Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Core Inflation Rate MoM & YoY, Inflation Rate MoM & YoY, CPI, and CPI s.a. at 7:30 A.M., S&P Global Composite PMI Flash, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash, and S&P Consumer Sentiment PMI Flash at 8:45 A.M., New Home Sales and New Home Sales MoM, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Consumer Expectations Final, Michigan Current Conditions Final, and Michigan Inflation Expectations Final at 9:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rigs Count at 12:00 P.M., Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage at 2:00 P.M.
The National Association of Realtors reported that US existing home sales in September rose by 60,000 homes from August to 4.06 million. Compared to a year ago, the sales figure was 160,000 homes or 4% larger, but vs. the 5-tear average sales were almost 1 Mil homes or 19% less. Cumulative sales for the year now stand at 36.4 homes, fractionally above last year, but 19% under the 5-year average and 24% less than 2022. Prices remain high and unaffordable due to tight inventory. Inventories remain tight as few homeowners are willing to give up their 3% mortgages. The market remains locked up. The fastest way to fix the real estate market is to let homeowners sell their homes and keep their low-interest-rate loans for new purchases.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Freeze Warnings Start; Drought Begins to Ease in Eastern Midwest; Limited Water Issues in Plains:
It’s the time of year again where we receive frost and freeze warnings and advisories. We have been issued a list from the National Weather Service with the following states affected. WI, IA, IL, MN, NE, IN, OH, KS, WV, KY, VA, NC, MD, PA, and NJ. We will digest the effect on crops and harvest in the coming days. I do expect the US farmer to be ready for the challenge as usual. The Central US forecast maintains soaking showers across large parts of TX, OK, and KS – the entire Delta/Southeast Fri-Monday. A second system producing lite rainfall works across the eastern Midwest next Thurs-Friday. Assuming the EU and AI model forecasts verify cumulative rainfall of 1-2” blankets all but the Central Plains and NW Corn Belt. Locally heavier totals favor OK and the Southeast. The 2025 growing season has ended, but the easing of drought east of the Mississippi River is welcomed. In the last two weeks we have seen abnormal dryness/.drought having been largely eliminated from SRW producing regions of KY, southern IL & OH. The recent expansion of dryness across TX, OK, and LA will be reversed this weekend. Normal to slightly above normal soil moisture is in place across KS and most of the Western Plains. The southern third of the Central US favored for additional drought mitigation.
South American Weather Pattern Update
Favorable South American Weather Forecasts; Argentine Wheat Crop rated 88% Good to Excellent:
A favorable weather pattern is forecast in South America with rain soaking Argentina through the weekend. Heavy rain then migrates northward to Parans & Mato Grosso do Sul next Mon-Tues, and reaches key northern Brazilian soy producing regions by Oct 30th. Daily showers will be a feature across N Brazil thereafter as the monsoon gather’s strength. Brazil’s pattern since mid-September has been rather normal. Even recently enough rain has fallen to spur soybean planting/germination. A 7-day graphic displayed accumulation in Brazil, Paraguay, and northern Argentina. Not all areas benefited from heavy rainfall totals, but highly concentrated crop areas of Brazil have recorded upwards of 2.50”. South American weather will not be a fundamentally bullish catalyst nearby. Argentine corn and Brazilian soybean seeding is active with soil moisture to improve through mid-November.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Jumps Following Soybeans; Seasonal Trends Less Positive in November; South American Weather Ideal Next Two Weeks:
CBOT corn found additional buying as last week’s high was exceeded. There’s a considerable amount of hope surrounding US-Chinese trade – but corn’s rally needs confirmation that tensions are thawing. If such thawing was to occur, its sorghum where private Chinese buyers would see value with cash bids near or below $3.00/Bu. ARC reiterates corn import margins in China are negligible/nonexistent. It’s soy & sorghum that stand to benefit most from any US/China trade deal. Seasonal corn price trends are broadly negative during November specifically – as the cash pipeline is fully replenished – and US farmers still have another 5-5.5 Bil Bu to harvest. ARC is told that US farmers were active sellers of cash corn on the late rally. The Argentine corn crop is 34% planted, vs. 29% last year. A record amount of (19.5 MMT’s) of Argentine corn will be harvested in February/March and available for export. It’s incredibly difficult to forecast 25/26 corn exports above USDA’s 2,975 Mil Bu based on enlarged world competition from February onward. We see strong resistance above $4.30 Basis December corn futures.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
First Freeze & Frost Advisories. The Corn & Ethanol Report 10/24/2025
We kickoff the day with Core Inflation Rate MoM & YoY, Inflation Rate MoM & YoY, CPI, and CPI s.a. at 7:30 A.M., S&P Global Composite PMI Flash, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash, and S&P Consumer Sentiment PMI Flash at 8:45 A.M., New Home Sales and New Home Sales MoM, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Consumer Expectations Final, Michigan Current Conditions Final, and Michigan Inflation Expectations Final at 9:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rigs Count at 12:00 P.M., Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage at 2:00 P.M.
