Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Fed Jefferson Speech at 5:00 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., S&P/Case Shiller Home Price MoM & YoY and Home Price Index MoM & YoY at 8:00 A.M., Chicago PMI at 8:45 A.M., CB Consumer Confidence, JOLT’s Job Openings, and JOLT’s Job Quits at 9:00 A.M., Dallas Fed Services Index and Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index at 9:30 A.M., 52-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary at 11:00 A.M., Fed Goolsbee Speech at 12:30 P.M., API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M., and Fed Logan Speech at 6:10 P.M.
The National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales in August rose 4% from July and were 4% higher than a year ago. The Pending Home Sales Index was 74.7 was the highest since March and the 2nd highest in 2025. The increase was broad-based, with contract signings climbing in the Midwest, South, and West, and moderately lower in the Northeast. However, the index remains historically low, and just 6% above the record low that was set in January of this year. The uptick in pending home sales was attributed mainlt to the decline in mortgage rates, and suggests that activity in the real estate market will pick up if rates continue to decline.
US Weather Pattern Update
Chance of Rain Offered to Midwest/Great Lakes After Oct 6th:
The principal forecasting models agree that lite/moderate rainfall returns to the Central US after the next 6-7 days, but meaningful disruptions to harvest progress are not anticipated. The EU, GFS, and AI models favor KS, IA, MN, WI, and parts of IL with rainfall of 1-2” Oct 6-13. Dry and abnormally warm conditions persist into the early part of next week. Temps in the 70’s & 80’s will be common Tues-Sun before cooler air emerges. Late season dryness has of course been unwelcomed across the E Midwest and mid-South, but the extension of this pattern will allow harvest to progress smoothly & rapidly. ARC also notes there are not yet threats to river logistics. Mississippi River projections at both St. Louis and Memphis keep levels above low thresholds for another 10 days. River levels stay adequate north of AR/TN into the middle of Oct.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Global Corn Market Ends Flat; US Bushels Harvested Matches Last Year; Bearish Stocks Surprise Today?:
World corn markets did little ahead of uncertain US Stocks data (Jun-Aug residual disappearance) and as Mexico continues large purchases of US corn to feed feeder cattle stuck across the border. Other breaking news was absent, but ARC maintains a strategy of using ant re-test of $4.30-$4.33 basis Dec, to catch up on hedges. The sheer weight of physical supplies act as an anchor on cash markets into the very end of autumn. The US harvest on Sunday was 18% complete vs. 21% a year ago. Harvest will stay at/behind average levels as harvested area is the largest since 1932 at 90.5-91.0 Mil Acres. An estimated 3.0 Bil Bu has been gathered to date, vs. 3.1 Bil a year ago in late Sep, but beginning next week cash supplies will begin to surpass year ago levels – and by an increasingly wide margin. How basis levels react to this influx of supply is key. ARC views upside as severely limited at $4.30, Dec, and $4.50, March ’26, without extreme weather adversity in South America. There is no reason to ration feed supplies globally.
Brazilian Ethanol Demand & Corn Exports
Brazil’s recent explosion in corn-based ethanol production capacity is absorbing large production (record production in2025) – but not all of it. ARC’s research in Brazil suggests domestic demand growth will persist, but also that Brazilian corn exports of 42-46 MMT’s must be expected in both 24/25 and 25/26 crop years. Additionally, further ethanol production capacity growth will on the margin slow, and cheap sugarcane prices linger in the back round. A switching from corn to sugarcane occurs at southern/central Brazilian ethanol plants if Brazilian cash corn prices rally by more than 8-10% from current quotes of $3.75/Bu. ARC pegs Brazil’s industrial corn use in 24/25 at 29.5 MMT’s in 12 months ending Feb 28, 2025. The Brazilian corn market very probably bottomed in July – as it typically does – and has moved slowly but steady higher since. Renewed weakness in interior Brazilian cash prices is not anticipated intil March/April 26. Also of note is that cash ethanol prices in Brazil have been stubbornly high despite record production. Cash ethanol in Sao Paulo this week is quoted at $2.20Gal, down from $2.30 a week ago but compared to cash prices of $1.80-$1.90/Gal in KS, IA, IN, and IL. There remains incentive to maximize Brazilian ethanol production capacity. This lends support to corn markets there and leaves the exporter having to compete with domestic end users for supply. Growth in Brazilian ethanol production & consumption has been partially responsible for the US expanding its share of world corn trade since autumn 2024. However, there will be enlarged competition for market share moving forward. Ukraines exportable corn surplus will be up 4-5 MMT’s (155-200 Mil Bu) year-over-year.
Argentina still has some 12-14 MMJT’s left to ship from now till April. And Brazilian exports in crop year 24/25 are projected at 44 MMT’s vs. USDA’s 43 and up 6 MMT’s (235 MMT’s) on the previous year. ARC estimates Braziian corn production in 2025 at 139 MMT’s, vs. USDA’s 135 and which aligned with CONAB’s latest forecast. ARC also estimates that Brazilian corn exports Oct-Feb will total 24.6 MMT’s vs. 20.5 the previous year and is not expected to exhaust surplus until early 2026. Assuming safrinha acreage expansion of 600,000 hectares and trend yield, Brazilian corn production 2026 will total 133 MMT’s. Exports will be 43 MMT’s despite additional projected growth in ethanol consumption. It’s just not the same marketplace as autumn/winter 2024, when trade flows were disrupted by a smaller Brazilian crop and major drought in E Europe, Ukraine, and Russia.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Lack of Urgency Ahead of Grain Stocks & Small Grains Summary. The Corn & Ethanol Report 09/30/2025
We kickoff the day with Fed Jefferson Speech at 5:00 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., S&P/Case Shiller Home Price MoM & YoY and Home Price Index MoM & YoY at 8:00 A.M., Chicago PMI at 8:45 A.M., CB Consumer Confidence, JOLT’s Job Openings, and JOLT’s Job Quits at 9:00 A.M., Dallas Fed Services Index and Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index at 9:30 A.M., 52-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary at 11:00 A.M., Fed Goolsbee Speech at 12:30 P.M., API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M., and Fed Logan Speech at 6:10 P.M.
