Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.
The Fed made the first interest rate cut to the Fed Funds target in nearly a year at the September meeting, lowering it to 4.25%. In 2024, the Fed made two cuts, the first was ahead of the US election, in September, when the rate was slashed by 50 basis points to 5.0%, and 2nd in November, lowering another 25 points to 4.75%. The September rate was the lowest since November 2022, when the Fed was still raising rates to slow inflation. But as has been the case for years, the Fed following the market. The market signaled that the Fed should begin raising rates months ahead of its initial increases and has been suggesting for the last 2 years that rates should be lowered. The 20 and 30-year bonds are the only treasuries above the Fed Funds Rate, but by less than 0.5% versus 2021, when there was as much as a 2% difference.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
US Forecast Drier in Eastern Midwest; Risk of Low River Levels Emerges:
The EU, GFS, and AI models have reduced the intensity of rain projected in IL, IN, and OH this week, with soaking precipitation to be confined to eastern KS, NE, IA, and the Upper Great Lakes Region. Scattered totals in the E Midwest and mid-South will be welcomed, but more is needed to ease drought before winter. River forecasts feature levels at or below normal thresholds from St. Louis to Louisiana beginning October 17th. Soaking rain is demanded to raise river flow. Yet, harvest moves smoothly on a national basis into the second half of the month. Modest disruptions occur in IA, N IL, WI, and MI, but acceleration of fieldwork occurs in NE, the Dakotas, and MN. ARC also notes combines will be active this weekend as warmth/dryness blankets the entire Central US. Soybeans are coming off quickly.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Corn Corrects; US Cash Supply To Best Year-Ago Levels Next Week; Global Grain Cash Markets Stagnate:
Dec corn closed lower and was bound to major moving averages. ARC maintains a strategy of selling $4.24+, Dec CBOT, amid the coming onslaught of physical supplies in the US and across the Northern Hemisphere. Total supplies currently are estimated unchanged from last year (lower carry-in year-over-year and slower harvest), but physical supplies begin to dwarf disappearance rates by mid-October. Also noted, sorghum basis in W Kansas has scored new multi-year lows at $1.31/Bu vs. Dec Chicago corn. Brazilian cash prices are unchanged from last year and have struggled to rally since mid-September. The world is awash in feed grains. The cash markets are doing all of the chore og building demand with traders bumping corn higher in recent days on the hope of a China trade deal. ARC does not for see a 2020 type of Phase One deal with China wanting to be able to select where it imports grains/soybeans. ARC sees Dec corn caught in a range of $3.90-$4.25 for the next 30 days. Lower prices hinge on favorable South American weather through December that allows winter corn seedings to be timely.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Feed Supply Growth Dwarfs Demand Trends. The Corn & Ethanol Report 10/06/2025
We kickoff the day with Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.
The Fed made the first interest rate cut to the Fed Funds target in nearly a year at the September meeting, lowering it to 4.25%. In 2024, the Fed made two cuts, the first was ahead of the US election, in September, when the rate was slashed by 50 basis points to 5.0%, and 2nd in November, lowering another 25 points to 4.75%. The September rate was the lowest since November 2022, when the Fed was still raising rates to slow inflation. But as has been the case for years, the Fed following the market. The market signaled that the Fed should begin raising rates months ahead of its initial increases and has been suggesting for the last 2 years that rates should be lowered. The 20 and 30-year bonds are the only treasuries above the Fed Funds Rate, but by less than 0.5% versus 2021, when there was as much as a 2% difference.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
US Forecast Drier in Eastern Midwest; Risk of Low River Levels Emerges:
The EU, GFS, and AI models have reduced the intensity of rain projected in IL, IN, and OH this week, with soaking precipitation to be confined to eastern KS, NE, IA, and the Upper Great Lakes Region. Scattered totals in the E Midwest and mid-South will be welcomed, but more is needed to ease drought before winter. River forecasts feature levels at or below normal thresholds from St. Louis to Louisiana beginning October 17th. Soaking rain is demanded to raise river flow. Yet, harvest moves smoothly on a national basis into the second half of the month. Modest disruptions occur in IA, N IL, WI, and MI, but acceleration of fieldwork occurs in NE, the Dakotas, and MN. ARC also notes combines will be active this weekend as warmth/dryness blankets the entire Central US. Soybeans are coming off quickly.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Corn Corrects; US Cash Supply To Best Year-Ago Levels Next Week; Global Grain Cash Markets Stagnate:
Dec corn closed lower and was bound to major moving averages. ARC maintains a strategy of selling $4.24+, Dec CBOT, amid the coming onslaught of physical supplies in the US and across the Northern Hemisphere. Total supplies currently are estimated unchanged from last year (lower carry-in year-over-year and slower harvest), but physical supplies begin to dwarf disappearance rates by mid-October. Also noted, sorghum basis in W Kansas has scored new multi-year lows at $1.31/Bu vs. Dec Chicago corn. Brazilian cash prices are unchanged from last year and have struggled to rally since mid-September. The world is awash in feed grains. The cash markets are doing all of the chore og building demand with traders bumping corn higher in recent days on the hope of a China trade deal. ARC does not for see a 2020 type of Phase One deal with China wanting to be able to select where it imports grains/soybeans. ARC sees Dec corn caught in a range of $3.90-$4.25 for the next 30 days. Lower prices hinge on favorable South American weather through December that allows winter corn seedings to be timely.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374