Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., Fed Waller Speech at 8:00 A.M., NY Fed Treasury Purchases 1 to 2.5 yrs. at 9:30 A.M., Fed Waller Speech at 2:30 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.
Open interest in the CBOT grain markets has been steadily rising in recent months. Corn open interest at the end of last week totaled 1.646 Mil contracts, the highest since late May, and was 3% larger than a year ago. Soybean open interest saw 23,000 contracts liquidated last week, it was the highest since October 2020, and the 2nd highest on record. But after last week’s liquidation, total soybean open interest was unchanged from a year ago. Additional liquidation is expected in the coming weeks ahead of the November expiration. Open interest in Chicago wheat last week stood at 536,619 contracts, the most since November 2028 and within 8% of the record set in 2017. Compared to a year ago, wheat open interest was 32% larger.
South American Weather Pattern Update
Rain Soaks Argentina This Week; Brazilian Forecast a Mix of Rain/Sun Next Two Weeks:
The South American forecast is consistent and viewed as non-threatening. Showers will be spread evenly across Argentina’s Ag Belt Tues-Fri. Heavy cumulative totals upward of 2.0” are offered to Buenos Aires, Santa Fe & Entre Rios. A drier pattern resumes in central and northern Brazil, but this follows solid coverage of .80-3.00” in the last 7 days, and a more normal precipitation pattern is forecast in Brazil after Nov 1st. Regular shower activity will be needed in Brazil thereafter, but the coming mix of rain/sun and near-normal temps allow soy and first crop corn seeding to speed along. Otherwise, ocean temp forecasts maintain any La Nins event will be weak & short lived. Neutral ENSO resumes by late Dec/Jan. Drought in Argentina and southern Brazil is not a concern today.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Additional Boost in Moisture Forecast in Southern Plains/Delta Region:
Rain fell as expected over the weekend across the E Midwest, where totals of .50+” were recorded across MO, IL, IN, OH & MI. Central US rainfall this week favors KS and the eastern halves of TX/OK as well as the entire Delta region. The EU, GFS, and NOAA models are in agreement that precipitation of 1-2” favors KS, eastern OK, LA, AR,MO, and the very southern parts of IL & IN. Severe drought east of the Mississippi River is being eased slowly. NOAA’s predicted soil moisture anomalies shows positive moisture anomalies will stay present across key HRW areas and rapid moisture improvement has occurred across SRW producing areas of KY, southern IL and southern IN. A pattern of above winter precipitation is still desired across the eastern Midwest and Upper Great Lakes to end drought completely ahead of planting in 2026.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Corn Rides Soy Rally to Modest Gain; Resistance Intact:
CBOT corn futures ended slightly higher, but Dec trading through its 20-day and 100-day moving averages hasn’t attracted much excitement. Key resistance lies just above the market, and ARC maintains rallies will e challenged by oversupplied US feed markets and nearly ideal weather in Argentina & Southern Brazil. We do note disappearance remains robust. Us corn export inspections week ending Oct 16th totaled 52 Mil Bu, vs. 48 Mil the previous and up 13 Mil on the same week a year ago. Massive Latin American demand has provided an outlet for newly harvested crops and worked to support basis at river export terminals. However, big-picture themes remain centered on lack of global supply issues. Just less than half of the US corn harvest lies ahead. ARC sees any test of $4.40-$4.45 March CBOT, as the next selling opportunity. South American drought is needed to sustain bull trends. The possibility of record Argentina production remains in place amid abundant soil moisture and fast planting of the first corn crop. Argentina is on track to produce a corn crop exceeding 60 MMT’s.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Corn Rides Soybean Coattails on Renewed China Optimism. The Corn & Ethanol Report 10/21/2025
We kickoff the day with Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., Fed Waller Speech at 8:00 A.M., NY Fed Treasury Purchases 1 to 2.5 yrs. at 9:30 A.M., Fed Waller Speech at 2:30 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.
Open interest in the CBOT grain markets has been steadily rising in recent months. Corn open interest at the end of last week totaled 1.646 Mil contracts, the highest since late May, and was 3% larger than a year ago. Soybean open interest saw 23,000 contracts liquidated last week, it was the highest since October 2020, and the 2nd highest on record. But after last week’s liquidation, total soybean open interest was unchanged from a year ago. Additional liquidation is expected in the coming weeks ahead of the November expiration. Open interest in Chicago wheat last week stood at 536,619 contracts, the most since November 2028 and within 8% of the record set in 2017. Compared to a year ago, wheat open interest was 32% larger.
South American Weather Pattern Update
Rain Soaks Argentina This Week; Brazilian Forecast a Mix of Rain/Sun Next Two Weeks:
The South American forecast is consistent and viewed as non-threatening. Showers will be spread evenly across Argentina’s Ag Belt Tues-Fri. Heavy cumulative totals upward of 2.0” are offered to Buenos Aires, Santa Fe & Entre Rios. A drier pattern resumes in central and northern Brazil, but this follows solid coverage of .80-3.00” in the last 7 days, and a more normal precipitation pattern is forecast in Brazil after Nov 1st. Regular shower activity will be needed in Brazil thereafter, but the coming mix of rain/sun and near-normal temps allow soy and first crop corn seeding to speed along. Otherwise, ocean temp forecasts maintain any La Nins event will be weak & short lived. Neutral ENSO resumes by late Dec/Jan. Drought in Argentina and southern Brazil is not a concern today.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Additional Boost in Moisture Forecast in Southern Plains/Delta Region:
Rain fell as expected over the weekend across the E Midwest, where totals of .50+” were recorded across MO, IL, IN, OH & MI. Central US rainfall this week favors KS and the eastern halves of TX/OK as well as the entire Delta region. The EU, GFS, and NOAA models are in agreement that precipitation of 1-2” favors KS, eastern OK, LA, AR,MO, and the very southern parts of IL & IN. Severe drought east of the Mississippi River is being eased slowly. NOAA’s predicted soil moisture anomalies shows positive moisture anomalies will stay present across key HRW areas and rapid moisture improvement has occurred across SRW producing areas of KY, southern IL and southern IN. A pattern of above winter precipitation is still desired across the eastern Midwest and Upper Great Lakes to end drought completely ahead of planting in 2026.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Corn Rides Soy Rally to Modest Gain; Resistance Intact:
CBOT corn futures ended slightly higher, but Dec trading through its 20-day and 100-day moving averages hasn’t attracted much excitement. Key resistance lies just above the market, and ARC maintains rallies will e challenged by oversupplied US feed markets and nearly ideal weather in Argentina & Southern Brazil. We do note disappearance remains robust. Us corn export inspections week ending Oct 16th totaled 52 Mil Bu, vs. 48 Mil the previous and up 13 Mil on the same week a year ago. Massive Latin American demand has provided an outlet for newly harvested crops and worked to support basis at river export terminals. However, big-picture themes remain centered on lack of global supply issues. Just less than half of the US corn harvest lies ahead. ARC sees any test of $4.40-$4.45 March CBOT, as the next selling opportunity. South American drought is needed to sustain bull trends. The possibility of record Argentina production remains in place amid abundant soil moisture and fast planting of the first corn crop. Argentina is on track to produce a corn crop exceeding 60 MMT’s.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374