think you’re going to be able to leave your turkey outside to thaw as temperatures may plummet by Thanksgiving.

According to EBW Analytics, natural gas prices moved up slightly after a period of consolidation, reflecting expectations of colder weather ahead. Short-term signals still point to strong supply entering the winter season: Lower 48 storage levels are at 3,960 Bcf, Canadian inventories are at an all-time high, mid-to-late November weather remains mild, and production continues to ramp up as temperatures drop. However, the likelihood of December cold is increasing, with forecast maps turning blue in the more reliable 11- to 15-day range. With prices hovering near the bottom of the hockey-stick shaped curve and the market’s asymmetric risk/reward profile, there’s potential for upward price movement. While storage surpluses could withstand even a moderately cold December, growing bullish sentiment and rapidly shrinking surpluses might encourage the market to more fully price in the possibility of persistent winter cold, which could push NYMEX prices higher—all based on EBW Analytics’ analysis.

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