The National Association of Realtors reported that US existing home sales in September rose by 60,000 homes from August to 4.06 million. Compared to a year ago, the sales figure was 160,000 homes or 4% larger, but vs. the 5-tear average sales were almost 1 Mil homes or 19% less. Cumulative sales for the year now stand at 36.4 homes, fractionally above last year, but 19% under the 5-year average and 24% less than 2022. Prices remain high and unaffordable due to tight inventory. Inventories remain tight as few homeowners are willing to give up their 3% mortgages. The market remains locked up. The fastest way to fix the real estate market is to let homeowners sell their homes and keep their low-interest-rate loans for new purchases.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Freeze Warnings Start; Drought Begins to Ease in Eastern Midwest; Limited Water Issues in Plains:
It’s the time of year again where we receive frost and freeze warnings and advisories. We have been issued a list from the National Weather Service with the following states affected. WI, IA, IL, MN, NE, IN, OH, KS, WV, KY, VA, NC, MD, PA, and NJ. We will digest the effect on crops and harvest in the coming days. I do expect the US farmer to be ready for the challenge as usual. The Central US forecast maintains soaking showers across large parts of TX, OK, and KS – the entire Delta/Southeast Fri-Monday. A second system producing lite rainfall works across the eastern Midwest next Thurs-Friday. Assuming the EU and AI model forecasts verify cumulative rainfall of 1-2” blankets all but the Central Plains and NW Corn Belt. Locally heavier totals favor OK and the Southeast. The 2025 growing season has ended, but the easing of drought east of the Mississippi River is welcomed. In the last two weeks we have seen abnormal dryness/.drought having been largely eliminated from SRW producing regions of KY, southern IL & OH. The recent expansion of dryness across TX, OK, and LA will be reversed this weekend. Normal to slightly above normal soil moisture is in place across KS and most of the Western Plains. The southern third of the Central US favored for additional drought mitigation.
South American Weather Pattern Update
Favorable South American Weather Forecasts; Argentine Wheat Crop rated 88% Good to Excellent:
A favorable weather pattern is forecast in South America with rain soaking Argentina through the weekend. Heavy rain then migrates northward to Parans & Mato Grosso do Sul next Mon-Tues, and reaches key northern Brazilian soy producing regions by Oct 30th. Daily showers will be a feature across N Brazil thereafter as the monsoon gather’s strength. Brazil’s pattern since mid-September has been rather normal. Even recently enough rain has fallen to spur soybean planting/germination. A 7-day graphic displayed accumulation in Brazil, Paraguay, and northern Argentina. Not all areas benefited from heavy rainfall totals, but highly concentrated crop areas of Brazil have recorded upwards of 2.50”. South American weather will not be a fundamentally bullish catalyst nearby. Argentine corn and Brazilian soybean seeding is active with soil moisture to improve through mid-November.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Jumps Following Soybeans; Seasonal Trends Less Positive in November; South American Weather Ideal Next Two Weeks:
CBOT corn found additional buying as last week’s high was exceeded. There’s a considerable amount of hope surrounding US-Chinese trade – but corn’s rally needs confirmation that tensions are thawing. If such thawing was to occur, its sorghum where private Chinese buyers would see value with cash bids near or below $3.00/Bu. ARC reiterates corn import margins in China are negligible/nonexistent. It’s soy & sorghum that stand to benefit most from any US/China trade deal. Seasonal corn price trends are broadly negative during November specifically – as the cash pipeline is fully replenished – and US farmers still have another 5-5.5 Bil Bu to harvest. ARC is told that US farmers were active sellers of cash corn on the late rally. The Argentine corn crop is 34% planted, vs. 29% last year. A record amount of (19.5 MMT’s) of Argentine corn will be harvested in February/March and available for export. It’s incredibly difficult to forecast 25/26 corn exports above USDA’s 2,975 Mil Bu based on enlarged world competition from February onward. We see strong resistance above $4.30 Basis December corn futures.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374