Weekly Ag Markets Update – 10/06/2025

Wheat:  Wheat closed a little lower last week.  Increased US production and supplies were seen in the USDA reports released last Monday.   Reports of stronger Russian prices continue.  Russian sources told wire services that producers there are set to reduce offers and production due to low prices and problems with the government.  This now seems to be happening.  Sovecon reduced its export estimate for Russia for the first time after increasing it in previous reports.  It remains too dry in Winter Wheat areas and too wet in Spring Wheat areas of Russia, but crop size ideas are expected to increase due to reports of big yields in Spring Wheat growing areas.  A French government report showed plenty of production but lower quality.  Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains and Canada, but western areas have been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year.  It was hot again in the Great plains last weekend.  Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good and Australia estimates that production this year will be high and potentially a record.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

Unavailable today

 

Corn:  Corn was a little lower last week, with selling seen on Friday before what could be a big harvest weekend.  It looks like a short term short covering rally was under way during the second half of the week but it ran out of steam on Friday.  USDA discovered larger than expected September stocks on Tuesday and as the coming harvest has outweighed strong demand ideas until now.  The crop is maturing and the harvest is expanding.  There are ideas that US production might not be super strong due to disease such as rust to offset the demand losses.  Temperatures should average near to below normal this week and there are forecasts for scattered showers.  Most of the western Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high.  Areas east of the Mississippi River have been very dry for the last month or more.  Demand for Corn in world markets remains moderate to strong.  Oats were lower.

Weekly Corn Futures

 Weekly Oats Futures

 

Soybeans and Soybean Meal:  Soybeans and the products were higher last week, but lower on Friday on some pre harvest selling on Friday and ideas of weak demand against strong production.  The USDA stocks report released on Tuesday was a little bullish and was part of the reason for the rally.  Also, the market appeared to be a little oversold.  President Trump said that he plans to talk to President Xi of China about Chinese purchase of US Soybeans.  There are still no indications that China was changing its trade policies and shown no interest in buying US ag products.  Forecasts call for no rain to be seen in the Midwest this week.  Cool and dry weather has been seen recently in the Midwest.  The dry weather could hurt pod fill and bean size.  Argentina has removed taxes on Soybeans exports and China immediately bought up to 40 cargoes.  China has not bought US Soybeans yet and traders are worried that demand for the new crop will be a lot less this year. Good growing conditions continue in the Midwest with cool and mostly dry weather in the forecast.  Prices are still higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons.  Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America due to the Trump tariff regime.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

 

Rice:  Rice was lower and closed at new lows for the move last week.  The harvest is wrapping up in Texas and southern Louisiana.  Harvest is starting to wrap up in Mississippi and Arkansas.  Yields and quality are mixed, but quality appears better than a year ago.  The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.  Louisiana reports good but not great yields and quality.  Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

 

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils:  Palm Oil futures were lower Friday on profit taking before the weekend, but futures were a little higher for the week.  Reports of weaker production and strong export demand and on the price action in Chicago were positive for futures.   Canola was higher.  Concerns remain about demand potential.  The Canadian government is moving now to support farmers in the face of the Chinese demand loss and also in the face of the Trump tariffs.  Trends are mixed to down on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.

 

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

 

Cotton:  Cotton was higher Friday on a lower US Dollar and higher for the week.  The US government has continued to be shut down and the weekly export sales report was not released.  There are no more USDA reports coming due to the closure.  The US harvest has started in most areas.  There are still ideas that growing conditions are generally good.  There are still reports of good weather in Texas and into the southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around.  Bolls are opening and there is mostly no rain except for in the coastal Southeast.  The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

 

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus:  Futures were higher again Friday in trading as a US government shutdown continues.  Futures were lower for the week.  Trends are still down on the charts.  The weather is considered good for production here and in Brazil and Mexico.  Development conditions are good in Florida and in Brazil now with daily rounds of showers in Florida and dry weather in Brazil.  The poor production potential for the crops comes from early dry weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida and closed near the lows of the week producers to lose trees.  Brazil production potential got hurt by cold and dry weather seen earlier in the year.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

 

Coffee:  New York and London were higher as the market waits for news of a Trump=Lula meeting.  Ideas are that it could happen at the ASEAN summit in late October.  Reports indicated that the weather in Brazil has improved and a meeting between Lula of Brazil and Trump of the US is expected soon.  Dry conditions have been reported in Coffee production areas lately and rains are expected to return over the next few weeks.  There are still reduced deliverable supplies for both exchanges as commercials have taken the supplies instead of buying in cash markets.  The lack of deliverable stocks in both markets and the lack of deliveries has supported the futures market.  Reductions in deliverable stocks are starting to abate.  Vietnam has seen mostly good growing conditions but too much rain from some tropical systems has been reported in some areas.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

 

Sugar:  New York was higher last week but London closed a little lower.  Trends are still sideways in New York and in London, but trends in New York are turning up.  Ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue.  The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions.  Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong.  Sugar production in the center-south region rose 15.72% in the first half of September compared to last year.   The outlook for cane crops in India and Thailand are in good condition with reports of good rains this year, while Brazilian cane continue to favor producing sugar over ethanol.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

 

Cocoa:  Both markets closed lower and trends are down on the charts as demand concerns in West Africa continue.  Both markets made new contract lows last week.  Bigger supplies are expected at West Africa ports soon as Ivory Coast has raised the farmgate price paid to farmers and they are expected to sell.  Ghana has also raised farmgate prices.  US demand has been weakening due to the increased prices inside the US from the Trump tariffs and world demand is thought to be weaker due to higher prices.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market feels that there is less demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana and the lack of demand is expected to continue.  Ecuador is expected to become the second largest producer of Cocoa, replacing Ghana on the list.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

 

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