About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Visit Website →

Grains Report 10/27/2025

By On October 27, 2025 - 11:12 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
DJ U.S., China Sound Confident Note After Trade Talks — 2nd Update
  By Hannah Miao and Chun Han Wong
  KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia — Top U.S. and Chinese negotiators sounded a positive note on weekend trade talks, hailing what they called constructive discussions ahead of a meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping planned for this week.
     “I think we have a very successful framework for the leaders to discuss on Thursday,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said after two days of trade negotiations in the Malaysian capital.
     Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang separately told reporters that “the two sides have reached preliminary consensus” on possible solutions for issues that have rocked relations between the world’s two largest economies.
     The talks covered a range of issues, including export controls, extensions to the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and cooperation to tackle the illicit trade in fentanyl, according to Bessent and Li. They also discussed purchases of agricultural products, access to rare earths crucial to making everything from cars to jet fighters, TikTok and the overall U.S.-China relationship, Bessent said.
     “The U.S. has been tough in conveying its position, whereas China has been firm in defending its own interests and rights,” said Li, a top aide to China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng, who headed the Chinese delegation.
     The trade talks in Malaysia aimed to ratchet down tensions between the countries, and lay the groundwork for further discussions at the expected Trump-Xi summit, which will be the first in-person meeting of the two leaders since Trump began his second term.
     When asked whether the U.S. and China would extend a trade truce set to expire Nov. 10, during which both countries agreed to lower tariffs, Bessent said, “Coming out of this meeting, I would say yes, but that is at the end of the day President Trump’s decision.”
     Bessent later told NBC News that the U.S. likely wouldn’t proceed with an additional 100% tariff on all Chinese goods, which Trump had threatened would take effect Nov. 1. He also said Trump would likely visit Xi in China in early 2026, while Xi might visit the U.S. later next year.
     Li, the senior Chinese negotiator, said both sides will now go through internal approval processes for implementing their preliminary consensus. He didn’t offer specifics from the talks.
     Trump arrived in Kuala Lumpur on Sunday for a regional gathering of Southeast Asian leaders, his first stop on a trip that will include Japan and South Korea, where he is expected to meet Xi.
     Trump, speaking aboard Air Force One en route to Malaysia, said he hoped to leave the Xi meeting with “a complete deal,” saying, “We have a really good chance of making a really comprehensive deal.”
     The president has said he would press China to resume purchases of U.S. soybeans, crack down on Chinese companies exporting chemicals used to make fentanyl and ease controls on rare earths. China this year has pulled back on its purchases of U.S. soybeans, badly squeezing American farmers, a core constituency of the president.
     The meetings in Malaysia were the fifth high-level talks between the two superpowers this year in a volatile trade war that has, at times, sent financial markets and businesses reeling. After ratcheting up tariffs on each other’s goods past 100% earlier this year, the two sides in May reached a tentative truce to roll back duties.
     Friction between the U.S. and China reignited in recent weeks, with each country accusing the other of escalating tensions. At the end of September, Washington expanded a trade blacklist targeting Chinese tech companies. Beijing earlier this month tightened controls on rare earths.
     The new rare-earth measures from China shocked and angered Washington. Beijing’s introduction of rare-earth export controls earlier this year led to significant production disruptions for U.S. carmakers and other companies. The Trump administration expects China to increase exports of rare-earth magnets as a condition for the U.S. lowering tariffs.
     Before the Malaysia trade talks, which were held on the 92nd floor of Kuala Lumpur’s Merdeka 118 skyscraper, both sides made moves to build up leverage.
     The U.S. opened a new investigation that could set the stage for potential tariff increases, looking into how the Chinese government has upheld its end of the so-called Phase One trade deal that it signed during Trump’s first term, in which China pledged to greatly increase its purchases of American goods. China said it has fulfilled its obligations under the agreement.
     In response to U.S. fees on Chinese ships calling at American ports, Beijing said it would impose a special fee on U.S. vessels docking in China and sanctioned U.S. subsidiaries of a South Korean shipbuilder.
