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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 10/13/2025

By On October 13, 2025 - 9:59 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 13

Source: CME Group
               Contract                        Quantity   Next Trade
Commodity      Month      Delivery Day   Assigned Today   Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL   October    Oct 14, 2025               22   Oct 10, 2025
SOYBEAN OIL    October    Oct 14, 2025                8   Oct 02, 2025
WHEAT
General Comments:   Wheat closed lower in quiet trading last week.  Russian crop areas remain too dry in Winter Wheat areas and too wet in Spring Wheat areas, but crop size ideas are expected to increase due to reports of big yields in Spring Wheat growing areas.  Sovecon has raised its production estimates by 600,000 tons to 87.8 million tons due to higher production in Siberia.  Ideas are that production there next year will feature reduced planted area due to the lack of profitability.  A French government report showed plenty of production but lower quality.  Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains and Canada.  It has been warm in the Great Plains so far this Fall.  Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down.  Support is at 496, 493 and 490 December, with resistance at 532, 535, and 543 December.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down.  Support is at 478, 472, and 466 December, with resistance at 501, 507, and 515 December. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
RICE:
General Comments   Rice was lower last week.  The harvest is wrapping up in Texas and southern Louisiana.  Harvest is starting to wrap up in Mississippi and Arkansas.  Yields and quality are mixed, but quality appears better than a year ago.  The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.  Louisiana reports good but not great yields and quality.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down.  Support is at 1064, 1052, and 1040 November and resistance is at 1098, 1126, and 1145 November.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower last week in lifeless trading with the government still closed and USDA reports cancelled for now.  The crop is maturing and the harvest is expanding.  There are ideas that US production might not be super strong due to disease such as rust to offset the demand losses.  Yield reports are showing at or above APH yields in western areas, with vey good crops reported in Minnesota.  Yields have been reported at or less than APH in areas east of the Mississippi River.  Temperatures should average near to below normal this week and there are forecasts for mostly dry conditions.  Most of the western Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high.  Areas east of the Mississippi River have been very dry for the last month or more.  Demand for Corn in world markets remains moderate to strong.  Oats were a little lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 411, 408, and 405 December, and resistance is at 424, 428, and 431 December.  Trends in Oats are down.  Support is at 283, 277, and 271 December, and resistance is at 300, 308, and 311 December.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower as the market heard that China has imposed new restrictions on the export of rare earth metals.  Chinese exporters now must register with the government and register sales.  It is another roadblock in the quest for a trade deal between the US and China.  President Trump said that he now has no plans to talk to President Xi of China about Chinese purchase of US Soybeans, and reports indicate that their meeting of the two leaders at the end of the month will be brief if the meeting happens at all.  China has shown no interest in buying US ag products.  Forecasts call for mostly dry conditions to be seen in the Midwest this and next week.  Temperatures will average at or below normal.  The dry weather could hurt pod fill and bean size and there are indications that the yields are less than expected in eastern areas.  Prices are still higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons.  Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America due to the Trump tariff regime.
Overnight News:
Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up.  Support is at 994, 981, and 970 November, and resistance is at 1030, 1036, and  1042 November.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.  Support is at 271.00, 268.00, and 265.00 December, and resistance is at 282.00, 286.00, and 290.00 December.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 4920, 4890, and 4770 December, with resistance at 5220, 5390, and 5480 December.
DJ China Monthly Soybean Imports a Near-Record — Market Talk
     0949 ET – The amount of soybeans imported by China in September was a record-high for the month, and the second-highest monthly amount ever recorded – and none of it came from the U.S. The country’s preliminary trade data shows that it imported 12.87 million metric tons of soybeans in the month, up from 12.28 MMT last month. The current all-time high is 13.92 MMT in May 2025. Indications of China fulfilling its needs elsewhere could be troubling for U.S. grain traders — although analysts this morning appear relieved about the Trump Administration’s softening on its policy stance against China over the weekend (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments:   Palm Oil futures were higher last week but lower today due in part to the continuing US trade war with China.  Reports of weaker production and strong export demand and the price action in Chicago were positive for futures, but the market has already rallied a lot and needed to see a correction.   Canola was a little higher last week.  Concerns remain about demand potential.  The Canadian government is moving now to support farmers in the face of the Chinese demand loss and also in the face of the Trump tariffs.  Trends are mixed to down on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 596.00, 590.00, and 584.00 November, with resistance at 630.00, 640.00, and 653.00 November.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up.  Support is at 4450, 4390, and 4340 December, with resistance at 4580, 4620, and 4680 December.
