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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Softs Report 10/27/2025

By On October 27, 2025 - 9:38 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
DJ U.S., China Sound Confident Note After Trade Talks — 2nd Update
  By Hannah Miao and Chun Han Wong
  KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia — Top U.S. and Chinese negotiators sounded a positive note on weekend trade talks, hailing what they called constructive discussions ahead of a meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping planned for this week.
     “I think we have a very successful framework for the leaders to discuss on Thursday,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said after two days of trade negotiations in the Malaysian capital.
     Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang separately told reporters that “the two sides have reached preliminary consensus” on possible solutions for issues that have rocked relations between the world’s two largest economies.
     The talks covered a range of issues, including export controls, extensions to the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and cooperation to tackle the illicit trade in fentanyl, according to Bessent and Li. They also discussed purchases of agricultural products, access to rare earths crucial to making everything from cars to jet fighters, TikTok and the overall U.S.-China relationship, Bessent said.
     “The U.S. has been tough in conveying its position, whereas China has been firm in defending its own interests and rights,” said Li, a top aide to China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng, who headed the Chinese delegation.
     The trade talks in Malaysia aimed to ratchet down tensions between the countries, and lay the groundwork for further discussions at the expected Trump-Xi summit, which will be the first in-person meeting of the two leaders since Trump began his second term.
     When asked whether the U.S. and China would extend a trade truce set to expire Nov. 10, during which both countries agreed to lower tariffs, Bessent said, “Coming out of this meeting, I would say yes, but that is at the end of the day President Trump’s decision.”
     Bessent later told NBC News that the U.S. likely wouldn’t proceed with an additional 100% tariff on all Chinese goods, which Trump had threatened would take effect Nov. 1. He also said Trump would likely visit Xi in China in early 2026, while Xi might visit the U.S. later next year.
     Li, the senior Chinese negotiator, said both sides will now go through internal approval processes for implementing their preliminary consensus. He didn’t offer specifics from the talks.
     Trump arrived in Kuala Lumpur on Sunday for a regional gathering of Southeast Asian leaders, his first stop on a trip that will include Japan and South Korea, where he is expected to meet Xi.
     Trump, speaking aboard Air Force One en route to Malaysia, said he hoped to leave the Xi meeting with “a complete deal,” saying, “We have a really good chance of making a really comprehensive deal.”
     The president has said he would press China to resume purchases of U.S. soybeans, crack down on Chinese companies exporting chemicals used to make fentanyl and ease controls on rare earths. China this year has pulled back on its purchases of U.S. soybeans, badly squeezing American farmers, a core constituency of the president.
     The meetings in Malaysia were the fifth high-level talks between the two superpowers this year in a volatile trade war that has, at times, sent financial markets and businesses reeling. After ratcheting up tariffs on each other’s goods past 100% earlier this year, the two sides in May reached a tentative truce to roll back duties.
     Friction between the U.S. and China reignited in recent weeks, with each country accusing the other of escalating tensions. At the end of September, Washington expanded a trade blacklist targeting Chinese tech companies. Beijing earlier this month tightened controls on rare earths.
     The new rare-earth measures from China shocked and angered Washington. Beijing’s introduction of rare-earth export controls earlier this year led to significant production disruptions for U.S. carmakers and other companies. The Trump administration expects China to increase exports of rare-earth magnets as a condition for the U.S. lowering tariffs.
     Before the Malaysia trade talks, which were held on the 92nd floor of Kuala Lumpur’s Merdeka 118 skyscraper, both sides made moves to build up leverage.
     The U.S. opened a new investigation that could set the stage for potential tariff increases, looking into how the Chinese government has upheld its end of the so-called Phase One trade deal that it signed during Trump’s first term, in which China pledged to greatly increase its purchases of American goods. China said it has fulfilled its obligations under the agreement.
     In response to U.S. fees on Chinese ships calling at American ports, Beijing said it would impose a special fee on U.S. vessels docking in China and sanctioned U.S. subsidiaries of a South Korean shipbuilder.
     Last month, both sides reached a framework deal on TikTok, paving the way for a deal that would allow the Chinese-owned video-sharing app to operate in America.
     Write to Hannah Miao at hannah.miao@wsj.com and Chun Han Wong at chunhan.wong@wsj.com
DJ Trump Reaches Trade Pacts With Southeast Asian Nations — WSJ
  By Gavin Bade
  The Trump administration said it reached trade agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia, and frameworks for deals with Thailand and Vietnam during President Trump’s trip across Asia. The announcements, while not legally binding, represent significant progress in Trump’s quest to lower trade barriers for U.S. goods abroad.
     Here’s what to know:
     Malaysia and Cambodia
     The U.S. entered into trade agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia that will see the Southeast Asian nations lower tariffs and regulations on U.S. goods such as vehicles and farm products. The administration said the two nations would buy more U.S. goods in exchange for certain exemptions from Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs, which will otherwise remain at 19%.
     The U.S. won’t charge tariffs on many agricultural products and other goods not produced in the U.S. Many of those goods are laid out in an annex to Trump’s executive order on reciprocal trade that the administration had recently offered as carve-outs for nations that sign trade deals with the U.S.
