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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 10/01/2025

By On October 1, 2025 - 10:47 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Wheat Production
  The following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
2025 U.S.  Wheat Production (million bushels)
                Actual   Average
                  USDA   Forecast      Range      USDA August
All Wheat        1,985   1,925     1,898-1,970      1,927
Winter Wheat     1,402   1,343     1,245-1,375      1,355
Hard Red Winter    804     768       758-781          769
Soft Red Winter    353     349       335-475          339
White Winter       244     256       235-368          247
Other Spring       497     484       470-506          484
Durum               86      85        79-89            87
DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks
  The following are key numbers from the USDA’s Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles and how the government’s estimates compared with analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Stockpiles on Sept. 1, 2025 (million bushels)
            Monday’s     Average                   USDA
            Estimate     Forecast     Range      June 2025
Corn          1,532        1,336   1,260-1,450     4,643
Soybeans        316          322     295-347       1,008
Wheat         2,120        2,041   1,954-2,090       851
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 1
Source: CME Group
               Contract                        Quantity   Next Trade
Commodity      Month      Delivery Day   Assigned Today   Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL   October    Oct 02, 2025              207   Sep 25, 2025
SOYBEAN OIL    October    Oct 02, 2025              425   Sep 30, 2025
WHEAT
General Comments:   Wheat closed lower yesterday on the increased US and large world exporter supplies even as reports of stronger Russian prices continue.  Russian sources told wire services that producers there are set to reduce offers and production due to low prices and problems with the government.  This now seems to be happening.  Sovecon reduced its export estimate for Russia for the first time after increasing it in previous reports.  It remains too dry in Winter Wheat areas and too wet in Spring Wheat areas of Russia, but crop size ideas are expected to increase due to reports of big yields in Spring Wheat growing areas.  A French government report showed plenty of production but lower quality.  Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains and Canada, but western areas have been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year.  Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good and Australia estimates that production this year will be high and potentially a record.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 505, 499 and 493 December, with resistance at 532, 535, and 543 December.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 496, 490, and 484 December, with resistance at 520, 523, and 529 December. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
RICE:
General Comments   Rice was lower and closed at new lows for the move.  The market remained in a trading range.  The harvest is wrapping up in Texas and southern Louisiana.  Harvest is active in Mississippi and Arkansas.  Yields and quality are mixed, but quality appears better than a year ago.  Chart trends are mixed on the charts.  The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.  Louisiana reports good but not great yields and quality.  Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1112, 1100, and 1088 November and resistance is at 1168, 1181, and 1201 November.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower yesterday after USDA discovered larger than expected September stocks and as the coming harvest outweighed strong demand ideas.  Trends are mixed as the crop is maturing and the harvest is starting to expand.  There are ideas that US production might not be super strong due to disease such as rust to offset the demand losses.  Temperatures should average near to below normal this week and there are forecasts for scattered showers.  Most of the western Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high.  Areas east of the Mississippi River have been very dry for the last month or more.  Demand for Corn in world markets remains moderate to strong.  Oats were a little lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed to down.  Support is at 414, 411, and 408 December, and resistance is at 431, 434, and 442 December.  Trends in Oats are down.  Support is at 301, 295, and 289 December, and resistance is at 316, 320, and 324 December.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday in anticipation of a US government shutdown and on ideas of weak demand against strong production.  The USDA stocks report was a little bullish but the Soy data was overshadowed by the bigger grains estimates.  There are still no indications that China was changing its trade policies.  Forecasts call for no rain to be seen in the Midwest this week.  Cool and dry weather has been seen recently in the Midwest.  The dry weather could hurt pod fill and bean size.  Argentina has removed taxes on Soybeans exports and China immediately bought up to 40 cargoes.  China has not bought US Soybeans yet and traders are worried that demand for the new crop will be a lot less this year. Good growing conditions continue in the Midwest with cool and mostly dry weather in the forecast.  Prices are still higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons.  Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America due to the Trump tariff regime.
Overnight News:
Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are down.  Support is at 995, 981, and 970 November, and resistance is at 1024, 1029, and  1036 November.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down.  Support is at 263.00, 260.00, and 257.00 October, and resistance is at 272.00, 277.00, and 279.00 October.  Trends in Soybean Oil are down.  Support is at 4840, 4740, and 4680 October, with resistance at 5070, 5110, and 5170 October.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments:   Palm Oil futures were higher today on reports of weaker production and strong export demand.   Amspec showed increased exports for the month, but trader are looking at a stronger Ringgit and wondering if the demand can last.  Canola was closed for a holiday.  Concerns remain about demand potential.  The Canadian government is moving now to support farmers in the face of the Chinese demand loss and also in the face of the Trump tariffs.  Trends are mixed to down on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down.  Support is at 602.00, 596.00, and 590.00 November, with resistance at 630.00, 640.00, and 653.00 November.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down.  Support is at 4320, 4200, and 4160 December, with resistance at 4480, 4530, and 4580 December.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 1
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct           1075.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Nov           1080.00    +10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Dec           1082.50    +07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1087.50    +07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1075.00    +05.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct           1080.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Nov           1085.00    +10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Dec           1087.50    +07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1092.50    +07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1080.00    +05.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct           1060.00    +07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct           1035.00    +07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct           4,390.00   +50.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct           463.00     -05.00        Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.205)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 28
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr          1135.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1092.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep  1012.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec  1002.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1007.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1140.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1097.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1017.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec   1007.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1012.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1112.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1070.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            4,830.00   +70.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            494.00     +07.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.4363)
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