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Jack Scoville

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Grains Report 11/17/2025

By On November 17, 2025 - 11:41 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 15

Source: CME Group
             Contract                        Quantity   Next Trade
Commodity    Month      Delivery Day   Assigned Today   Date Available
ROUGH RICE   November   Nov 18, 2025                7   Nov 13, 2025
SOYBEAN      November   Nov 18, 2025                6   Nov 14, 2025
DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
  Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2025 Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
                      Friday’s   Average                    USDA
                      USDA Est.  Forecast       Range        Sept.
Corn Production       16,752.0       16,528   16,380-16,748   16,814
Corn Yield               186.0        183.5    182.0-186.0     186.7
Harvested Acres           90.0         90.0     89.3-90.5       90.0
Soybean Production     4,253.0        4,265    4,152-4,420     4,301
Soybean Yield             53.0         53.0     51.7-53.8       53.5
Harvested Acres           80.3         80.3     80.0-80.3       80.3
****
U.S. 2025-26 Stockpiles (millions)
                      Friday’s    Average                    USDA
                      USDA Est.  Forecast       Range        Sept.
Corn                   2,154.0      2,130      1,944,2,470     2,110
Soybeans                 290.0        292        187-418         300
Wheat                    901.0        862        828-913         844
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2024-25
                       Friday’s   Average                    USDA
                      USDA Est.  Forecast       Range        Sept.
Corn                     291.7      285.6      284.0-289.3     284.2
Soybeans                 123.3     123.4      122.3-124.0     123.6
Wheat                    261.4     262.6      262.0-263.7     262.4
2025-26
                       Friday’s   Average                    USDA
                      USDA Est.  Forecast       Range        Sept.
Corn                     281.3     283.0      280.0-284.9     281.4
Soybeans                 122.0     124.6      123.0-126.0     124.0
Wheat                    271.4     266.1      264.0-270.0     264.1
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Nov 14
  U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
  cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
  Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound) bales.
  Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
  date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
              ======U.S.======      ================WORLD=======================
                Ending Stocks                  Exports              Production
           25/26  24/25   23/24: 25/26   24/25    23/24: 25/26    24/25   23/24
Soybeans   290.0  316.0   342.0:187.97  185.02   177.83:421.75   427.14   396.36
 Brazil       na     na      na:112.50  103.14   104.19:175.00   171.50   154.50
 Argentina    na     na      na:  8.25    7.87     5.11: 48.50    51.11    48.21
 China        na     na      na:  0.10    0.07     0.07: 21.00    20.65    20.84
Soyoil     1,726  1,751   1,551: 13.20   14.98    11.81: 70.57    69.80    64.00
Corn       2,154  1,532   1,763:203.47  188.50   192.65: 1,286    1,231    1,231
 China        na     na      na:  0.02    0.00     0.00:295.00   294.92   288.84
 Argentina    na     na      na: 37.00   32.00    36.26: 53.00    50.00    51.00
 S.Africa     na     na      na:  2.20    1.90     2.27: 16.50    16.95    13.43
Cotton(a)   4.30   4.00    3.15: 44.00   42.43    44.34:120.08   119.28   112.56
All Wheat    901    851     696:217.21  209.68   222.24:828.89   800.79   792.34
 China        na     na      na:  1.00    1.02     1.01:140.00   140.10   136.59
European
   Union      na     na      na: 33.00   27.87    38.01:142.30   122.15   135.38
 Canada       na     na      na: 27.00   29.28    25.44: 37.00    35.94    33.41
 Argentina    na     na      na: 14.00   12.50     8.23: 22.00    18.51    15.85
 Australia    na     na      na: 26.00   23.69    19.84: 36.00    34.11    25.96
 Russia       na     na      na: 44.00   43.00    55.50: 86.50    81.60    91.50
 Ukraine      na     na      na: 15.00   15.75    18.58: 23.00    23.40    23.00
Sorghum     43.0   40.0    33.0:    na      na       na:    na       na      na
Barley      66.0   70.0    78.0:    na      na       na:    na       na      na
Oats        34.0   29.0    36.0:    na      na       na:    na       na      na
Rice        51.9   53.9    39.8: 62.90   60.90    56.82:540.87   540.93   523.42
.
WHEAT
General Comments:   Wheat closed lower Friday in response to the USDA WASDE and production reports.  The market expected to see increased ending stocks estimates but the increase in ending stocks on the US and world data were much larger than anticipated.  US ending stocks were estimated at 901 million bushels and world stocks were estimated at 271.4 million tons.  There has been no new China demand news or rumors and the weekly export inspections were down.  The weekly USDA reports have started again but USDA is currently releasing old data and not current sales.  Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down.  Support is at 524, 517, and 505 December, with resistance at 555, 560, and 573 December.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed tso up.  Support is at 506, 501, and 494 December, with resistance at 540, 545, and 548 December. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
RICE:
