Hey Im On, The Phone! The Energy Report 10/17/2025

And it went well, as the President ‘truthed”, “I have just concluded my telephone conversation with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, and it was a very productive one. President Putin congratulated me and the United States on the Great Accomplishment of Peace in the Middle East, something that, he said, has been dreamed of for centuries. I actually believe that the Success in the Middle East will help in our negotiation in attaining an end to the War with Russia/Ukraine.

President Putin thanked the First Lady, Melania for her involvement with children. He was very appreciative and said that this will continue. We also spent a great deal of time talking about Trade between Russia and the United States when the War with Ukraine is over. At the conclusion of the call, we agreed that there will be a meeting of our High-Level Advisors, next week.

The United States’ initial meetings will be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, together with various other people, to be designated. A meeting location is to be determined. President Putin and I will then meet in an agreed upon location, Budapest, Hungary, to see if we can bring this “inglorious” War, between Russia and Ukraine, to an end. President Zelenskyy and I will be meeting tomorrow, in the Oval Office, where we will discuss my conversation with President Putin, and much more. I believe great progress was made with today’s telephone conversation.”

So, did that progress get helped along by President Trumps pressure on India, China and Japan to stop buying Russian oil? It does look like President Trump’s firm push on India, China, and Japan to ease off Russian crude finally moved the needle. It’s clear that Russian oil has become a central sticking point in the ongoing US-India trade negotiations

As the largest buyer of Russian seaborne oil, India has committed to increasing its US energy imports to help smooth things over, and insiders suggest a potential drop in Russian purchase volumes as early as December through January according to Reuters. While a White House official reports that India’s imports have already been cut in half, sources in New Delhi indicate no sharp decline has materialized just yet.

The administration continues to urge a broader slowdown on those discounted Russian supplies worldwide, and should this hold, it might provide just the lift crude prices need heading into the quieter winter months. Keep an eye on the spreads, traders—this setup still looks constructive for the fundamentals. Call Phil Flynn to learn more about breads 888-264-5665.

The other reason oil fell is banking concerns. Whenever we see instability in the banking system it is bad for oil. Reuters reported that regional players Zions (ZION.O) dropped 13% after booking a $50 million Q3 loss on some troubled California loans, and Western Alliance (WAL.N) slid 11% as it filed a fraud suit against Cantor Group V, LLC, with Cantor’s team pushing back hard on the claims. That one-two hit rippled through U.S. bank stocks and pulled the dollar lower, giving a nice lift to the yen and Swiss franc in the process but turned oil lower.

Remember that oil prices also took a significant hit amid the 2023 United States banking crisis, an abrupt wave of financial instability that erupted mainly in March 2023. The episode featured the swift collapse of several regional banks, igniting fears of a wider systemic collapse akin to the 2008 financial meltdown. In a mere five days, three mid-sized institutions—Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Signature Bank, and Silvergate Bank—failed, triggering a plunge in global banking stocks and necessitating urgent regulatory actions to curb contagion. First Republic Bank succumbed shortly thereafter on March 16, pushing the combined assets of the failed entities to roughly $900 billion.

This turmoil laid bare deep-seated weaknesses in the U.S. banking sector, exacerbated by the Federal Reserve’s steep interest rate increases since 2022 to tame inflation. On the energy front, the panic spurred a sharp sell-off in crude, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures tumbling more than 12% from early March levels to a 15-month low near $67 per barrel by March 15, the steepest one-day drop in over eight months—as investors dumped positions amid recession jitters. Prices rebounded somewhat by month’s end, but the episode underscored oil’s vulnerability to banking shocks and broader economic uncertainty.  So with lower geopolitical risk and banking worries it is opening us up for more downsides that may speed up a contraction is our shale production.  We are getting to the point where low prices will start to cure low prices.

Natural gas prices fell after the EIA reported that supplies increased 80bcf in line with expectations. While long term demand expectations continue to rise with more LNG capacity coming online. Jodi Shafto at Energy Intelligence writes that traders chill on winter bets as natural gas forwards tumble. She wrote that, “Natural gas prices tumbled across the forward curve during the Oct. 9–15 period, as traders shed cold-winter bets amid forecasts for lingering mild weather and storage levels near record highs. The EIA reported that working gas in storage was 3,721 Bcf as of Friday, October 10, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 80 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 26 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 154 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,567 Bcf. At 3,721 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

The key thing to do here is to download the Fox Weather app and you should also stay tuned to the Fox Business Network. Sign up to get my Daily Trade Levels and to open your account by calling Phil Flynn at 888-264-5665 or e-mail me at pflynn@pricegroup.com.