Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with reports that may be suspended due to the government shutdown. NFIB Business Optimism Index at 5:00 A.M., Fed Bowman Speech at 7:45 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Chair Powell Speech at 11:20 A.M., Fed Waller Speech at 2:25 P.M., Fed Collins Speech at 2:30 P.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast estimate for US Q3 GDP estimate for US Q3 GDP, released on Friday, was 2.3%. This was down from 2.55% in late September but well above the early July estimate of 1.78%. The 50% probability interval was at 1.3-3.4%, and the 80% interval was at 0.3-4.5%. Of course there was a minimal amount of news released last week to sway the estimates in one direction or the other. Specifically, the forecast lacked import and export data from the now delayed October International Trade Report. The forecast for Q4 declined by 0.1% from the previous week due to a negative surprise from the ISM non-manufacturing survey data.
US Weather Pattern Update
Welcome Moisture Ahead for Mid-South/E Midwest:
The Central US forecast is wetter and confidence is high that rain will be widespread across the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Delta/Southeast after October 18th. NOAA’s QPF has pulled better shower activity across MO, AR, and areas east of the Mississippi River into its 7-day forecast. There are also hints that much of TX, OK, LA, & AR see additional rain in the 8-14 day period. Any/all rain is welcome following historic dryness in August, September, and early October. Midwest harvest progress continues unabated into Wed/Thurs. Late week showers favor the Dakotas, MN, and WI, and better organized rain sweep across the E Midwest Oct 18-20. The benefits the southern Midwest SRW crop the most. Dryness and ongoing warmth resumes across the Plains & Midwest in the 11-15- day period. Corn and soybean harvests nationally surpass 75% complete by Oct 25th.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Corn Extends Price Fall On Expanding Midwest Harvest; Chines Corn Market Falls Sharply:
CBOT corn stays below the moving averages amid the deluge of US supply that is ahead. The details of US-Chinese talks matter for the soy complex, but China is not expected to be a large importer of corn in 2025/26. Spot Dalian corn on Monday fell to a multi year low at $7.40/Bu. Dalian’s premium to US Gulf is a modest $96/MT, vs. $1.70-$1.90 ahead of bulk Chinese imports in 2020. End users/importers see little/no reason to chase rallies as China and Europe are oversupplied with feed grain. The US harvest is estimated to be 40% completed. Total physical supplies are projected to exist 0.&-0.9 Mil Bu above last year by this weekend. Next support lies at $4.05 Dec, and new contract lows cannot be ruled out as farmers need cash and US storage availability tightens. Be prepared to sell March corn above $4.40 as this year’s post-harvest rally will be modest. The wetter Argentine forecast pushes off any drought concerns to mid/late November with a record harvest of 59-62 MMT’s possible with normal rain through the end of November.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Farmers Face Cash & Storage Issues. The Corn & Ethanol Report 10/14/2025
We kickoff the day with reports that may be suspended due to the government shutdown. NFIB Business Optimism Index at 5:00 A.M., Fed Bowman Speech at 7:45 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Chair Powell Speech at 11:20 A.M., Fed Waller Speech at 2:25 P.M., Fed Collins Speech at 2:30 P.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast estimate for US Q3 GDP estimate for US Q3 GDP, released on Friday, was 2.3%. This was down from 2.55% in late September but well above the early July estimate of 1.78%. The 50% probability interval was at 1.3-3.4%, and the 80% interval was at 0.3-4.5%. Of course there was a minimal amount of news released last week to sway the estimates in one direction or the other. Specifically, the forecast lacked import and export data from the now delayed October International Trade Report. The forecast for Q4 declined by 0.1% from the previous week due to a negative surprise from the ISM non-manufacturing survey data.
US Weather Pattern Update
Welcome Moisture Ahead for Mid-South/E Midwest:
The Central US forecast is wetter and confidence is high that rain will be widespread across the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Delta/Southeast after October 18th. NOAA’s QPF has pulled better shower activity across MO, AR, and areas east of the Mississippi River into its 7-day forecast. There are also hints that much of TX, OK, LA, & AR see additional rain in the 8-14 day period. Any/all rain is welcome following historic dryness in August, September, and early October. Midwest harvest progress continues unabated into Wed/Thurs. Late week showers favor the Dakotas, MN, and WI, and better organized rain sweep across the E Midwest Oct 18-20. The benefits the southern Midwest SRW crop the most. Dryness and ongoing warmth resumes across the Plains & Midwest in the 11-15- day period. Corn and soybean harvests nationally surpass 75% complete by Oct 25th.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Corn Extends Price Fall On Expanding Midwest Harvest; Chines Corn Market Falls Sharply:
CBOT corn stays below the moving averages amid the deluge of US supply that is ahead. The details of US-Chinese talks matter for the soy complex, but China is not expected to be a large importer of corn in 2025/26. Spot Dalian corn on Monday fell to a multi year low at $7.40/Bu. Dalian’s premium to US Gulf is a modest $96/MT, vs. $1.70-$1.90 ahead of bulk Chinese imports in 2020. End users/importers see little/no reason to chase rallies as China and Europe are oversupplied with feed grain. The US harvest is estimated to be 40% completed. Total physical supplies are projected to exist 0.&-0.9 Mil Bu above last year by this weekend. Next support lies at $4.05 Dec, and new contract lows cannot be ruled out as farmers need cash and US storage availability tightens. Be prepared to sell March corn above $4.40 as this year’s post-harvest rally will be modest. The wetter Argentine forecast pushes off any drought concerns to mid/late November with a record harvest of 59-62 MMT’s possible with normal rain through the end of November.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374