DJ Malaysia’s September Palm Oil Exports 1.43M Tons; Up 7.7%, MPOB Says
    Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 7.7% on month at 1.43 million metric tons in September, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the September crop data and revised numbers for August, issued by MPOB:
                           September       August          Change
                                                         On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output      1,841,159    1,854,766   Dn      0.73%
Palm Oil Exports           1,427,577    1,325,672   Up      7.69%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports      117,520      110,363   Up      6.48%
Palm Oil Imports              78,413       58,538   Up     33.95%
Closing Stocks             2,360,976    2,202,413   Up       7.2%
Crude Palm Oil             1,265,832    1,076,380   Up      17.6%
Processed Palm Oil         1,095,144    1,126,033   Dn      2.74%
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 13
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct          1090.00    -15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Nov          1095.00    -15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Dec          1105.00    -12.50      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1107.50    -12.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1090.00    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct           1095.00    -15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Nov           1100.00    -15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Dec           1110.00    -12.50      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1112.50    -12.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1095.00    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct           1077.50    -17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct           1047.50    -12.50      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct            4,450.00   -50.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct            471.00     -01.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.225)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 193,974 lots, or 7.70 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
Nov-25     3,949     3,988     3,945     3,961     3,958     3,968        10   102,373   110,372
Jan-26     3,943     3,988     3,940     3,967     3,958     3,969        11    79,468   149,082
Mar-26     3,956     3,988     3,947     3,966     3,959     3,971        12     6,538    37,369
May-26     3,984     4,020     3,984     4,005     3,998     4,004         6     1,968     8,950
Jul-26     3,988     4,022     3,986     4,007     3,991     4,003        12     3,444    11,470
Sep-26     4,000     4,024     3,989     4,008     3,996     4,008        12       183     1,039
Corn
Turnover: 938,263 lots, or 19.86 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
Nov-25     2,123     2,129     2,089     2,092     2,131     2,107       -24   520,836   552,055
Jan-26     2,123     2,128     2,103     2,106     2,125     2,114       -11   304,187   584,187
Mar-26     2,140     2,142     2,122     2,125     2,139     2,130        -9    57,940   298,526
May-26     2,204     2,206     2,190     2,192     2,202     2,197        -5    37,253   125,006
Jul-26     2,214     2,217     2,205     2,209     2,214     2,211        -3    16,240    58,774
Sep-26     2,228     2,232     2,222     2,226     2,228     2,227        -1     1,807     3,143
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,526,030 lots, or 44.39 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.         Vol        Open
                                                  Settle                                    Interest
Nov-25     2,910     2,939     2,904     2,919     2,897     2,918        21     114,694     281,766
Dec-25     2,928     2,972     2,928     2,953     2,937     2,954        17      12,906     149,185
Jan-26     2,932     2,957     2,922     2,932     2,924     2,936        12   1,110,066   1,930,571
Mar-26     2,900     2,927     2,897     2,910     2,899     2,911        12      61,499     400,394
May-26     2,750     2,770     2,741     2,746     2,755     2,751        -4     193,190   1,011,231
Jul-26     2,732     2,752     2,729     2,733     2,738     2,736        -2      12,824     150,204
Aug-26     2,862     2,874     2,850     2,854     2,863     2,858        -5       4,715      33,980
Sep-26     2,863     2,879     2,840     2,858     2,867     2,861        -6      16,136      61,012
Palm Oil
Turnover: 558,411 lots, or 52.28 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
Oct-25     9,216     9,216     9,214     9,214     9,416     9,214      -202         4       100
Nov-25     9,312     9,334     9,220     9,270     9,382     9,274      -108     6,577    10,680
Dec-25     9,370     9,384     9,260     9,314     9,444     9,326      -118     3,276     5,787
Jan-26     9,438     9,446     9,310     9,364     9,488     9,376      -112   501,265   349,205
Feb-26     9,434     9,434     9,310     9,364     9,472     9,358      -114       195     1,326
Mar-26     9,402     9,402     9,302     9,344     9,436     9,352       -84       123       865
Apr-26     9,338     9,338     9,258     9,298     9,384     9,298       -86        29       346
May-26     9,260     9,270     9,168     9,224     9,294     9,218       -76    45,595   112,101
Jun-26     9,148     9,158     9,086     9,086     9,200     9,120       -80        21       107
Jul-26     9,052     9,052     8,986     8,986     9,090     9,012       -78        13       173
Aug-26     8,970     8,980     8,906     8,922     9,038     8,958       -80        11        55
Sep-26     8,894     8,912     8,820     8,870     8,926     8,866       -60     1,302     1,885
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 364,088 lots, or 3.00 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
Nov-25     8,290     8,338     8,242     8,276     8,326     8,284       -42     5,379    11,317
Dec-25     8,322     8,366     8,274     8,300     8,370     8,322       -48       785     8,119
Jan-26     8,282     8,330     8,236     8,268     8,324     8,282       -42   302,787   490,481
Mar-26     8,248     8,262     8,194     8,210     8,266     8,214       -52       103     1,584
May-26     8,032     8,082     7,990     8,032     8,068     8,030       -38    54,176   230,084
Jul-26     7,996     8,020     7,940     7,970     8,014     7,974       -40       148       664
Aug-26     7,986     7,986     7,946     7,964     8,024     7,968       -56        15        76
Sep-26     7,948     7,986     7,908     7,948     7,988     7,940       -48       695     1,459
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 28
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr          1135.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1092.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep  1012.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec  1002.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1007.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1140.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1097.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1017.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec   1007.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1012.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1112.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1070.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            4,830.00   +70.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            494.00     +07.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.4363)
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