The National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales in August rose 4% from July and were 4% higher than a year ago. The Pending Home Sales Index was 74.7 was the highest since March and the 2nd highest in 2025. The increase was broad-based, with contract signings climbing in the Midwest, South, and West, and moderately lower in the Northeast. However, the index remains historically low, and just 6% above the record low that was set in January of this year. The uptick in pending home sales was attributed mainlt to the decline in mortgage rates, and suggests that activity in the real estate market will pick up if rates continue to decline.
US Weather Pattern Update
Chance of Rain Offered to Midwest/Great Lakes After Oct 6th:
The principal forecasting models agree that lite/moderate rainfall returns to the Central US after the next 6-7 days, but meaningful disruptions to harvest progress are not anticipated. The EU, GFS, and AI models favor KS, IA, MN, WI, and parts of IL with rainfall of 1-2” Oct 6-13. Dry and abnormally warm conditions persist into the early part of next week. Temps in the 70’s & 80’s will be common Tues-Sun before cooler air emerges. Late season dryness has of course been unwelcomed across the E Midwest and mid-South, but the extension of this pattern will allow harvest to progress smoothly & rapidly. ARC also notes there are not yet threats to river logistics. Mississippi River projections at both St. Louis and Memphis keep levels above low thresholds for another 10 days. River levels stay adequate north of AR/TN into the middle of Oct.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Global Corn Market Ends Flat; US Bushels Harvested Matches Last Year; Bearish Stocks Surprise Today?:
World corn markets did little ahead of uncertain US Stocks data (Jun-Aug residual disappearance) and as Mexico continues large purchases of US corn to feed feeder cattle stuck across the border. Other breaking news was absent, but ARC maintains a strategy of using ant re-test of $4.30-$4.33 basis Dec, to catch up on hedges. The sheer weight of physical supplies act as an anchor on cash markets into the very end of autumn. The US harvest on Sunday was 18% complete vs. 21% a year ago. Harvest will stay at/behind average levels as harvested area is the largest since 1932 at 90.5-91.0 Mil Acres. An estimated 3.0 Bil Bu has been gathered to date, vs. 3.1 Bil a year ago in late Sep, but beginning next week cash supplies will begin to surpass year ago levels – and by an increasingly wide margin. How basis levels react to this influx of supply is key. ARC views upside as severely limited at $4.30, Dec, and $4.50, March ’26, without extreme weather adversity in South America. There is no reason to ration feed supplies globally.
Brazilian Ethanol Demand & Corn Exports
Brazil’s recent explosion in corn-based ethanol production capacity is absorbing large production (record production in2025) – but not all of it. ARC’s research in Brazil suggests domestic demand growth will persist, but also that Brazilian corn exports of 42-46 MMT’s must be expected in both 24/25 and 25/26 crop years. Additionally, further ethanol production capacity growth will on the margin slow, and cheap sugarcane prices linger in the back round. A switching from corn to sugarcane occurs at southern/central Brazilian ethanol plants if Brazilian cash corn prices rally by more than 8-10% from current quotes of $3.75/Bu. ARC pegs Brazil’s industrial corn use in 24/25 at 29.5 MMT’s in 12 months ending Feb 28, 2025. The Brazilian corn market very probably bottomed in July – as it typically does – and has moved slowly but steady higher since. Renewed weakness in interior Brazilian cash prices is not anticipated intil March/April 26. Also of note is that cash ethanol prices in Brazil have been stubbornly high despite record production. Cash ethanol in Sao Paulo this week is quoted at $2.20Gal, down from $2.30 a week ago but compared to cash prices of $1.80-$1.90/Gal in KS, IA, IN, and IL. There remains incentive to maximize Brazilian ethanol production capacity. This lends support to corn markets there and leaves the exporter having to compete with domestic end users for supply. Growth in Brazilian ethanol production & consumption has been partially responsible for the US expanding its share of world corn trade since autumn 2024. However, there will be enlarged competition for market share moving forward. Ukraines exportable corn surplus will be up 4-5 MMT’s (155-200 Mil Bu) year-over-year.
Argentina still has some 12-14 MMJT’s left to ship from now till April. And Brazilian exports in crop year 24/25 are projected at 44 MMT’s vs. USDA’s 43 and up 6 MMT’s (235 MMT’s) on the previous year. ARC estimates Braziian corn production in 2025 at 139 MMT’s, vs. USDA’s 135 and which aligned with CONAB’s latest forecast. ARC also estimates that Brazilian corn exports Oct-Feb will total 24.6 MMT’s vs. 20.5 the previous year and is not expected to exhaust surplus until early 2026. Assuming safrinha acreage expansion of 600,000 hectares and trend yield, Brazilian corn production 2026 will total 133 MMT’s. Exports will be 43 MMT’s despite additional projected growth in ethanol consumption. It’s just not the same marketplace as autumn/winter 2024, when trade flows were disrupted by a smaller Brazilian crop and major drought in E Europe, Ukraine, and Russia.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374