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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Softs Report 10/06/2025

By On October 6, 2025 - 9:26 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
COTTON
General Comments:   Cotton was higher Friday on a lower US Dollar and higher for the week.  The US government has continued to be shut down and the weekly export sales report was not released.  There are no more USDA reports coming due to the closure.  The US harvest has started in most areas.  There are still ideas that growing conditions are generally good.  There are still reports of good weather in Texas and into the southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around.  Bolls are opening and there is mostly no rain except for in the coastal Southeast.  The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News:  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 70 contracts.
Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 64.30, 63.00, and 61.80 December, with resistance of 66.10, 66.60 and 67.00 December.
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were higher again Friday in trading as a US government shutdown continues.  Futures were lower for the week.  Trends are still down on the charts.  The weather is considered good for production here and in Brazil and Mexico.  Development conditions are good in Florida and in Brazil now with daily rounds of showers in Florida and dry weather in Brazil.  The poor production potential for the crops comes from early dry weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida and closed near the lows of the week producers to lose trees.  Brazil production potential got hurt by cold and dry weather seen earlier in the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down.  Support is at 224.00, 218.00, and 212.00 November, with resistance at 242.00, 249.00, and 255.00 November.
COFFEE
General Comments:  New York and London were higher as the market waits for news of a Trump=Lula meeting.  Ideas are that it could happen at the ASEAN summit in late October.  Reports indicated that the weather in Brazil has improved and a meeting between Lula of Brazil and Trump of the US is expected soon.  Dry conditions have been reported in Coffee production areas lately and rains are expected to return over the next few weeks.  There are still reduced deliverable supplies for both exchanges as commercials have taken the supplies instead of buying in cash markets.  The lack of deliverable stocks in both markets and the lack of deliveries has supported the futures market.  Reductions in deliverable stocks are starting to abate.  Vietnam has seen mostly good growing conditions but too much rain from some tropical systems has been reported in some areas.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 329.77 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up.  Support is at 368.00, 356.00, and 351.00 December, and resistance is at 393.00, 408.00 and 424.00 December.  Trends in London are mixed to up.  Support is at 4150, 4040, and 3910 November, with resistance at 4690, 4860, and 4980 November.
SUGAR
General Comments:  New York was higher last week but London closed a little lower.  Trends are still sideways in New York and in London, but trends in New York are turning up.  Ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue.  The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions.  Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong.  Sugar production in the center-south region rose 15.72% in the first half of September compared to last year.   The outlook for cane crops in India and Thailand are in good condition with reports of good rains this year, while Brazilian cane continue to favor producing sugar over ethanol.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1580, 1550, and 1520 March and resistance is at 1660, 1680, and 1700 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 450.00, 439.00, and 433.00 December, with resistance at 466.00, 470.00, and 477.00 December.
COCOA
General Comments:  Both markets closed lower and trends are down on the charts as demand concerns in West Africa continue.  Both markets made new contract lows last week.  Bigger supplies are expected at West Africa ports soon as Ivory Coast has raised the farmgate price paid to farmers and they are expected to sell.  Ghana has also raised farmgate prices.  US demand has been weakening due to the increased prices inside the US from the Trump tariffs and world demand is thought to be weaker due to higher prices.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market feels that there is less demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana and the lack of demand is expected to continue.  Ecuador is expected to become the second largest producer of Cocoa, replacing Ghana on the list.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down.  Support is at 6060, 5940, and 5820 December, with resistance at 6870, 7140, and 7380 December.  Trends in London are mixed to down.  Support is at 4160, 4040, and 5920 December, with resistance at 4690, 4830, and 4970 December.
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