Far Off Peak. The Energy Report 11/12/2025

California Governor Gavin Newson is bragging about his green energy ambitions even as the people of California suffer with the highest gasoline prices in the nation and an unreliable power grid that isn’t prepared to meet the economic demands of the future. That will lead to many companies leaving California in search of states and countries with better and smarter energy policies. Maybe the governor should stay home in California and start issuing building permits for the terrible fires that happen in California which he blames on climate change but fails to acknowledge his responsibility of forest management and the lack of water to fight the fires.

As far as the COP 30, President Trump’s calling the whole climate circus a “con job”. While the EU climate boss says it’s a “watershed moment”, most big emitters didn’t even show up. Maybe they didn’t show up because some of the people in the climate world told us the world would already have ended if we didn’t give them trillions of dollars more many years ago. Only 60% of major economies bothered to file their NDCs. Europe’s delegations? Slashed” .

And as always the hypocrisy and logistical messes were on full display. More than 100,000 Amazon trees were bulldozed just to build a highway so delegates could arrive in style, while private jets flooded the skies like locusts. On day one, the power went out, and delegates found themselves bunking in motels. The World Resources Institute warns that this failure to deliver is eroding trust, and Guterres summed it up as “half-measures”. In plain English they want more money and no money means no action. Of course, after trillions spent we also have no results.

Regardless the International Energy Agency with their predictions of peak oil demand helped feed into the COP energy madness and are also to blame for the wasted money and wasted opportunities to delay with carbon realistically.   When under the Biden administration the IEA predicted that global oil demand would peak this decade and made the dangerous assessment that no investment in oil and gas was needed if the world wanted to achieve its climate target. This came as a concerted effort by the Biden administration to defund oil and gas projects even point so far as their Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen scolding the committee to stop investing in fossil fuels.

Not only did this not pass the commonsense test, it showed a total disregard for average people as it was clear they were more interested in pushing their agenda than they were in saving planets or making food and lodging affordable. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected, under a current policies scenario, that global oil demand will reach 113 million barrels per day by 2050, representing an increase of approximately 13% compared to 2024 levels.

Oil prices rose after Reuters reported that, following US sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil, all but two Indian refiners have stopped ordering Russian crude for December, according to Bloomberg sources. Indian refiners, who have relied on Russian crude in recent years, withdrew from the December purchase window, which usually closes by November 10.

Yet at the end of the day the big story continues to be the surging diesel crack spread and the gasoline crack spread the perception that there’s plenty of oil may be true but the crack spreads are saying something very clearly that the supplies of products are very tight. The crude oil market closed in a technically strong position but still needs more confirmation for a major breakout bottom but based on where we’re at, we’ve got to be closer to that because the risk of being short oil is getting higher every day. Call me – Phil Flynn – to open your trading account 888-264-5665.

Natural gas prices are also impressive as the weather continues to be cold and even though there’s projections of a warm up, the longer term forecasts for December are starting to look very bullish. The natural gas market must prepare for record LNG exports at a time where they may actually get a real winter.

Nat gas continued higher yesterday as the winter blast is breaking records. Fox Weather reported that more than 190 million Americans woke up to an arctic blast Tuesday, with most people seeing temperatures 15–25 degrees below average from the Plains across the eastern half of the U.S., including the South, which set numerous record low temperatures. Of course what we’re seeing is Mother Nature challenging US record-breaking natural gas production.  The weather models seem to be suggesting that we will see a little bit of a warmup but December could turn out to be much colder than normal. Also supporting gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported that US lower-48 electricity output for the week ending November 1 rose 0.05% year-on-year to 73,730 GWh. Over the 52-week period.

On October 7, the EIA revised its 2025 forecast upward by 0.5% to 107.14 bcf/day, an increase from September’s estimate of 106.60 bcf/day. Currently, U.S. natural gas production is at an all-time high, with active rigs reaching a two-year peak. According to BNEF, dry gas production in the lower-48 states hit 110.7 bcf/day on Tuesday, marking an 11.7% year-on-year rise, while demand in the same area was 92.6 bcf/day, a substantial 20.1% increase from the previous year. Additionally, estimated LNG net flows to U.S. export terminals surged to 18.1 bcf/day, a 4.1% week-on-week increase.

Mother Nature is putting this record-breaking natural gas production to the test. Weather models suggest a brief warm-up, but December could still turn out to be much colder than usual.

Download the Fox Weather ap to keep up on the winter blast and Stay Tuned to the Fox Business Network! Call Phil Flynn to open your account by calling 888-264-5665 or email pflynn@pricegroup.com.