     Last month, both sides reached a framework deal on TikTok, paving the way for a deal that would allow the Chinese-owned video-sharing app to operate in America.
     Write to Hannah Miao at hannah.miao@wsj.com and Chun Han Wong at chunhan.wong@wsj.com
DJ Trump Reaches Trade Pacts With Southeast Asian Nations — WSJ
  By Gavin Bade
  The Trump administration said it reached trade agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia, and frameworks for deals with Thailand and Vietnam during President Trump’s trip across Asia. The announcements, while not legally binding, represent significant progress in Trump’s quest to lower trade barriers for U.S. goods abroad.
     Here’s what to know:
     Malaysia and Cambodia
     The U.S. entered into trade agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia that will see the Southeast Asian nations lower tariffs and regulations on U.S. goods such as vehicles and farm products. The administration said the two nations would buy more U.S. goods in exchange for certain exemptions from Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs, which will otherwise remain at 19%.
     The U.S. won’t charge tariffs on many agricultural products and other goods not produced in the U.S. Many of those goods are laid out in an annex to Trump’s executive order on reciprocal trade that the administration had recently offered as carve-outs for nations that sign trade deals with the U.S.
     The Southeast Asian nations agreed to cut tariffs on a variety of U.S. exports including agricultural products, metals and manufactured goods. They also agreed to accept many U.S. regulations and certifications on vehicles and farm products, the U.S. said.
     The countries will also purchase new Boeing aircraft, and Malaysia will invest $70 billion in the U.S. over the next 10 years.
     The Southeast Asian nations also agreed to facilitate U.S. access to critical minerals and not impose regulations or fines that target U.S. tech firms. They also agreed to prevent companies from other nations — such as China — from exporting to the U.S. at below-market prices. And they will also strengthen environmental and labor regulations, according to the deals.
     The two deals represent some of the most detailed of Trump’s second term, but the administration hasn’t indicated it intends to send them to Congress for approval, as is typical for such agreements.
     Thailand and Vietnam
     The U.S. said it signed framework agreements with Thailand and Vietnam that could provide the foundation for fuller trade deals later on.
     Both nations agreed to cut tariffs on nearly all U.S. goods, reduce regulations on American firms and accept many U.S. regulations on vehicles and other goods. They also agreed to purchase Boeing aircraft and U.S. agricultural goods, the U.S. said. And the Thai government signed a separate commitment to facilitate the development of critical mineral exports to the U.S.
     In return, the U.S. agreed to identify goods it would exempt from its tariffs on the countries, which will otherwise remain at 20% for Vietnam and 19% for Cambodia.
     Write to Gavin Bade at gavin.bade@wsj.com
WHEAT
General Comments:   Wheat closed higher last week in reaction to news that the government has sanctioned Cude Oil and products exports from Russia.  The news lifted all commodities markets and Wheat could be affected if exports from Russia are affected by the sanctions.  No USDA reports were released due to the government shutdown.  Russian crop areas remain too dry in Winter Wheat areas and too wet in Spring Wheat areas, but crop size ideas have increased due primarily to reports of big yields in Spring Wheat growing areas.  A French government report showed plenty of production but lower quality.  Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains and Canada.  It has been warm in the Great Plains so far this Fall.  Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 505, 498 and 492 December, with resistance at 518, 527, and 537 December.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 494, 483, and 477 December, with resistance at 507, 515, and 526 December. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
RICE:
General Comments   Rice was lower once again last week.  The selling has been to be relentless and appears tied to the weaker prices in Asia and especially India.  Trends are down in the market.  The harvest is wrapping up in Texas and southern Louisiana.  Harvest is now wrapping up in Mississippi and Arkansas.  California is also about done with its harvest.  Yields and quality are mixed, but quality appears better than a year ago.  The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1000, 988, and 974 November and resistance is at 1057, 1098, and 1126 November.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher last week on news that the US government will start to support farmers even with the government closed.  The Wall St Journal said that the total support could total 3.0 billion dollars.  Also, the president has sanctioned Russian Crude Oil exports in a move that rallied Crude Oil and supported ethanol and Corn prices.  Trends are sideways in the market.  Most USDA reports are cancelled as the government is still closed.  The harvest is active in all areas of the Midwest.  There are ideas that US production might not be super strong due to disease such as rust to offset the demand losses.  Yield reports are showing at or above APH yields in western areas, with very good crops reported in Minnesota.  Yields have been reported at or less than APH in areas east of the Mississippi River.  