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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Softs Report 10/13/2025

By On October 13, 2025 - 9:59 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
COTTON
General Comments:   Cotton was higher last week in sideways trading and as the US government has continued to be shut down.  The US Dolar remains high to hurt upside potential and demand ideas.  There are no more USDA reports coming due to the closure.  The US harvest has started in most areas and initial yield reports are positive.  There are still ideas that growing conditions are generally good.  There are still reports of good weather in Texas and into the southeast with warm temperatures and a few showers and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around.  Bolls are opening and there is mostly no rain except for a few showers.  The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News:  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 70 contracts.
Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 63.30, 62.10, and 60.90 December, with resistance of 66.10, 66.60 and 67.00 December.
FCOJ
General Comments:  :  Futures were lower again last week as a US government shutdown continues.  Trends are still down on the charts.  The weather is considered good for production here and in Brazil and Mexico.  Development conditions are good in Florida and in Brazil now with daily rounds of showers in Florida and dry weather in Brazil.  The poor production potential for the crops comes from early dry weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida to lose trees.  Brazil production potential got hurt by cold and dry weather seen earlier in the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down.  Support is at 200.00, 194.00, and 188.00 November, with resistance at 224.00, 238.00, and 248.00 November.
COFFEE
General Comments:  New York and London were both lower last week.  Ideas are that a Trump-Lula meeting could happen at the ASEAN summit in late October but nothing has been confirmed.  Reports indicated that the weather in Brazil will improve.  Dry conditions have been reported in Coffee production areas lately and rains are expected to return over the next couple of weeks.  There are still reduced deliverable supplies for both exchanges, but the lack of deliverable stocks in both markets has supported the futures market.  Vietnam has seen mostly good growing conditions but too much rain from some tropical systems has been reported in some areas.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 314.68 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 368.00, 356.00, and 351.00 December, and resistance is at 393.00, 408.00 and 424.00 December.  Trends in London are mixed to up.  Support is at 4380, 4240, and 4120 November, with resistance at 4690, 4860, and 4980 November.
SUGAR
General Comments:  New York and London were mostly a little lower yesterday.  Trends are still sideways in London, and trends in New York are sideways as well.  Ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue.  Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong.   The outlook for cane crops in India and Thailand are in good condition with reports of good rains this year, while Brazilian cane continue to favor producing sugar over ethanol.  The prospect of a global surplus in the 2025/26 season was keeping the market on the defensive with a rise in production in India and Thailand set to increased supplies while global consumption is expected to remain steady.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1580, 1550, and 1520 March and resistance is at 1680, 1700, and 1720 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 439.00, 433.00, and 427.00 December, with resistance at 466.00, 470.00, and 477.00 December.
COCOA
General Comments:  Both markets closed lower last week and New York closed at new lows for the move on Friday.  Demand concerns in West Africa continue.  Bigger supplies are expected at West Africa ports soon as Ivory Coast has raised the farmgate price paid to farmers and they are expected to sell.  Ghana has also raised farmgate prices.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market feels that there is less demand and the lack of demand is expected to continue.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down.  Support is at 5820, 5700, and 5580 December, with resistance at 6870, 7140, and 7380 December.  Trends in London are mixed to down.  Support is at 4110, 4040, and 5920 December, with resistance at 4690, 4830, and 4970 December.
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