General Comments   Rice was higher on Friday, but lower last week.  USDA noted reduced production for All Rice at 207.3 million cwt and for Long Grain at 152.7 million cwt.  Demand was unchanged and ending stocks were down to 51.9 million cwt for All Rice and 36.0 million cwt for Long Grain.   Iraq has bought 88,000 tons of milled Rice last week.  Ideas are that the market is too cheap and that farmers have sold what needs to be sold for now.  The recent selling has been to be relentless and appears tied to the weaker prices in Asia and especially India.  Trends are down in the market.  The harvest is wrapping up in the delta and Mid South.  California is also about done with its harvest.  Yields and quality are mixed, but quality appears better than a year ago.  The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1020, 1012, and 1000 January and resistance is at 1074, 1086, and 1101 January.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher last week on ideas and reports of strong export demand.  However, prices fell on Friday and gave back most of the gains of the week in response to the WASDE reports.  USDA showed higher than expected production at 16.752 billion bushels and higher than expected ending stocks at 2.154 billion bushels.  Export demand was increased by 100 million bushels but domestic demand was left unchanged   Trends are now mixed in the market.  The weekly export sales report from late September showed that Corn demand held strong.  USDA will issue additional reports this week.  The harvest is winding down in all areas of the Midwest.  There are ideas that US production might not be super strong due to disease such as rust to offset the demand losses.  Temperatures should average near to above normal this week and there are forecasts for some rain early this week.  Oats were higher last week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 425, 422, and 419 December, and resistance is at 442, 450, and 456 December.  Trends in Oats are mixed to up.  Support is at 302, 297, and 292 December, and resistance is at 316, 324, and 338 December.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher last week on hopes for new Chinese demand, but lower on Friday in response to the USDA reports.  USDA estimated production below trade expectations at 4.253 billion bushels and ending stocks just below trade expectations at 290 million bushels.  Domestic demand was unchanged but USDA cut export demand and apparently does not think China will be a big buyer of US Soybeans in the near term.  There was no talk of new Chinese demand although the market hopes for more.  China bought cargoes over a week ago but has not been reported to buy anything since.   China is almost done with purchases for this year and as the US will have to compete with South America for sales in a diminishing Chinese market.  The Chinese hog herd is being reduced and this means less demand for Soybeans and Soybean Meal.  The US government has announced that it will support farmers with money, but so far no money has been flowing.  Forecasts call for precipitation to be seen in the Midwest.  Temperatures will average near to above normal this week.  Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America due to the Trump tariff regime.
Overnight News:
Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are up.  Support is at 1119, 1103, and 1098 January, and resistance is at 1154, 1160, and  1172 January.  Trends in Soybean Meal are up.  Support is at 320.00, 316.00, and 311.00 December, and resistance is at 331.00, 337.00, and 343.00 December.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 4930, 4890, and 4770 December, with resistance at 5130, 5040, and 5180 December.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments:   Palm Oil futures were a little higher last week and the rally continued today.  Futures reacted to the stronger Ringgit and weaker Chicago prices late in the week and MPOB data from early in the week that showed less than expected ending stocks for the month.  There was some buying seen on Indonesian plans to increase the use of Pam Oil in biofuels blends.  There are ideas of increasing supplies, but those ideas are now turning as production enters a seasonal slowdown.  There are still ideas of increasing production.  The market sentiment overall is turning bearish on ideas of increasing stocks to the market and on some concerns about demand   Canola was a little higher.  Trends are mixed on the daily charts and are turning up on the weekly charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 636.00, 632.00, and 625.00 January, with resistance at 656.00, 661.00, and 671.00 January.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 4110, 4070, and 4030 February, with resistance at 4200, 4250, and 4300 February.
DJ Malaysia Nov. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports Down 10% on Month to 702,692 Tons, AmSpec Says
  By Amanda Lee
  Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Nov. 1-15 period are estimated down 10.03% on month at 702,692 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Monday.
  The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
  (All figures in metric tons)
                        Nov. 1-15       Oct. 1-15
   RBD Palm Olein         162,345         153,143
   RBD Palm Oil            72,778         106,538
   RBD Palm Stearin        50,754          68,736
   Crude Palm Oil         159,040          92,869
   Total*                 702,692         781,006
  *Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 17
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec          1030.00    +02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1042.50    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1045.00    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep  1035.00       —       Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec           1035.00    +02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1047.50    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1050.00    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1040.00       —       Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec           1022.50       —       Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec           1017.50       —      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec          4,130.00       —      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec            410.00       —      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.1495)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 28
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr          1135.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1092.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep  1012.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec  1002.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1007.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1140.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1097.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1017.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec   1007.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1012.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1112.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1070.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            4,830.00   +70.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            494.00     +07.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.4363)
  (END) Dow Jones Newswires
  03-28-25 0623ET
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