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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 10/22/2025

By Jack Scoville On October 22, 2025 - 9:22 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for October Cattle-On-Feed Report

The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report was originally scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday. However, data is suspended if the government shutdown continues.

Average Range

of estimates of estimates

On-feed Oct 1 98.1 97.4 – 98.4

Placed in Sep 91.3 88.1 – 94.0

Marketed in Sep 96.2 93.0 – 97.2

Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed

Oct 1 in Sep in Sep

Allegiant Commodity Group 98.2 92.3 96.0

Allendale Inc. 98.4 91.3 96.8

HedgersEdge 97.8 91.1 96.9

Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 98.1 91.5 96.0

Midwest Market Solutions 98.1 91.5 97.2

NFC Markets 97.4 88.1 96.0

Texas A&M Extension 97.8 90.0 95.6

US Commodities 98.3 94.0 93.0

DJ Farm-Aid Funding Frozen By Shutdown to Be Released — WSJ

USDA will reopen county offices to deliver assistance; more than $3 billion

By Natalie Andrews and Patrick Thomas

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration is planning to release more than $3 billion in aid to U.S. farmers that had been frozen as a result of the government shutdown, as the agriculture sector grapples with the fallout from President Trump’s tariffs.

Trump directed the Agriculture Department to distribute the money from a fund that was used to bail out distressed farmers during Trump’s first term, according to administration officials. Because of furloughs and closed USDA offices, farmers have been unable to access some of the department’s safety-net programs.

Farmers around the country are struggling to make a profit. They are in the midst of harvesting one of the largest corn and soybean crops in history, fueling a glut that is driving down prices. Rising costs for fertilizer and farm equipment are also squeezing their balance sheets

On Thursday, the USDA plans to resume Farm Service Agency core operations, which have been closed for three weeks during the government shutdown. This will allow farmers to access aid, including some safety-net programs.

“President Trump will not let the radical left Democrat shutdown impact critical USDA services while harvest is underway across the country,” Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins wrote on X.

A prolonged government shutdown extending beyond the harvest season without these aid programs could have led to some farmers being unable to make their land rent payments, according to growers.

The administration is discussing a bailout of more than $10 billion for farmers struggling because of Trump’s trade war, but that new relief is on hold while the government is shut down, administration officials said. The reopening of programs and offices would allow farmers to access available funding in the meantime.

Pauses in trade with China have hurt U.S. farmers, along with rising costs for equipment, fertilizer and other materials. U.S. soybean farmers are estimated to lose roughly $100 an acre this year, according to federal data.

The reopened county offices will be staffed by two office employees, five days a week, the officials said. The workers will be paid by carry-over balances and administrative funding, one of the officials said.

During a government shutdown, all personnel deemed nonessential are instructed to stop work. Negotiations over ending the shutdown, which started at the beginning of the month, are at a stalemate.

The more than $3 billion in aid comes from money in the Commodity Credit Corp., which was created in 1933 to stabilize farm incomes and permits the borrowing of billions of dollars from the Treasury to finance its activities.

The aid comes after repeated calls from farmers and farm trade groups to help them keep growers afloat during the administration’s trade war with China. Soybean growers have been particularly hurt. China typically buys a quarter of all American soybeans but has refused to purchase any cargoes in months.

Through August this year, Chinese buyers purchased just over 200 million bushels of U.S. soybeans, compared with almost 1 billion bushels over the same period last year. China accounted for more than half of the $24.5 billion of American soybean exports last year. China, which uses soy from the U.S. mainly for livestock feed, has been investing billions of dollars in South America, specifically Brazil, to help build the region’s soybean production since an earlier trade war during Trump’s first term.

The U.S. government sent about $23 billion to farmers to compensate them for damages suffered during the prior trade war with China. Congress last December passed a $10 billion bailout for farmers to help with low commodity prices.

Trump also plans to push Chinese leader Xi Jinping to buy U.S. soybeans to help struggling American farmers. The two leaders are scheduled to meet on the sidelines of a summit in South Korea next week.

Write to Natalie Andrews at natalie.andrews@wsj.com and Patrick Thomas at patrick.thomas@wsj.com

This article is being republished as part of our daily reproduction of WSJ.com articles that also appeared in the U.S. print edition of The Wall Street Journal (October 22, 2025).

WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat closed lower yesterday on reports of weaker prices paid in Russia and Argentina amid big world supplies. No USDA reports were released due to the government shutdown. Russian crop areas remain too dry in Winter Wheat areas and too wet in Spring Wheat areas, but crop size ideas have increased due primarily to reports of big yields in Spring Wheat growing areas. A French government report showed plenty of production but lower quality. Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains and Canada. It has been warm in the Great Plains so far this Fall. Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 492, 490 and 484 December, with resistance at 507, 513, and 518 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 477, 472, and 466 December, with resistance at 496, 501, and 507 December. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.

RICE:

General Comments Rice was a little lower again yesterday after trading higher early in the day. The selling seems to be relentless. Trends are down in the market. The harvest is wrapping up in Texas and southern Louisiana. Harvest is now wrapping up in Mississippi and Arkansas. Yields and quality are mixed, but quality appears better than a year ago. The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand. Louisiana reports good but not great yields and quality.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1040, 1028, and 1014 November and resistance is at 1098, 1126, and 1145 November.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday on chart based selling as futures fell away from resistance. Trends are sideways in the market. Most USDA reports are cancelled as the government is still closed. The harvest is active in all areas of the Midwest. There are ideas that US production might not be super strong due to disease such as rust to offset the demand losses. Yield reports are showing at or above APH yields in western areas, with very good crops reported in Minnesota. Yields have been reported at or less than APH in areas east of the Mississippi River. Temperatures should average near to above normal this week and there are forecasts for mostly dry conditions. Most of the western Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high. Areas east of the Mississippi River have been very dry for the last month or more. Demand for Corn in world markets remains moderate to strong. Oats were a little lower.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 408, 405, and 402 December, and resistance is at 424, 428, and 431 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up. Support is at 295, 288, and 285 December, and resistance is at 308, 311, and 316 December.

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday as the trade war between the US and China continued but as President Trump said that a primary focus of his proposed meeting with Xi of China remains Chinese Soybeans demand. President Trump raised tariffs on China to 100% yesterday to hurt the upside in Soybeans. Traders are looking forward to positive results from the meeting between Trump and Xi near the end of the month. China has shown no interest in buying US ag products and Trump has also threatened to regulate cooking oil imports from China in a new escalation in the war as China is restricting Rare Earth metals to the US. Forecasts call for showers and rains to be seen in the Midwest this week. Temperatures will average near normal. Prices are still higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America due to the Trump tariff regime.

Overnight News:

Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up. Support is at 1020, 1010, and 1001 November, and resistance is at 1038, 1053, and 1063 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up. Support is at 279.00, 275.00, and 273.00 December, and resistance is at 287.00, 290.00, and 295.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4920, 4890, and 4770 December, with resistance at 5180, 5220, and 5390 December.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA

General Comments: Palm Oil futures were a little lower yesterday after opening higher on ideas of increasing supplies for the market. The market sentiment overall is bullish despite some concerns about Indian demand Canola was a little lower as Canada and China agreed to negotiate trade issues that have included a ban on imports of Canadian Canola by China. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.

s. Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 596.00, 590.00, and 584.00 November, with resistance at 625.00, 630.00, and 640.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4470, 4410, and 4360 January, with resistance at 4570, 4620, and 4630 January.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 22

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports