After more than a month of being shutdown, the government is officially back open. That means a resumption of USDA reports, with most traders looking to get their hands on the Export Sales data and CFTC numbers. Also released were the monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Friday, though from a market standpoint, bulls were wishing the government would have remained shut. Especially for the corn and wheat, the data published gave bulls little to be excited for. It seems after a month without USDA data, an effective hard reset was ineffective in giving the grain bulls a break in the from the bearish data. Too bad it’s not as easy as unplugging it and plugging it back in.
Corn futures saw a 3 cent gain in the December contract this week despite the weaker Friday action. The reason for the weaker action was USDA’s corn yield tallied at 186 bpa, down 0.7 bpa and shy of the 2.7 bpa reduction analysts were looking for. That took the ending stocks estimate up 44 mbu to 2.154 bbu. The weekly Export Inspections report showed 1.425 MMT of corn shipped in the week of 11/6, down 16.7% from last week and well above the same week last year. Year to date exports are 65.73% larger than last year at 13.725 MMT. Weekly EIA data saw ethanol production back down from the previous record number, down 48,000 barrels per day in the week ending on November 7 at 1.075 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol stocks saw a draw of 436,000 barrels at 22.219 million barrels.
Wheat was mixed again this week, as the winter wheats continued their losses. December MPLS spring wheat saw a 6 ¾ cent gain. The Chicago December contract was 1/2 cent lower, with December KC HRW futures 4 cents in the red. Much of the weakness came via USDA data on Friday, as US ending stocks were up 57 mbu to 901 mbu. World stocks also saw a 7.37 MMT increase, as production saw a massive 12.7 MMT hike. Export Inspections were tallied at 290,513 MT, which was 17.9% below last year and a 17.07% drop from last week. In the first 5 months of the marketing year shipments are 19.18% above last year at 12.12 MMT.
Soybeans found early strength was limited by the Friday losses, as the January contract was up 7 ½ cents this week. December soybean meal was back up another $5.40/ton (1.4%) on the week, as bean oil was 47 points (0.95%) higher. USDA showed bean yield down 0.5 bpa on Friday, as expected at 53 bpa, with stocks down just 10 mbu to 290 mbu. A backlog of large export sale announcements from the shutdown were reported on Friday, with just 332,000 MT sold to China and 616,000 MT to unknown, well shy of the 12 MMT in reported commitments as reported by the White House. FGIS export inspections data showed soybean shipments rising 10.5% from the previous week to 1.09 MMT in the week of 11/6. That was still 53.93% below the same week last year as the lack of China as a destination is trimming back the seasonal pattern. Marketing year shipments are now 42% below last year at 8.89 MMT.
Live cattle was back and forth on the week ad December lost $2.20. Cash trade slipped back this week, down to $225-228 for much of the country with the north on the weaker side. Feeders saw two different limit move days, with one higher and the other lower, as January was up just 90 cents this week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was weaker, down $3.23 week/week to $343.73. Wholesale boxed beef prices fell back this week. Choice was $5.67/cwt lower (-1.5%) this week to $370.73, as Select was down $6.85 (-1.9%) at $354.24 as of Friday. Weekly cattle slaughter was estimated at 578,000 head by the USDA. That was a 16,000 head hike from last week and 32,810 head below the same week last year.
Hogs were weaker, despite back and forth trade, with December down 90 cents this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $2.70 this week at $88.83 as of November 12. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout held below the $100 level this week, down another $1.76 to $97.22/cwt. The butt primal was the only reported higher, with the picnic and ham primals leading the charge lower. Weekly hog slaughter totaled 2.716 million head this week according to USDA. That was 88,000 head above last week and 83,820 head above of the same week in 2024.
Cotton futures extended the losses this week, down another 192 points this week. Some USDA reports were back on this week though delayed. Export Sales were for the week of 9/25, with 155,414 RB sold and shipments at just 117,595 RB. Crop Production data showed a 58 pound increase in yield to 919 lbs/acre, as production was up 900,000 bales to 14.12 million Stocks were up 700,000 bales to 43 million bales. This week’s Adjusted World Price was released for the first time since the shutdown at 51.83 cents/lb.
Market Watch
With the government now back to open the Crop Progress report should be released on Monday afternoon, as Export Inspections, which have been released all along will be out in the morning. NOPA data will also be out on Monday. EIA data will be released on Wednesday. The Export Sales report will be out on the normal Thursday released, showing data from the week of October 2, with the following 6 weeks showing 2 reports to catch up on the backlog from the shutdown. Thursday is also the expiration of November feeder cattle futures and options. USDA will release Cattle on Feed data on Friday afternoon, with December grain options expiring.
Tech Talk; January Soybeans
January soybeans have had a nice $1.40 rally over the last month plus. For the record that exceeded the entire trading range of the previous marketing year. Taking the life of contract high to LOC low, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement resistance was at $11.55 1/4. We got within 3 cents on Friday’s high. That would also qualify as a key reversal if the follow-though shows up next week MACD says to hold up, as it is still bullish. The first area to watch is the Monday measuring gap at $11.18 ¼ If bulls defend that, it would be a bullish sign to try for $11.66 ½ (the gap count). Filling the Monday gap would likely indicate a test of the Billinger midline at $11.08 ¼, with round number $11 near the 38.2% Fib retracements support off the rally at $10.98 ¾.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Hard Reset. Ag Marketing Report 11/17/2025
After more than a month of being shutdown, the government is officially back open. That means a resumption of USDA reports, with most traders looking to get their hands on the Export Sales data and CFTC numbers. Also released were the monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Friday, though from a market standpoint, bulls were wishing the government would have remained shut. Especially for the corn and wheat, the data published gave bulls little to be excited for. It seems after a month without USDA data, an effective hard reset was ineffective in giving the grain bulls a break in the from the bearish data. Too bad it’s not as easy as unplugging it and plugging it back in.
