Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with ADP Employment Change Weekly at 7:15 A.M., NY Fed Services Activity Index at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production at 8:15 A.M., Factory Orders MoM, NAHB Housing Market Index, and Factory Orders ex Transportation at 9:00 A.M., Fed Barr Speech at 9:30 A.M., API Energy Stocks, Monthly Budget Statement, Net Long-term TIC Flows, Foreign Bond Investment, and Overall Net Capital Flows at 3:30 P.M.
The NY Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped to a 12-month high of 18.7 in November. This marked the 2nd consecutive month of double-digit gains, which hasn’t happened since December 2021. The index is a diffusion index, comprised of 23 sun-indices that measure current conditions, New Orders, Average Employee workweek, and General Business Conditions marked the most substantial gains. The 6-month manufacturing outlook was less optimistic and fell to 19.1 from 30.3 in October. The Capital Expenditures Index was the best gain of 14.4 while 8 of the 12 sub-indexes were lower for the month.
South American Weather Pattern Update
Northern Brazilian Monsoon Season Kicks into Higher Gear; Drier Pattern Ahead for Argentina/Southern Brazil:
South America’s climate pattern remains non-threatening. A welcome shift in pattern occurs this week. Daily showers will ease abnormal dryness across far north/northeast Brazil, and the wettest part of Paraguay, Southern Brazil, and Argentina will be allowed to dry. Norther Brazil’s monsoon intensifies beyond the next 4-5 days, which is typical between mid-Nov and early Dec. Precipitation accumulation across Mato Grosso, Goias, and all of northeastern Brazil in the 6-10 day period is pegged in a range of 2-4”. Locally heavier totals favor areas of Goias and Minas Gerais. Ag Resources (ARC) notes that Dec-Jan represents the wettest period of the year at northern latitudes of Brazil. ARC is not concerned about the development of dryness recently in southern Mato Grosso and north fringe of soy producing states Para, Tocontins & Bahia. Soil moisture there normalizes in the next two weeks.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Rallies, Stops Short of 200-Day Moving Average; Gulf Basis Unresponsive to Hefty US Exports:
CBOT corn futures ended higher in sympathy with soybeans, but the rally lacked conviction. Dec was unable to settle above key resistance at $4.36. The US has a record large corn crop of 16.6 Bil Bu and flashes of US corn sales while the government was closed were 2.3 MMT’s less than the same period last year. Questions abound on US con sales and their ability to achieve the USDA’s 3,075 Mil Bu target. The Mexican peso declined as US President Trump hinted that he is willing to fight drug trade on Mexican soil. US weekly export inspections were 81 Mil Bu, vs. 58 Mil the previous week and the largest for any week since summer 2021. Seasonally, physical US corn exports don’t tend to peak until March. However, Gulf basis continues to sag and at $.81 over sits at the lowest level in five months. The spot basis at St. Louis is quoted at $.15 over vs. $.30 over in November 2024. The cash market argues for weakening US corn export demand. March ’26 above $4.50 and Dec ’26 above $4.70 warrant catch-up sales. Be prepared to finish 25/26 sales on rallies. There is no shortage of corn.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
No Compelling Bullish Headline for Corn. The Corn & Ethanol Report 11/18/2025
We kickoff the day with ADP Employment Change Weekly at 7:15 A.M., NY Fed Services Activity Index at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production at 8:15 A.M., Factory Orders MoM, NAHB Housing Market Index, and Factory Orders ex Transportation at 9:00 A.M., Fed Barr Speech at 9:30 A.M., API Energy Stocks, Monthly Budget Statement, Net Long-term TIC Flows, Foreign Bond Investment, and Overall Net Capital Flows at 3:30 P.M.
The NY Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped to a 12-month high of 18.7 in November. This marked the 2nd consecutive month of double-digit gains, which hasn’t happened since December 2021. The index is a diffusion index, comprised of 23 sun-indices that measure current conditions, New Orders, Average Employee workweek, and General Business Conditions marked the most substantial gains. The 6-month manufacturing outlook was less optimistic and fell to 19.1 from 30.3 in October. The Capital Expenditures Index was the best gain of 14.4 while 8 of the 12 sub-indexes were lower for the month.
South American Weather Pattern Update
Northern Brazilian Monsoon Season Kicks into Higher Gear; Drier Pattern Ahead for Argentina/Southern Brazil:
South America’s climate pattern remains non-threatening. A welcome shift in pattern occurs this week. Daily showers will ease abnormal dryness across far north/northeast Brazil, and the wettest part of Paraguay, Southern Brazil, and Argentina will be allowed to dry. Norther Brazil’s monsoon intensifies beyond the next 4-5 days, which is typical between mid-Nov and early Dec. Precipitation accumulation across Mato Grosso, Goias, and all of northeastern Brazil in the 6-10 day period is pegged in a range of 2-4”. Locally heavier totals favor areas of Goias and Minas Gerais. Ag Resources (ARC) notes that Dec-Jan represents the wettest period of the year at northern latitudes of Brazil. ARC is not concerned about the development of dryness recently in southern Mato Grosso and north fringe of soy producing states Para, Tocontins & Bahia. Soil moisture there normalizes in the next two weeks.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Rallies, Stops Short of 200-Day Moving Average; Gulf Basis Unresponsive to Hefty US Exports:
CBOT corn futures ended higher in sympathy with soybeans, but the rally lacked conviction. Dec was unable to settle above key resistance at $4.36. The US has a record large corn crop of 16.6 Bil Bu and flashes of US corn sales while the government was closed were 2.3 MMT’s less than the same period last year. Questions abound on US con sales and their ability to achieve the USDA’s 3,075 Mil Bu target. The Mexican peso declined as US President Trump hinted that he is willing to fight drug trade on Mexican soil. US weekly export inspections were 81 Mil Bu, vs. 58 Mil the previous week and the largest for any week since summer 2021. Seasonally, physical US corn exports don’t tend to peak until March. However, Gulf basis continues to sag and at $.81 over sits at the lowest level in five months. The spot basis at St. Louis is quoted at $.15 over vs. $.30 over in November 2024. The cash market argues for weakening US corn export demand. March ’26 above $4.50 and Dec ’26 above $4.70 warrant catch-up sales. Be prepared to finish 25/26 sales on rallies. There is no shortage of corn.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374