Look, I realize it’s not February, so Groundhog Day may not have the best set up for this week’s column. However, as with the movie Groundhog Day and everything being on repeat, my brain seems to have hit the repeat button, as my initial thought for a column title of Red October was taken last year. However, Groundhog Day still seems to have some relevance to this week, especially Friday, as the current trade situation is unfolding again, with threats of increased tariffs in just over 3 weeks. Earlier this afternoon, President Trump announced plans to raise tariffs on Chinese goods by 100% on November 1st, a move that has been done before, maybe just by a different %. Will it hold or not, as the two country’s leaders are set to meet (which he also called into question) around that time period, is still up for debate. As one would expect, the market did not appreciate this talk, with much of the commodity complex seeing some pressure, with exception to cattle bulls which seem impermeable at this point.
Corn extended the pullback this week, mainly on the Thursday/Friday move, with December down 6 cents from a week ago. USDA offices were closed for the most part, as the government shutdown continued, though we did still get export inspections data. That report showed 1.6 MMT of corn exports in the week of 10/2, up 3.9% from last week and 68.7% larger than last year. The first month and 2 days saw exports already up 56.06% from the same period last year. Weekly EIA data from Wednesday showed ethanol production back up 76,000 barrels per day in the week ending on October 3 at 1.071 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol continued to see a tightening pattern despite the increased output, with a drop of 44,000 barrels to 22.72 million barrels.
The wheat complex saw the pressure continue this week, as bears remain in control and grind the market lower. MPLS was down another 8 cents (-1.43%) this week to see the most modest losses. Chicago SRW futures were 16 3/4 cents in the red on the week, with the December KC HRW contract showing a 14 cent loss. News was light this week with the government shutdown. Export Inspections were at 505,096 MT, which was 38.5% above last year. In the first 4 months of the marketing year shipments are 16.7% above last year at 10.18 MMT.
Soybeans had some buying early this week in follow through from comments that soybeans are going to be a topic in their conversation later this month. That talk was quickly put in the back burner with the threat of increased tariffs on Friday and increased tension, as November fell 11 ¼ cents this week. December soybean meal was down $3.60/ton (1.29%) on the week, as bean oil was 8 points (0.16%) lower. FGIS data showed soybean exports at 768,117 MT in the week of 10/2, which is now well below (-52.8%) from the same week last year as the seasonality is now in play. Marketing year shipments are now 14.8% below last year in the first month.
Live cattle took back some recent weakness and got within spitting distance of contract highs, as October was up $7.45 this week. Cash trade was a big part of that, as late week action was up $4-5 at $234-235 in the north and $235 in the South. Feeders were the leaders in the early part of the week, with October $18.32 higher since last Friday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $5.35 week/week to $367.92. Wholesale boxed beef prices saw some recovery this week. Choice was back up $3.30/cwt (0.9%) this week to $365.57. Select was $1.01 (0.3%) higher at $346.39 as of Friday. Seasonal beef prices will see a modest recovery during October. Weekly cattle slaughter was estimated at 547,000 head by the USDA. That was a 15,000 head drop from last week and 38,377 head below the same week last year.
Hogs were under pressure for much of the week, as some long liquidation was noted with open interest dropping and December down $3.27 this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $3.62 this week at $100.08 as of October 8. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down another $3.88 (3.6%) this week to $104.42/cwt. The belly led the way to the downside, $21.84 lower, as the rib and ham saw a slight gain. Weekly hog slaughter totaled 2.577 million head this week according to USDA. That was 25,000 head below last week and 6,066 head below the same week in 2024.
Cotton futures fell to new lows this week, pressured by the ongoing trade situation, with December 146 points lower. With the lack of Export Sales Data, the market is trying to gauge demand, though it is likely not from China. On Friday, President Trump increased tensions by stating he may not meet President Xi at the end of the month and is looking increase tariffs due to the increased tensions this week. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report and AWP were not reported, as well as the Cotton Ginnings and WASDE reports that were scheduled for Thursday.
Market Watch
With the government shutdown continuing, things will likely be quiet again next week, assuming no resolution has been agreed to. Monday is naturally a government holiday, being Columbus Day, with the markets remaining open. Export Inspections will be released on Tuesday, with lean hog futures and options and soybean meal and oil expiring that day. Crop Progress data will likely be delayed, as well as the monthly CPI (Wednesday) and PPI (Thursday) data. NOPA is expected to release their monthly report on Wednesday, showing September crush. EIA data is expected out on Thursday, with the Friday released of Export Sales likely in doubt.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn had a rough end to the week. After holding the 40-day moving average support at $4.18, it gave way on Friday morning. The 2/3 speedline off the August low also at $4.15 failed to hold at the close, after seeing the buying on October 1. The uptrend line at $4.14 also failed to hold at the close. The next line of support is the 50% Fib retracement at $4.11 ½, with the 61.8% at $4.06 ¾. The bearish MACD says to look out for the gap on the weekly continuation chart at $4.05 ¼. There is a H&S top, with a count near $4.03. CCI is oversold and argues for a bounce, though it seems the bulls are in hiding. The long term objective to the upside is the July 4th chart gap at $4.32 ¾.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Groundhog Day. Ag Marketing Report 10/13/2025
Look, I realize it’s not February, so Groundhog Day may not have the best set up for this week’s column. However, as with the movie Groundhog Day and everything being on repeat, my brain seems to have hit the repeat button, as my initial thought for a column title of Red October was taken last year. However, Groundhog Day still seems to have some relevance to this week, especially Friday, as the current trade situation is unfolding again, with threats of increased tariffs in just over 3 weeks. Earlier this afternoon, President Trump announced plans to raise tariffs on Chinese goods by 100% on November 1st, a move that has been done before, maybe just by a different %. Will it hold or not, as the two country’s leaders are set to meet (which he also called into question) around that time period, is still up for debate. As one would expect, the market did not appreciate this talk, with much of the commodity complex seeing some pressure, with exception to cattle bulls which seem impermeable at this point.
