Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with US Trade Balance at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., Fed Bostic Speech at 9:00 A.M., Fed Bowman Speech at 9:05 A.M., RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index at 9:10 A.M., Fed Miran Speech at 9:30 A.M., Consumer Inflation Expectations at 10:00 A.M., Fed Kashkari Speech at 10:30 A.M., EIA Short Term Energy Outlook at 11:00 A.M., 3-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Consumer Credit at 2:00 P.M., Fed Miran Speech at 3:05 P.M., API Energy Stocks, LIMI Logistics Managers Index, Balance of Trade, Exports, Imports, and Used Car Sales MoM & YoY at 3:30 P.M.
CBOT grain futures are mixed with traders awaiting an announcement of US financial aid for US row crop farmers harmed by China’s avoidance of US soybeans. The aid announcement could come today. The US farm aid package is rumored to be between $10-$15 billion, with potential for another financial assistance package in early 2026. The US government is planning that China’s soy avoidance persists. This week US farm aid announcement starts a process of congressional approval for funding when the government reopens. The CCC, or use of Section 32 requires a congressional vote to move tariff from the US Treasury to either placeholder to deliver “Trump Bucks” to US farmers. Although the USDA will not be releasing its October Crop report., several news organizations have conducted surveys of private analysts to arrive at an average US corn 2025/26 corn end stocks are forecast at 2,231 Mil Bu of corn, 875 Mil Bu of wheat, and 299 Mil Bu of soybeans. However, when asked where the final US 2025/26 grain end stocks will be, the average trade estimate rises to 2,666 Mil Bu of corn, 891 Mil Bu of wheat, and 352 Mil Bu of soybeans. The private US soybean stocks estimate reflects considerable hope that US President Trump will reach a US/China trade deal. During the hiatus of USDA reports we will highlight big picture ag market themes, which continue to center on the need for supply dislocation to alter prevailing price trends. Drought in N Brazil is rare. The abundance of moisture in Argentina – 4-12” since Aug 1st – is historically correlated with absence of drought into Nov/Dec. Combined global crop yield in 2025/26 will be a new record 4.2 MT^/HA without South American adversity. The strategy remains to position for long term neutral trends by selling recoveries/forward carries. A bearish lean is held into mid-autumn amid record physical US corn supplies, record exporter wheat production & as the burden of clearing soy inventories becomes arduous if China stays absent.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or opoen a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
USDA’s October Grain Estimates Suspended by Government Shutdown. The Corn & Ethanol Report 10/07/2025
We kickoff the day with US Trade Balance at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., Fed Bostic Speech at 9:00 A.M., Fed Bowman Speech at 9:05 A.M., RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index at 9:10 A.M., Fed Miran Speech at 9:30 A.M., Consumer Inflation Expectations at 10:00 A.M., Fed Kashkari Speech at 10:30 A.M., EIA Short Term Energy Outlook at 11:00 A.M., 3-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Consumer Credit at 2:00 P.M., Fed Miran Speech at 3:05 P.M., API Energy Stocks, LIMI Logistics Managers Index, Balance of Trade, Exports, Imports, and Used Car Sales MoM & YoY at 3:30 P.M.
CBOT grain futures are mixed with traders awaiting an announcement of US financial aid for US row crop farmers harmed by China’s avoidance of US soybeans. The aid announcement could come today. The US farm aid package is rumored to be between $10-$15 billion, with potential for another financial assistance package in early 2026. The US government is planning that China’s soy avoidance persists. This week US farm aid announcement starts a process of congressional approval for funding when the government reopens. The CCC, or use of Section 32 requires a congressional vote to move tariff from the US Treasury to either placeholder to deliver “Trump Bucks” to US farmers. Although the USDA will not be releasing its October Crop report., several news organizations have conducted surveys of private analysts to arrive at an average US corn 2025/26 corn end stocks are forecast at 2,231 Mil Bu of corn, 875 Mil Bu of wheat, and 299 Mil Bu of soybeans. However, when asked where the final US 2025/26 grain end stocks will be, the average trade estimate rises to 2,666 Mil Bu of corn, 891 Mil Bu of wheat, and 352 Mil Bu of soybeans. The private US soybean stocks estimate reflects considerable hope that US President Trump will reach a US/China trade deal. During the hiatus of USDA reports we will highlight big picture ag market themes, which continue to center on the need for supply dislocation to alter prevailing price trends. Drought in N Brazil is rare. The abundance of moisture in Argentina – 4-12” since Aug 1st – is historically correlated with absence of drought into Nov/Dec. Combined global crop yield in 2025/26 will be a new record 4.2 MT^/HA without South American adversity. The strategy remains to position for long term neutral trends by selling recoveries/forward carries. A bearish lean is held into mid-autumn amid record physical US corn supplies, record exporter wheat production & as the burden of clearing soy inventories becomes arduous if China stays absent.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or opoen a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374