     The Southeast Asian nations agreed to cut tariffs on a variety of U.S. exports including agricultural products, metals and manufactured goods. They also agreed to accept many U.S. regulations and certifications on vehicles and farm products, the U.S. said.
     The countries will also purchase new Boeing aircraft, and Malaysia will invest $70 billion in the U.S. over the next 10 years.
     The Southeast Asian nations also agreed to facilitate U.S. access to critical minerals and not impose regulations or fines that target U.S. tech firms. They also agreed to prevent companies from other nations — such as China — from exporting to the U.S. at below-market prices. And they will also strengthen environmental and labor regulations, according to the deals.
     The two deals represent some of the most detailed of Trump’s second term, but the administration hasn’t indicated it intends to send them to Congress for approval, as is typical for such agreements.
     Thailand and Vietnam
     The U.S. said it signed framework agreements with Thailand and Vietnam that could provide the foundation for fuller trade deals later on.
     Both nations agreed to cut tariffs on nearly all U.S. goods, reduce regulations on American firms and accept many U.S. regulations on vehicles and other goods. They also agreed to purchase Boeing aircraft and U.S. agricultural goods, the U.S. said. And the Thai government signed a separate commitment to facilitate the development of critical mineral exports to the U.S.
     In return, the U.S. agreed to identify goods it would exempt from its tariffs on the countries, which will otherwise remain at 20% for Vietnam and 19% for Cambodia.
     Write to Gavin Bade at gavin.bade@wsj.com
COTTON
General Comments:   Cotton was near unchanged Friday and for the week as it waits for news from Asia.  The market hopes for positive news from the Trump-Xi meetings near the end of the month but so far no meeting time or date has been announced officially.  President Trump just raised tariffs on China to 100% but is looking to extend the current deal if a better deal can’t be reached.  There are no more USDA reports coming due to the closure.  The US harvest is active in most areas and initial yield reports are positive.  However, Cotton is not being sold by many producers as they wait for higher prices.  There are still ideas that growing and harvesting conditions are generally good.  There are still reports of good weather in Texas and into the southeast with variable temperatures and a few showers and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around.  Bolls are opening.  The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 63.70, 62.170, and 62.10 December, with resistance of 65.30, 66.10 and 67.00 December.
FCOJ
General Comments:  Futures were higher last week on short covering after making new lows for the move.  The trends are mixed.  The US government remains shut down.  The weather is considered good for production here and in Brazil and Mexico.  Development conditions are good in Florida and in Brazil now with occasional showers in Florida and dry weather in Brazil.  The poor production potential for the crops comes from early dry weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida to lose trees.  Brazil production potential got hurt by cold and dry weather seen earlier in the year and dry weather now.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are down.  Support is at 170.00, 164.00, and 158.00 November, with resistance at 224.00, 237.00, and 247.00 November.
COFFEE
General Comments:  New York and London were higher last week and New York traded to new weekly highs before correcting on forecasts now call for some showers this week.  Fears of dry weather through at least the end of the month in Brazil that could impact cherry set and development remain.  There are still reduced deliverable supplies for both exchanges, and the lack of deliverable stocks in both markets has supported the futures market.  Vietnam has seen mostly good growing conditions but too much rain from some tropical systems has been reported in some areas.  Activity remained quiet in Vietnam on limited supplies as offers of fresh beans from the current harvest have yet to pick up.  U.S. and Brazilian officials held trade talks on Thursday that the two sides called positive and agreed to work to schedule a meeting between President Donald Trump and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva soon.  A revision of the 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian imports, including coffee, could push arabica prices lower.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 335.98 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 386.00, 371.00, and 360.00 December, and resistance is at 438.00, 442.00 and 448.00 December.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 4450, 4380, and 4240 November, with resistance at 4870, 4980, and 5040 November.
SUGAR
General Comments:  New York and London were lower last week.  Trends are still mostly down in both markets.  Ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue.  Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong.  The outlook for cane crops in India and Thailand are in good condition with reports of good rains this year, while Brazilian cane continue to favor producing sugar over ethanol.  The prospect of a global surplus in the 2025/26 season was keeping the market on the defensive with a rise in production in India and Thailand set to increased supplies while global consumption is expected to remain steady.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down.  Support is at 1490, 1460, and 1430 March and resistance is at 1610, 1650, and 1680 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down.  Support is at 427.00, 421.00, and 415.00 December, with resistance at 449.00, 454.00, and 458.00 December.
COCOA
General Comments:  New York and London closed mostly higher yesterday and trends turned up.  London December was mostly lower.  Demand concerns in West Africa continue.  Bigger supplies are expected at West Africa ports soon as Ivory Coast has raised the farmgate price paid to farmers and they are expected to sell.  Ghana has also raised farmgate prices.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market feels that there is less demand and the lack of demand is expected to continue.  Cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast were down 52% between October 1 and October 12 against last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up.  Support is at 5900, 5690, and 5600 December, with resistance at 6480, 6680, and 6870 December.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 4200, 4010, and 3920 December, with resistance at 4700, 4870, and 4970 December.
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