Corn extended the pullback this week, mainly on the Thursday/Friday move, with December down 6 cents from a week ago. USDA offices were closed for the most part, as the government shutdown continued, though we did still get export inspections data. That report showed 1.6 MMT of corn exports in the week of 10/2, up 3.9% from last week and 68.7% larger than last year. The first month and 2 days saw exports already up 56.06% from the same period last year. Weekly EIA data from Wednesday showed ethanol production back up 76,000 barrels per day in the week ending on October 3 at 1.071 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol continued to see a tightening pattern despite the increased output, with a drop of 44,000 barrels to 22.72 million barrels.
The wheat complex saw the pressure continue this week, as bears remain in control and grind the market lower. MPLS was down another 8 cents (-1.43%) this week to see the most modest losses. Chicago SRW futures were 16 3/4 cents in the red on the week, with the December KC HRW contract showing a 14 cent loss. News was light this week with the government shutdown. Export Inspections were at 505,096 MT, which was 38.5% above last year. In the first 4 months of the marketing year shipments are 16.7% above last year at 10.18 MMT.
Soybeans had some buying early this week in follow through from comments that soybeans are going to be a topic in their conversation later this month. That talk was quickly put in the back burner with the threat of increased tariffs on Friday and increased tension, as November fell 11 ¼ cents this week. December soybean meal was down $3.60/ton (1.29%) on the week, as bean oil was 8 points (0.16%) lower. FGIS data showed soybean exports at 768,117 MT in the week of 10/2, which is now well below (-52.8%) from the same week last year as the seasonality is now in play. Marketing year shipments are now 14.8% below last year in the first month.
Live cattle took back some recent weakness and got within spitting distance of contract highs, as October was up $7.45 this week. Cash trade was a big part of that, as late week action was up $4-5 at $234-235 in the north and $235 in the South. Feeders were the leaders in the early part of the week, with October $18.32 higher since last Friday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $5.35 week/week to $367.92. Wholesale boxed beef prices saw some recovery this week. Choice was back up $3.30/cwt (0.9%) this week to $365.57. Select was $1.01 (0.3%) higher at $346.39 as of Friday. Seasonal beef prices will see a modest recovery during October. Weekly cattle slaughter was estimated at 547,000 head by the USDA. That was a 15,000 head drop from last week and 38,377 head below the same week last year.
Hogs were under pressure for much of the week, as some long liquidation was noted with open interest dropping and December down $3.27 this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $3.62 this week at $100.08 as of October 8. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down another $3.88 (3.6%) this week to $104.42/cwt. The belly led the way to the downside, $21.84 lower, as the rib and ham saw a slight gain. Weekly hog slaughter totaled 2.577 million head this week according to USDA. That was 25,000 head below last week and 6,066 head below the same week in 2024.
Cotton futures fell to new lows this week, pressured by the ongoing trade situation, with December 146 points lower. With the lack of Export Sales Data, the market is trying to gauge demand, though it is likely not from China. On Friday, President Trump increased tensions by stating he may not meet President Xi at the end of the month and is looking increase tariffs due to the increased tensions this week. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report and AWP were not reported, as well as the Cotton Ginnings and WASDE reports that were scheduled for Thursday.
Market Watch
With the government shutdown continuing, things will likely be quiet again next week, assuming no resolution has been agreed to. Monday is naturally a government holiday, being Columbus Day, with the markets remaining open. Export Inspections will be released on Tuesday, with lean hog futures and options and soybean meal and oil expiring that day. Crop Progress data will likely be delayed, as well as the monthly CPI (Wednesday) and PPI (Thursday) data. NOPA is expected to release their monthly report on Wednesday, showing September crush. EIA data is expected out on Thursday, with the Friday released of Export Sales likely in doubt.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn had a rough end to the week. After holding the 40-day moving average support at $4.18, it gave way on Friday morning. The 2/3 speedline off the August low also at $4.15 failed to hold at the close, after seeing the buying on October 1. The uptrend line at $4.14 also failed to hold at the close. The next line of support is the 50% Fib retracement at $4.11 ½, with the 61.8% at $4.06 ¾. The bearish MACD says to look out for the gap on the weekly continuation chart at $4.05 ¼. There is a H&S top, with a count near $4.03. CCI is oversold and argues for a bounce, though it seems the bulls are in hiding. The long term objective to the upside is the July 4th chart gap at $4.32 ¾.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.