Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Challenger Job Cuts at 6:30 A.M., Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-week Average, Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Prel, Unit Labor Costs QoQ Prel, and Wholesale Trade MoM at 7:30 A.M., WIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., Fed Barr & Fed Williams Speech at 10:00 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Mammack Speech, 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., Fed Waller Speech at 2:30 P.M., Fed Paulson Speech and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.
The November Jobs Report is scheduled to be released on Friday. The report has been delayed due to lack of funding. Ahead of the planned release, ADP released its private payrolls data, which showed that private businesses added 42,000 jobs in October. This was the largest add in 3 months and more than offset the declines in August nd September. The service sector added 33,000 jobs, led by trade/transportation/utilities, education/health services, and financial activities. Cuts were noted in the professional business service, information, and leisure/hospitality. The goods producing sector added 9,000 jobs, led by gains in national resources/mining and construction. Manufacturing jobs declined by 3,000. The October jobs gain should be enough to produce a further rate cut by the US Central Bank. Note the US dollar has risen to its highest level since May. The dollar index is poised to test 102, its top level, following Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs.
US 2025 Corn/Soy to Wrap Up November 15th ; Winter Wheat Crop Health Better than Average:
Mild/dry weather dominates the Central US for another 10 days, which allows corn harvesting this weekend to reach 94-96% complete and national soy harvest 96-99% complete. ARC estimates the 2026 winter wheat crop is 88-92% planted, and updated vegetation health maps suggest both SRW and HRW crop health is above normal. Recent heavy rainfall across the Delta, TN, KY and parts of the southern Midwest have been timely. Vegetation health compared to normal as of Oct 31st . The absence of drought across the Southern Plains and mid-South is clear. NOAA’s monthly drought outlook features njo meaningful change during November, US winter wheat is set to enter dormancy in better condition than last year. ARC also notes showers have begun to ease dryness across the Pacific Northwest.
WASDE Back for November
After missing the October Crop Production and WASDE reports due to a funding shortfall, the USDA announced this week that money has been appropriated for the November reports and will be released on Friday November 14th ., ARC offered their best estimates of US soybean yields based on late-season crop production ratings, which were affirmed by strong harvest results. A table of the latest crop condition and a regression model in the chart based on crop condition ratings, with a point forecast of 53.4, while Ag Resources (ARC)yield estimate of 53.1 BPA. Both are fractionally below the September WASDE estimate of 53.5 BPA, but reflect a record-large US soybean yield nonetheless. The November Crop Report will include the objective plot yield data that was missed in October. NASS will use all data sources (as normal) for the November report. This includes objective yield data from plots, farmer surveys, and other survey methods normally utilized as of November 1st .
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Tests Late Oct High ; Argentine/US Origin Offered at Parity:
CBOT corn ended higher amid another intense rally in soybeans & meal and as weekly US ethanol grind stayed robust. US ethanol production in the week ending Oct 31st totaled 330 Mil Gal, vs. 321 Mil the previous week and a new all-time high. ARC has revised upwards corn used for ethanol production to 471 Mil Bu, up 5 Mil Bu year-over-year. The strong October grind and record export disappearance provided an outlet for record US ethanol production. The fundamental risk leans bearish above $4.50 March CBOT. The surge in ethanol production has allowed a significant increase in inventory, which on October 31st totaled 952 Million Gallons, the highest in late October/early November since 2018. Midwest cash ethanol prices have shed premium with spot ethanol at $1.75/Gal vs. $1.83 a week ago. Also of note, US & Argentine FOB origins are offered at parity for nearby delivery. Meaningful US corn demand must be found to pull US end stocks below 2 Bil Bu. Medium-term risk is centered on NASS estimating US corn yield above 182 BPA next week. Be prepared to add to hedges. There’s just no lasting bullish headline in corn without South American weather adversity. Seasonal tops in the corn market often occur before November 10th . ARC views any 3-10 cent rally as a selling opportunity. Be prepared.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
USDA to Resume Crop Reports: WASDE Returns Nov 14th. The Corn & Ethanol Report 11/06/2025
We kickoff the day with Challenger Job Cuts at 6:30 A.M., Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-week Average, Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Prel, Unit Labor Costs QoQ Prel, and Wholesale Trade MoM at 7:30 A.M., WIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., Fed Barr & Fed Williams Speech at 10:00 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Mammack Speech, 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., Fed Waller Speech at 2:30 P.M., Fed Paulson Speech and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.