Corn futures saw a 3 cent gain in the December contract this week despite the weaker Friday action. The reason for the weaker action was USDA’s corn yield tallied at 186 bpa, down 0.7 bpa and shy of the 2.7 bpa reduction analysts were looking for. That took the ending stocks estimate up 44 mbu to 2.154 bbu. The weekly Export Inspections report showed 1.425 MMT of corn shipped in the week of 11/6, down 16.7% from last week and well above the same week last year. Year to date exports are 65.73% larger than last year at 13.725 MMT. Weekly EIA data saw ethanol production back down from the previous record number, down 48,000 barrels per day in the week ending on November 7 at 1.075 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol stocks saw a draw of 436,000 barrels at 22.219 million barrels.
Wheat was mixed again this week, as the winter wheats continued their losses. December MPLS spring wheat saw a 6 ¾ cent gain. The Chicago December contract was 1/2 cent lower, with December KC HRW futures 4 cents in the red. Much of the weakness came via USDA data on Friday, as US ending stocks were up 57 mbu to 901 mbu. World stocks also saw a 7.37 MMT increase, as production saw a massive 12.7 MMT hike. Export Inspections were tallied at 290,513 MT, which was 17.9% below last year and a 17.07% drop from last week. In the first 5 months of the marketing year shipments are 19.18% above last year at 12.12 MMT.
Soybeans found early strength was limited by the Friday losses, as the January contract was up 7 ½ cents this week. December soybean meal was back up another $5.40/ton (1.4%) on the week, as bean oil was 47 points (0.95%) higher. USDA showed bean yield down 0.5 bpa on Friday, as expected at 53 bpa, with stocks down just 10 mbu to 290 mbu. A backlog of large export sale announcements from the shutdown were reported on Friday, with just 332,000 MT sold to China and 616,000 MT to unknown, well shy of the 12 MMT in reported commitments as reported by the White House. FGIS export inspections data showed soybean shipments rising 10.5% from the previous week to 1.09 MMT in the week of 11/6. That was still 53.93% below the same week last year as the lack of China as a destination is trimming back the seasonal pattern. Marketing year shipments are now 42% below last year at 8.89 MMT.
Live cattle was back and forth on the week ad December lost $2.20. Cash trade slipped back this week, down to $225-228 for much of the country with the north on the weaker side. Feeders saw two different limit move days, with one higher and the other lower, as January was up just 90 cents this week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was weaker, down $3.23 week/week to $343.73. Wholesale boxed beef prices fell back this week. Choice was $5.67/cwt lower (-1.5%) this week to $370.73, as Select was down $6.85 (-1.9%) at $354.24 as of Friday. Weekly cattle slaughter was estimated at 578,000 head by the USDA. That was a 16,000 head hike from last week and 32,810 head below the same week last year.
Hogs were weaker, despite back and forth trade, with December down 90 cents this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $2.70 this week at $88.83 as of November 12. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout held below the $100 level this week, down another $1.76 to $97.22/cwt. The butt primal was the only reported higher, with the picnic and ham primals leading the charge lower. Weekly hog slaughter totaled 2.716 million head this week according to USDA. That was 88,000 head above last week and 83,820 head above of the same week in 2024.
Cotton futures extended the losses this week, down another 192 points this week. Some USDA reports were back on this week though delayed. Export Sales were for the week of 9/25, with 155,414 RB sold and shipments at just 117,595 RB. Crop Production data showed a 58 pound increase in yield to 919 lbs/acre, as production was up 900,000 bales to 14.12 million Stocks were up 700,000 bales to 43 million bales. This week’s Adjusted World Price was released for the first time since the shutdown at 51.83 cents/lb.
Market Watch
With the government now back to open the Crop Progress report should be released on Monday afternoon, as Export Inspections, which have been released all along will be out in the morning. NOPA data will also be out on Monday. EIA data will be released on Wednesday. The Export Sales report will be out on the normal Thursday released, showing data from the week of October 2, with the following 6 weeks showing 2 reports to catch up on the backlog from the shutdown. Thursday is also the expiration of November feeder cattle futures and options. USDA will release Cattle on Feed data on Friday afternoon, with December grain options expiring.
Tech Talk; January Soybeans
January soybeans have had a nice $1.40 rally over the last month plus. For the record that exceeded the entire trading range of the previous marketing year. Taking the life of contract high to LOC low, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement resistance was at $11.55 1/4. We got within 3 cents on Friday’s high. That would also qualify as a key reversal if the follow-though shows up next week MACD says to hold up, as it is still bullish. The first area to watch is the Monday measuring gap at $11.18 ¼ If bulls defend that, it would be a bullish sign to try for $11.66 ½ (the gap count). Filling the Monday gap would likely indicate a test of the Billinger midline at $11.08 ¼, with round number $11 near the 38.2% Fib retracements support off the rally at $10.98 ¾.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.