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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Softs Report 10/24/2025

By On October 24, 2025 - 8:50 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
COTTON
General Comments:   Cotton was higher yesterday after President Trump increased sanctions on Russia to include big restrictions on its Crude Oil exports and products exports.  Crude Oil moved sharply higher and helped support Cotton values.  The market hopes for positive news from the Trump-Xi meetings near the end of the month but so far no meeting time or date has been announced officially.  President Trump just raised tariffs on China to 100% but is looking to extend the current deal if a better deal can’t be reached.  There are no more USDA reports coming due to the closure.  The US harvest is active in most areas and initial yield reports are positive.  However, Cotton is not being sold by many producers as they wait for higher prices.  There are still ideas that growing and harvesting conditions are generally good.  There are still reports of good weather in Texas and into the southeast with variable temperatures and a few showers and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around.  Bolls are opening.  The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 63.70, 62.170, and 62.10 December, with resistance of 65.30, 66.10 and 67.00 December.
FCOJ
General Comments:  Futures were sharply higher yesterday and made new lows for the move.  The trends remain down.  The US government remains shut down.  The weather is considered good for production here and in Brazil and Mexico.  Development conditions are good in Florida and in Brazil now with occasional showers in Florida and dry weather in Brazil.  The poor production potential for the crops comes from early dry weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida to lose trees.  Brazil production potential got hurt by cold and dry weather seen earlier in the year and dry weather now.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are down.  Support is at 170.00, 164.00, and 158.00 November, with resistance at 202.00, 215.00, and 224.00 November.
COFFEE
General Comments:  New York and London was lower yesterday on forecasts now call for some showers next week and as futures failed against recent highs.  Fears of dry weather through at least the end of the month in Brazil that could impact cherry set and development remain.  There are still reduced deliverable supplies for both exchanges, and the lack of deliverable stocks in both markets has supported the futures market.  Vietnam has seen mostly good growing conditions but too much rain from some tropical systems has been reported in some areas.  Activity remained quiet in Vietnam on limited supplies as offers of fresh beans from the current harvest have yet to pick up.  U.S. and Brazilian officials held trade talks on Thursday that the two sides called positive and agreed to work to schedule a meeting between President Donald Trump and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva soon.  A revision of the 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian imports, including coffee, could push arabica prices lower.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 335.98 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up.  Support is at 402.00, 386.00, and 371.00 December, and resistance is at 438.00, 442.00 and 448.00 December.  Trends in London are mixed to up.  Support is at 4450, 4380, and 4240 November, with resistance at 4870, 4980, and 5040 November.
SUGAR
General Comments:  New York and London were higher in recovery trading yesterday.  Trends are still mostly down in both markets.  Ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue.  Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong.  The outlook for cane crops in India and Thailand are in good condition with reports of good rains this year, while Brazilian cane continue to favor producing sugar over ethanol.  The prospect of a global surplus in the 2025/26 season was keeping the market on the defensive with a rise in production in India and Thailand set to increased supplies while global consumption is expected to remain steady.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down.  Support is at 1490, 1460, and 1430 March and resistance is at 1610, 1650, and 1680 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down.  Support is at 432.00, 427.00, and 421.00 December, with resistance at 449.00, 454.00, and 458.00 December.
COCOA
General Comments:  New York and London closed mostly higher yesterday and trends turned up.  London December was mostly lower.  Demand concerns in West Africa continue.  Bigger supplies are expected at West Africa ports soon as Ivory Coast has raised the farmgate price paid to farmers and they are expected to sell.  Ghana has also raised farmgate prices.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market feels that there is less demand and the lack of demand is expected to continue.  Cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast were down 52% between October 1 and October 12 against last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up.  Support is at 5900, 5690, and 5600 December, with resistance at 6440, 6680, and 6870 December.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 4200, 4010, and 3920 December, with resistance at 4700, 4870, and 4970 December.
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