The November Jobs Report is scheduled to be released on Friday. The report has been delayed due to lack of funding. Ahead of the planned release, ADP released its private payrolls data, which showed that private businesses added 42,000 jobs in October. This was the largest add in 3 months and more than offset the declines in August nd September. The service sector added 33,000 jobs, led by trade/transportation/utilities, education/health services, and financial activities. Cuts were noted in the professional business service, information, and leisure/hospitality. The goods producing sector added 9,000 jobs, led by gains in national resources/mining and construction. Manufacturing jobs declined by 3,000. The October jobs gain should be enough to produce a further rate cut by the US Central Bank. Note the US dollar has risen to its highest level since May. The dollar index is poised to test 102, its top level, following Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs.
US 2025 Corn/Soy to Wrap Up November 15th ; Winter Wheat Crop Health Better than Average:
Mild/dry weather dominates the Central US for another 10 days, which allows corn harvesting this weekend to reach 94-96% complete and national soy harvest 96-99% complete. ARC estimates the 2026 winter wheat crop is 88-92% planted, and updated vegetation health maps suggest both SRW and HRW crop health is above normal. Recent heavy rainfall across the Delta, TN, KY and parts of the southern Midwest have been timely. Vegetation health compared to normal as of Oct 31st . The absence of drought across the Southern Plains and mid-South is clear. NOAA’s monthly drought outlook features njo meaningful change during November, US winter wheat is set to enter dormancy in better condition than last year. ARC also notes showers have begun to ease dryness across the Pacific Northwest.
WASDE Back for November
After missing the October Crop Production and WASDE reports due to a funding shortfall, the USDA announced this week that money has been appropriated for the November reports and will be released on Friday November 14th ., ARC offered their best estimates of US soybean yields based on late-season crop production ratings, which were affirmed by strong harvest results. A table of the latest crop condition and a regression model in the chart based on crop condition ratings, with a point forecast of 53.4, while Ag Resources (ARC)yield estimate of 53.1 BPA. Both are fractionally below the September WASDE estimate of 53.5 BPA, but reflect a record-large US soybean yield nonetheless. The November Crop Report will include the objective plot yield data that was missed in October. NASS will use all data sources (as normal) for the November report. This includes objective yield data from plots, farmer surveys, and other survey methods normally utilized as of November 1st .
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Tests Late Oct High ; Argentine/US Origin Offered at Parity:
CBOT corn ended higher amid another intense rally in soybeans & meal and as weekly US ethanol grind stayed robust. US ethanol production in the week ending Oct 31st totaled 330 Mil Gal, vs. 321 Mil the previous week and a new all-time high. ARC has revised upwards corn used for ethanol production to 471 Mil Bu, up 5 Mil Bu year-over-year. The strong October grind and record export disappearance provided an outlet for record US ethanol production. The fundamental risk leans bearish above $4.50 March CBOT. The surge in ethanol production has allowed a significant increase in inventory, which on October 31st totaled 952 Million Gallons, the highest in late October/early November since 2018. Midwest cash ethanol prices have shed premium with spot ethanol at $1.75/Gal vs. $1.83 a week ago. Also of note, US & Argentine FOB origins are offered at parity for nearby delivery. Meaningful US corn demand must be found to pull US end stocks below 2 Bil Bu. Medium-term risk is centered on NASS estimating US corn yield above 182 BPA next week. Be prepared to add to hedges. There’s just no lasting bullish headline in corn without South American weather adversity. Seasonal tops in the corn market often occur before November 10th . ARC views any 3-10 cent rally as a selling opportunity. Be prepared.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374