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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 11/14/2025

By On November 14, 2025 - 9:35 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
   The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. 2025 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
                          Average        Range       USDA Sept.   USDA 2024
Corn Production            16,528     16,380-16,748      16,814      14,867
Corn Yield                  183.5      182.0-186.0        186.7       179.3
Harvested Acres             90.0        89.3-90.5          90.0        82.9
Soybean Production          4,265      4,152-4,420        4,301       4,366
Soybean Yield               53.0        51.7-53.8          53.5        50.7
Harvested Acres             80.3        80.0-80.3          80.3        86.1
****
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2025-26
                           Average     Range     USDA Sept.
Corn                        2,130   1,944-2,470       2,110
Soybeans                     292      187-418           300
Wheat                        862      828-913           844
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2024-25
                           Average      Range       USDA Sept.
Corn                       285.6     284.0-289.3        284.2
Soybeans                   123.4     122.3-124.0        123.6
Wheat                      262.6     262.0-263.7        262.4
2025-26
                           Average      Range       USDA Sept.
Corn                       283.0     280.0-284.9        281.4
Soybeans                   124.6     123.0-126.0        124.0
Wheat                      266.1     264.0-270.0        264.1
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 14
Source: CME Group
             Contract                        Quantity   Next Trade
Commodity    Month      Delivery Day   Assigned Today   Date Available
ROUGH RICE   November   Nov 17, 2025               39   Nov 13, 2025
SOYBEAN      November   Nov 17, 2025               38   Nov 11, 2025
WHEAT
General Comments:   Wheat closed mixed yesterday before the release of the USDA WASDE and production reports that are coming later today.  The market expects to see increased ending stocks estimates.  There has been no new China demand news or rumors and the weekly export inspections were down.  The weekly USDA reports will  start again soon with the government open again.  Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down.  Support is at 524, 517, and 505 December, with resistance at 555, 560, and 573 December.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed tso up.  Support is at 506, 501, and 494 December, with resistance at 540, 545, and 548 December. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
RICE:
General Comments   Rice was lower yesterday despite news that Iraq has bought 88,000 tons of milled Rice.  Bearish USDA reports are expected later today.  Ideas are that the market is too cheap and that farmers have sold what needs to be sold for now.  The recent selling has been to be relentless and appears tied to the weaker prices in Asia and especially India.  Trends are down in the market.  The harvest is wrapping up in the delta and Mid South.  California is also about done with its harvest.  Yields and quality are mixed, but quality appears better than a year ago.  The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1020, 1012, and 1000 January and resistance is at 1074, 1086, and 1101 January.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher yesterday on ideas and reports of strong export demand.  Trends are now up in the market.  The weekly export sales report from late September showed that Corn demand held strong.  USDA will issue additional reports today and next week.  The November WASDE and production reports are to be issued later today and Corn production is expected to be strong, but below the September estimates.  Ending stock levels are expected to be about unchanged.  There is talk in the country that Corn production is being overestimated by analysts.  The harvest is winding down in all areas of the Midwest.  There are ideas that US production might not be super strong due to disease such as rust to offset the demand losses.  Temperatures should average above normal by this weekend and there are forecasts for mostly dry conditions.  Oats were higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are up.  Support is at 425, 422, and 419 December, and resistance is at 442, 450, and 456 December.  Trends in Oats are mixed to up.  Support is at 306, 302, and 297 December, and resistance is at 316, 324, and 338 December.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher again yesterday as the government is now open again.  Soybean Oil was lower.  There was no talk of new Chinese demand although the market hopes for more.  China bought cargoes over a week ago but has not been reported to buy anything since.   China is almost done with purchases for this year and as the US will have to compete with South America for sales in a diminishing Chinese market.  The Chinese hog herd is being reduced and this means less demand for Soybeans and Soybean Meal.  The US government has announced that it will support farmers with money, but so far no money has been flowing.  Forecasts call for mostly dry conditions to be seen in the Midwest.  Temperatures will average above normal by this weekend.  Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America due to the Trump tariff regime.  USDA will release its latest production and supply and demand estimates later today.  Ideas are the production could be about 200 million bushels less than in September and that ending stocks could be a little lower
Overnight News:
Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are up.  Support is at 1130, 1119, and 1103 January, and resistance is at 1154, 1160, and  1172 January.  Trends in Soybean Meal are up.  Support is at 320.00, 316.00, and 311.00 December, and resistance is at 331.00, 337.00, and 343.00 December.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 4930, 4890, and 4770 December, with resistance at 5110, 5040, and 5180 December.
DJ Conab Pegs 2025/26 Brazilian Harvest at 354.8 Million Metric Tons — Market Talk
     0956 ET – Brazilian agricultural agency Conab estimates the total 2025/26 Brazilian grain harvest at 354.8 million metric tons. Soybean production is estimated at 177.6 million tons, and corn production is seen at 138.8 million tons. The soybean figure is up from previous estimates, while the corn number is down from the agency’s estimate of 139.5 million tons in September. Conab also published its outlook for how planting for the next crop fared, with weather for soybean planting seen as too dry in states like Goias, Minas Gerais, and Mato Grosso. Low temperatures in October are also affecting freshly-planted corn. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments:   Palm Oil futures were near unchanged again today.  Futures reacted to the stronger Ringgit and weaker Chicago prices.  There was some buying seen on Indonesian plans to increase the use of Pam Oil in biofuels blends.  There are ideas of increasing supplies, but those ideas are now turning as production enters a seasonal slowdown.  There are still ideas of increasing production.  The market sentiment overall is turning bearish on ideas of increasing stocks to the market and on some concerns about demand   Canola was a little higher.  Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.
s.  Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 636.00, 632.00, and 625.00 January, with resistance at 656.00, 661.00, and 671.00 January.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 4110, 4070, and 4030 February, with resistance at 4200, 4250, and 4300 February.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 14
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Nov          1027.50    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Dec          1027.50    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1045.00    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1050.00    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Nov           1032.50    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Dec           1032.50    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1050.00    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1055.00    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Nov           1010.00    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Nov           1010.00    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Nov            4,080.00    00.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Nov            423.00     -06.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.1315)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 28
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr          1135.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1092.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep  1012.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec  1002.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1007.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1140.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1097.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1017.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec   1007.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1012.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1112.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1070.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            4,830.00   +70.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            494.00     +07.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.4363)
  (END) Dow Jones Newswires
  03-28-25 0623ET
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