Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 20-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., Dairy Products Sales and Milk Production at 2:00 P.M.
As we move closer to CBOT October Grain Option Expiration on Friday, a couple of notes and/or reminders of food for thought in this year’s trade., with US summer row crop harvests nearing completion, cash markets are assured of large supplies in the year ahead. As such, option volatility in the three primary grain markets is historically low. Corn volume has ticked slightly higher this week, but last week fell to 13.5% or the lowest level since February 2020. Compared to a year ago corn volume is down 4%. Wheat volume is at 18.3% and 9% less than a year ago. 2 weeks ago, wheat volume was at 16.7% the lowest since November 2019. Soybean volume this week has jumped to a 16-week high of 16.9%, but compared to a year ago is 3% lower. Historically, low CBOT grain option volatility is indicating that overwhelming US grain supplies are not reflecting any major supply worry into 2026.
South American Weather Update
South American Pattern Shift Occurs Nov 1st :
The forecast is consistent and the principal forecasting models agree. Soakin rain impacts all of Argentina into the weekend. Soaking rain then shifts northward into Paraguay & Brazil beginning November 1st, and f current two-week forecast verify the entirety of South America benefits from cumulative precipitation of 1.50-4.00”. More rain will be needed in fringe producing areas of NE Brazil, but elsewhere early crop health will be solid. The coming mix of rain stabilizes soil moisture and speeds along planting. The growing season begins in earnest in November as Argentine corn seeding surpasses 35% complete, Argentine soybean planting begins in the first half of next month and soy planting in both Parana and Mato Grosso in Brazil will surpass 60% complete. Near-term threats are absent. Once the monsoon season starts in November, which is often last through February or March. Drought is not an issue for Southern Brazil or Argentina.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Corrects; E15 Less Likely; US-Columbian Presidential Tensions a Concern:
Global corn Futures ended lower. The weakest market was Argentina which posted losses of $0.5/Bu while Brazil and Ukraine fell $.02. The US farmer was active in harvest ands the sheer supply of the 2025 crop is finally starting to be felt in the W & C Midwest is being stored in the ground. It has been years since “Midwest piles of gold” have emerged. It’s the heavy cash corn market that sparked CBOT corn futures selling. The American Petroleum Institute (API) pushed back E15 due to changing market conditions. The price of ethanol is above the price of wholesale unleaded gasoline. And the US does not have enough ethanol capacity to produce more than another 300-500 gallons annually.
US ethanol capacity has been growing just 1% annually. New investment is needed and from permitting to production in a 3-year journey. EU corn prices are seasonally weak on the large supply of wheat that exists for feeding across the continent. Farmers often choose to feed wheat vs. corn which is pressuring prices. Ant March corn rally to $4.40-$4.45 is a sale.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Fundamentals and Technicals – Should I Stay or Should Go. The Corn & Ethanol Report 10/22/2025
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 20-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., Dairy Products Sales and Milk Production at 2:00 P.M.
As we move closer to CBOT October Grain Option Expiration on Friday, a couple of notes and/or reminders of food for thought in this year’s trade., with US summer row crop harvests nearing completion, cash markets are assured of large supplies in the year ahead. As such, option volatility in the three primary grain markets is historically low. Corn volume has ticked slightly higher this week, but last week fell to 13.5% or the lowest level since February 2020. Compared to a year ago corn volume is down 4%. Wheat volume is at 18.3% and 9% less than a year ago. 2 weeks ago, wheat volume was at 16.7% the lowest since November 2019. Soybean volume this week has jumped to a 16-week high of 16.9%, but compared to a year ago is 3% lower. Historically, low CBOT grain option volatility is indicating that overwhelming US grain supplies are not reflecting any major supply worry into 2026.
South American Weather Update
South American Pattern Shift Occurs Nov 1st :
The forecast is consistent and the principal forecasting models agree. Soakin rain impacts all of Argentina into the weekend. Soaking rain then shifts northward into Paraguay & Brazil beginning November 1st, and f current two-week forecast verify the entirety of South America benefits from cumulative precipitation of 1.50-4.00”. More rain will be needed in fringe producing areas of NE Brazil, but elsewhere early crop health will be solid. The coming mix of rain stabilizes soil moisture and speeds along planting. The growing season begins in earnest in November as Argentine corn seeding surpasses 35% complete, Argentine soybean planting begins in the first half of next month and soy planting in both Parana and Mato Grosso in Brazil will surpass 60% complete. Near-term threats are absent. Once the monsoon season starts in November, which is often last through February or March. Drought is not an issue for Southern Brazil or Argentina.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Corrects; E15 Less Likely; US-Columbian Presidential Tensions a Concern:
Global corn Futures ended lower. The weakest market was Argentina which posted losses of $0.5/Bu while Brazil and Ukraine fell $.02. The US farmer was active in harvest ands the sheer supply of the 2025 crop is finally starting to be felt in the W & C Midwest is being stored in the ground. It has been years since “Midwest piles of gold” have emerged. It’s the heavy cash corn market that sparked CBOT corn futures selling. The American Petroleum Institute (API) pushed back E15 due to changing market conditions. The price of ethanol is above the price of wholesale unleaded gasoline. And the US does not have enough ethanol capacity to produce more than another 300-500 gallons annually.
US ethanol capacity has been growing just 1% annually. New investment is needed and from permitting to production in a 3-year journey. EU corn prices are seasonally weak on the large supply of wheat that exists for feeding across the continent. Farmers often choose to feed wheat vs. corn which is pressuring prices. Ant March corn rally to $4.40-$4.45 is a sale.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374