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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 10/03/2025

By On October 3, 2025 - 9:36 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 3
Source: CME Group
               Contract                        Quantity   Next Trade
Commodity      Month      Delivery Day   Assigned Today   Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL   October    Oct 06, 2025              244   Oct 01, 2025
SOYBEAN OIL    October    Oct 06, 2025              276   Oct 02, 2025
WHEAT
General Comments:   Wheat closed higher again yesterday on the rallies in Corn and Soybean.  Increased US production and supplies were seen in the USDA reports released on Monday.   Reports of stronger Russian prices continue.  Russian sources told wire services that producers there are set to reduce offers and production due to low prices and problems with the government.  This now seems to be happening.  Sovecon reduced its export estimate for Russia for the first time after increasing it in previous reports.  It remains too dry in Winter Wheat areas and too wet in Spring Wheat areas of Russia, but crop size ideas are expected to increase due to reports of big yields in Spring Wheat growing areas.  A French government report showed plenty of production but lower quality.  Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains and Canada, but western areas have been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year.  Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good and Australia estimates that production this year will be high and potentially a record.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down.  Support is at 502, 499 and 493 December, with resistance at 532, 535, and 543 December.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down.  Support is at 484, 478, and 472 December, with resistance at 498, 507, and 515 December. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
RICE:
General Comments   Rice was lower and closed at new lows for the move again yesterday.  Trends are down.  The harvest is wrapping up in Texas and southern Louisiana.  Harvest is starting to wrap up in Mississippi and Arkansas.  Yields and quality are mixed, but quality appears better than a year ago.  The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.  Louisiana reports good but not great yields and quality.  Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down.  Support is at 1088, 1076, and 1064 November and resistance is at 1126, 1145, and 1159 November.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher again yesterday on follow through buying.  It looks like a short term short covering rally is under way.  USDA discovered larger than expected September stocks on Tuesday and as the coming harvest has outweighed strong demand ideas until now.  Trends are mixed as the crop is maturing and the harvest is expanding.  There are ideas that US production might not be super strong due to disease such as rust to offset the demand losses.  Temperatures should average near to below normal this week and there are forecasts for scattered showers.  Most of the western Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high.  Areas east of the Mississippi River have been very dry for the last month or more.  Demand for Corn in world markets remains moderate to strong.  Oats were lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed to down.  Support is at 411, 408, and 405 December, and resistance is at 423, 428, and 431 December.  Trends in Oats are down.  Support is at 295, 289, and 283 December, and resistance is at 308, 311, and 316 December.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher again yesterday on what appeared to be short covering and despite ideas of weak demand against strong production.  The USDA stocks report released on Tuesday was a little bullish and was part of the reason for the rally.  Also, the market appeared to be a little oversold.  President Trump said that he plans to talk to President Xi of China about Chinese purchase of US Soybeans.  There are still no indications that China was changing its trade policies and shown no interest in buying US ag products.  Forecasts call for no rain to be seen in the Midwest this week.  Cool and dry weather has been seen recently in the Midwest.  The dry weather could hurt pod fill and bean size.  Argentina has removed taxes on Soybeans exports and China immediately bought up to 40 cargoes.  China has not bought US Soybeans yet and traders are worried that demand for the new crop will be a lot less this year. Good growing conditions continue in the Midwest with cool and mostly dry weather in the forecast.  Prices are still higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons.  Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America due to the Trump tariff regime.
Overnight News:
Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up.  Support is at 994, 981, and 970 November, and resistance is at 1029, 1036, and  1042 November.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.  Support is at 271.00, 268.00, and 265.00 December, and resistance is at 282.00, 286.00, and 290.00 December.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 4920, 4890, and 4770 December, with resistance at 5110, 5220, and 5390 December.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments:   Palm Oil futures were lower today on profit taking before the weekend.  Reports of weaker production and strong export demand and on the price action in Chicago were positive for futures.   Canola was higher.  Concerns remain about demand potential.  The Canadian government is moving now to support farmers in the face of the Chinese demand loss and also in the face of the Trump tariffs.  Trends are mixed to down on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down.  Support is at 596.00, 590.00, and 584.00 November, with resistance at 630.00, 640.00, and 653.00 November.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down.  Support is at 4320, 4200, and 4160 December, with resistance at 4480, 4530, and 4580 December.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 3
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct          1082.50    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Nov          1087.50    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Dec          1095.00    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1097.50    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1077.50    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct           1087.50    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Nov           1092.50    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Dec           1100.00    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1102.50    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1082.50    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct           1075.00    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct           1040.00    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct            4,420.00   -10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct            460.00     -03.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.206)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 28
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr          1135.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1092.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep  1012.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec  1002.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1007.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1140.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1097.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1017.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec   1007.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1012.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1112.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1070.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            4,830.00   +70.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            494.00     +07.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.4363)
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