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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 11/18/2025

By On November 18, 2025 - 11:19 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Nov 17
WA_GR101
Washington, DC    Mon   Nov 17, 2025   USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
                  REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING NOV 13, 2025
                            — METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
                                                   CURRENT     PREVIOUS
             ———– WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR
  GRAIN      11/13/2025  11/06/2025  11/14/2024    TO DATE     TO DATE
BARLEY              0           0           0        5,167        4,920
CORN        2,053,932   1,484,614     873,661   15,838,871    9,155,267
FLAXSEED           24           0           0          288          192
MIXED               0           0           0            0           49
OATS              299           0           0        3,891          148
RYE                 0           0           0            0            0
SORGHUM        83,301      33,225      62,622      345,766      771,822
SOYBEANS    1,176,307   1,124,668   2,267,076   10,109,477   17,587,634
SUNFLOWER           0           0           0            0            0
WHEAT         246,533     291,443     197,138   12,363,115   10,363,288
Total       3,560,396   2,933,950   3,400,497   38,666,575   37,883,320
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED;  SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA
DJ Analysts’ Estimates for November Cattle-On-Feed Report
  The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report was originally scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday. However, data is suspended if the government shutdown continues.
                                Average            Range
                              of estimates      of estimates
  On-feed Nov 1                   97.9             96.9 – 98.6
  Placed in Oct                   92.2             90.0 – 95.5
  Marketed in Oct                 92.5             92.0 – 93.4
   Analyst                      On-Feed       Placements    Marketed
                                Nov 1         in Oct         in Oct
   Allegiant Commodity Group     98.0           92.5         92.4
   Allendale Inc.                98.2           92.5         92.5
   HedgersEdge                   97.6           92.7         93.1
   Livestock Mktg Info Ctr       97.8           92.0         92.1
   Midwest Market Solutions      97.9           93.0         93.4
   NFC Markets                   96.9           90.5         92.4
   Texas A&M Extension           97.7           90.0         92.0
   US Commodities                98.6           95.5         92.4
WHEAT
General Comments:   Wheat closed higher yesterday on some speculative buying.  The USDA WASDE and production reports.  The market expected to see increased ending stocks estimates but the increase in ending stocks on the US and world data were much larger than anticipated.  US ending stocks were estimated at 901 million bushels and world stocks were estimated at 271.4 million tons.  The Trump administration keeps talking up the potential Chinese demand.  There has been no new China demand news or rumors and the weekly export inspections were down.  The weekly USDA reports have started again but USDA is currently releasing old data and not current sales.  Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down.  Support is at 524, 517, and 505 December, with resistance at 555, 560, and 573 December.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up.  Support is at 506, 501, and 494 December, with resistance at 540, 545, and 548 December. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
RICE:
General Comments   Rice was a little lower yesterday.  USDA on Friday noted reduced production for All Rice at 207.3 million cwt and for Long Grain at 152.7 million cwt.  Demand was unchanged and ending stocks were down to 51.9 million cwt for All Rice and 36.0 million cwt for Long Grain.  Ideas are that the market is too cheap and that farmers have sold what needs to be sold for now.  The recent selling has been to be relentless and appears tied to the weaker prices in Asia and especially India.  Trends are down in the market.  The harvest is wrapping up in the delta and Mid South.  California is also about done with its harvest.  Yields and quality are mixed, but quality appears better than a year ago.  The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1020, 1012, and 1000 January and resistance is at 1074, 1086, and 1101 January.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher yesterday on ideas and reports of strong export demand.  USDA on Friday showed higher than expected production at 16.752 billion bushels and higher than expected ending stocks at 2.154 billion bushels.  Export demand was increased by 100 million bushels but domestic demand was left unchanged   Trends are now mixed in the market.  The weekly export sales report from late September showed that Corn demand held strong.  USDA will issue additional reports this week.  The harvest is winding down in all areas of the Midwest.  There are ideas that US production might not be super strong due to disease such as rust to offset the demand losses.  Temperatures should average near to above normal this week and there are forecasts for some rain early this week.  Oats were higher last week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 425, 422, and 419 December, and resistance is at 442, 450, and 456 December.  Trends in Oats are mixed to up.  Support is at 302, 297, and 292 December, and resistance is at 316, 324, and 338 December.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday on hopes for new Chinese demand.  President Trump raised the issue again over the weekend and administration officials said more demand was coming at some point during the current crop year.  USDA estimated production below trade expectations at 4.253 billion bushels and ending stocks just below trade expectations at 290 million bushels.  Domestic demand was unchanged but USDA cut export demand and apparently does not think China will be a big buyer of US Soybeans in the near term.  There was no talk of new Chinese demand although the market hopes for more.  China bought cargoes over a week ago but has not been reported to buy anything since.   China is almost done with purchases for this year and as the US will have to compete with South America for sales in a diminishing Chinese market.  The Chinese hog herd is being reduced and this means less demand for Soybeans and Soybean Meal.  The US government has announced that it will support farmers with money, but so far no money has been flowing.  Forecasts call for precipitation to be seen in the Midwest.  Temperatures will average near to above normal this week.  Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America due to the Trump tariff regime.
Overnight News:  Chinaa bought 792,000 tons of US Soybeeans.
Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are up.  Support is at 1114, 1103, and 1098 January, and resistance is at 1160, 1172, and  1184 January.  Trends in Soybean Meal are up.  Support is at 320.00, 316.00, and 311.00 December, and resistance is at 331.00, 337.00, and 343.00 December.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 4930, 4890, and 4770 December, with resistance at 5130, 5040, and 5180 December.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments:   Palm Oil futures were a little higher today in sympathy with the price action in Chicago.  Futures reacted to the stronger Ringgit and weaker Chicago prices late in the week and MPOB data from early in the week that showed less than expected ending stocks for the month.  There was some buying seen on Indonesian plans to increase the use of Pam Oil in biofuels blends.  There are ideas of increasing supplies, but those ideas are now turning as production enters a seasonal slowdown.  There are still ideas of increasing production.  The market sentiment overall is turning bearish on ideas of increasing stocks to the market and on some concerns about demand   Canola was a little higher.  Trends are mixed on the daily charts and are turning up on the weekly charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up.  Support is at 636.00, 632.00, and 625.00 January, with resistance at 661.00, 671.00, and 680.00 January.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 4110, 4070, and 4030 February, with resistance at 4200, 4250, and 4300 February.
DJ Malaysia Nov. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports Down 10% on Month to 702,692 Tons, AmSpec Says
  By Amanda Lee
  Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Nov. 1-15 period are estimated down 10.03% on month at 702,692 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Monday.
  The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
  (All figures in metric tons)
                        Nov. 1-15       Oct. 1-15
   RBD Palm Olein         162,345         153,143
   RBD Palm Oil            72,778         106,538
   RBD Palm Stearin        50,754          68,736
   Crude Palm Oil         159,040          92,869
   Total*                 702,692         781,006
  *Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 18
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec          1045.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1052.50    +10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1055.00    +10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep  1045.00    +10.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec           1050.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1057.50    +10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1060.00    +10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1050.00    +10.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec           1022.50     00.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec           1020.00    +02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec          4,200.00    +70.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec            412.00    +02.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.16)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 28
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr          1135.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1092.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep  1012.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec  1002.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1007.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1140.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1097.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1017.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec   1007.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1012.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1112.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1070.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            4,830.00   +70.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            494.00     +07.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.4363)
  (END) Dow Jones Newswires
  03-28-25 0623ET
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