Temperatures should average near to above normal this week and there are forecasts for mostly dry conditions.  Most of the western Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high.  Areas east of the Mississippi River have been very dry for the last month or more.  Demand for Corn in world markets remains moderate to strong.  Oats were a little higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 408, 405, and 402 December, and resistance is at 428, 431, and 442 December.  Trends in Oats are mixed to up.  Support is at 295, 288, and 285 December, and resistance is at 311, 316, and 324 December.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher last week and Soybean Oil was lower as the trade war between the US and China continued but as President Trump said that a primary focus of his proposed meeting with Xi of China remains Chinese Soybeans demand.  The US government has announced that it will support farmers with about 3.0 billion dollars even with the government closed.  Traders are looking forward to positive results from the meeting between Trump and Xi near the end of the month.  China has shown no interest in buying US ag products and Trump has also threatened to regulate cooking oil imports from China in a new escalation in the war as China is restricting Rare Earth metals to the US.  Forecasts call for showers and rains to be seen in the Midwest this week.  Temperatures will average near normal.  Prices are still higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons.  Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America due to the Trump tariff regime.
Overnight News:
Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up.  Support is at 1020, 1010, and 1001 November, and resistance is at 1053, 1063, and  1074 November.  Trends in Soybean Meal are up.  Support is at 279.00, 275.00, and 273.00 December, and resistance is at 295.00, 300.00, and 301.00 December.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 4920, 4890, and 4770 December, with resistance at 5180, 5220, and 5390 December.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments:   Palm Oil futures were a little lower last week in sympathy with the price action in Crude Oil and Soybean Oil.  Futures were lower today.  The market sentiment overall is turning bearish on ideas of increasing stocks to the market and on some concerns about Indian demand   Canola was a little higher as Canada and China agreed to negotiate trade issues that have included a ban on imports of Canadian Canola by China.  Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.
s.  Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 596.00, 590.00, and 584.00 November, with resistance at 625.00, 630.00, and 640.00 November.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 4360, 4290, and 4240 January, with resistance at 4490, 4570, and 4630 January.
DJ Malaysia Oct. 1-25 Palm Oil Exports Down 0.27% on Month, AmSpec Says
  By Amanda Lee
  Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Oct. 1-25 period are estimated down 0.27% on month at 1,182,216 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Monday.
  The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
  (All figures in metric tons)
                        Oct.1-25        Sept. 1-25
   RBD Palm Olein        195,063           220,906
   RBD Palm Oil          163,058           156,193
   RBD Palm Stearin       89,906           114,556
   Crude Palm Oil        241,879           245,382
   Total*              1,182,216         1,185,422
  *Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 27
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Nov          1062.50    -12.50      Unquoted   –        –
Dec          1070.00    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1080.00    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1077.50    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Nov           1067.50    -12.50      Unquoted   –        –
Dec           1075.00    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1085.00    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1082.50    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Nov           1052.50    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Nov           1027.50    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Nov            4,370.00   -30.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Nov            467.00     +02.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.208)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 28
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr          1135.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1092.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep  1012.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec  1002.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1007.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1140.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1097.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1017.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec   1007.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1012.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1112.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1070.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            4,830.00   +70.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            494.00     +07.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.4363)
  (END) Dow Jones Newswires
  03-28-25 0623ET
Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
Tagged with: • • • • • • •