Get To Work. The Energy Report 11/11/2025

Oil prices and oil product prices are on the rise partly because there is a growing sense that the ridiculous government shutdown is going to end.  This is all happening while global oil demand hit a record 105.8 million barrels a day in October according to JP Morgan.

Yet the government shutdown seems to be the market mover overnight. If the government stayed shut down, demand for diesel could drop due to cancelled flights and fewer air traffic controllers, while gasoline demand might rise as more people drove instead of fly. Underneath it all, we still have the dynamic of very tight product supply that the market is having a very difficult time ignoring.

As reports surface of yet another attack on a Russian refinery, the market seems to be held back on the crude side as Russia dumps oil that they can’t refine. At the same time, it doesn’t help the product situation, where diesel inventories continue to be well below average going into winter—and as we know, winter in the United States arrived early.

Ukraine conducted overnight drone strikes hitting the Saratov Oil Refinery in Russia’s Saratov Oblast. The facility, operated by Rosneft and crucial to Russian military fuel supplies, suffered explosions and a large fire. Local authorities confirmed the attack, which also briefly closed Saratov Airport. Ukrainian sources reported it was the second successful strike on this refinery in recent weeks. In the same overnight operation, Ukraine struck the Feodosia Marine Oil Terminal (a fuel storage and loading facility) in occupied Crimea, along with several Russian logistics and troop concentration sites in the Donetsk region. These hits aim to disrupt fuel supplies for Russian forces.

Ukraine has intensified drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure since late October 2025, targeting refineries to degrade Russia’s war economy. Over the past three weeks (as of November 11), at least six refineries have been hit or damaged, impacting roughly 20% of Russia’s total refining capacity—far exceeding the effects of recent Western sanctions.

At the same time, Reuters is reporting that Russian forces have pushed deep into the Ukrainian city of Kupiansk and curled southwards to capture a series of train stations, according to a Russian commander on the ground who spoke on Tuesday. 

The commander, known as “Hunter” and leading Russia’s 1486th Motorized Rifle Regiment assault unit, reported that his troops seized an oil depot on Kupiansk’s eastern edge.

And while the market focuses on tightening sanctions on Russia it appears at least according to the Tanker Trackers some Iranian barrels are slipping through. Over the past 4 weeks, Iran has exported nearly 2.3 million barrels of crude oil per day. These are numbers we haven’t seen since the early half of 2018.

Our advantage in artificial intelligence comes not only from natural gas production but also our leadership in new-generation nuclear power. Additionally, more clean and renewable energy will be needed, with natural gas playing a key role. The Trump Administration plans to support nuclear producers by lending money, in contrast to the Biden administration’s grants for green energy.

Reuters reports that U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced the Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office (LPO) will primarily fund nuclear power plants. The LPO offers financing aid, including loan guarantees for challenging projects, and was previously used by President Trump to finance reactors at Georgia’s Vogtle plant. Wright expects most LPO funds to support new nuclear builds, even as some closed reactors consider reopening and plans for additional reactors are underway. He noted that rising electricity demand from AI and data centers will attract substantial equity from reliable investors, which could be matched with low-cost debt from the LPO at a ratio of three or four to one.

Natural gas is feeling the weather, rising on the cold but also as the US feeds the world with LNG exports. Natural Gas Intelligence reports that U.S. feed gas deliveries to LNG export terminals hit yet another record over the weekend, continuing a relentless charge higher that has added to global supplies and kept a lid on international natural gas prices. Your Welcome world.

Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) is calling for the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s upcoming storage report to show a 37 Bcf injection for the week ending November 7—just a hair below last year’s 45 Bcf but pretty much in line with the five-year average of 35 Bcf and last week’s 33 Bcf.

Now, with heating season getting underway, the big question is where we’ll end up by the time March 31 rolls around. NGI says that If we just stick to the five-year script, Lower 48 storage finishes winter 2025/26 at about 1,980 Bcf. That’s a decent cushion—higher than the median since 2010/11—but let’s not forget that surging LNG demand could easily soak up that 202 Bcf difference. We’ve seen storage swing from as high as 2,473 Bcf in 2011/12 to as low as 825 Bcf in 2013/14, back when shale gas was still flexing its muscles.

Production keeps humming along. Last week, Lower 48 dry gas output jumped 1.9 Bcf/d to average 110.6 Bcf/d, even though the completion count dropped to 173 spreads. LNG feed gas demand helped eat up some of that gain, climbing 0.5 Bcf/d to hit 17 Bcf/d. Power sector demand, though, took a hit—down nearly 12%.

From a trading perspective, things just got interesting. Call Phil Flynn 888-264-5665 if you want to open your account and get involved. December’s Nymex contract finally broke above its stubborn downtrend line—a move we haven’t seen since mid-March. All eyes are now on Thursday’s storage report to see if the spot month can stay above the critical $4.12/MMBtu level and keep the rally alive. As of Friday’s close, NGI’s Forward Look had December 2025 Henry Hub futures settling at $4.327.

Bottom line: Storage is steady, production’s strong, LNG is hungry, and the charts are heating up along with the weather. Stay tuned—winter’s just getting started, and the gas market is ready to rumble.

Thank you to all our veterans who sacrificed so much for the love of country. We offer our prayers and thanks!

Download The Fox Weather Ap Stay Tuned to the Fox Business Network Invested in you!  If you are not getting the Phil Flynn Daily Trade Levels call me at 888-264-5665 or email pflynn@pricegroup.com.