Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Fed Waller Speech at 6:30 A.M., Fed Hammack Speech at 7:00 A.M., Pending Home Sales MoM & YoY at 9:00 A.M., Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at 9:30 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Musalem Speech & Fed Williams Speech at 12:30 P.M., Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M., and Fed Bostic Speech at 5:00 P.M.
The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Index, rose 0.2% in August, unchanged from July, and was 2.7% higher on a annualized basis. This was the highest annualized inflation rate in 6 months, up from 2.6% in June and July, but marked the 23rd consecutive month that the inflation rate was below the log-term average. Additionally, personal spending in August rose 0.6% from July, marking the most substantial increase in 6 months at $21.1 billion. Personal income rose for the 3rd straight month and was 0.4% higher than in July, reaching $26.28 trillion. Finally, the savings rate slipped to 4.6% of disposable income, the lowest since December 2024, and the second lowest since December 2022.
Central US Weather Update
Central US Arid Through October 11th: Warmth Persists:
The forecast is consistent with prior runs. Lite/moderate rainfall is possible across the NW Corn Belt in the 11-15 day period, but nearly complete dryness persists in all areas into Oct 5-6 – and continues into the middle part of Autumn across the central and eastern Midwest. Aug/September dryness leaves open yield questions, but ARC views the current pattern as favorable. Harvest will move forward rapidly, and recent soaking rainfall across the mid-South & Ohio River Valley will keep Mississippi River levels above low thresholds throughout the next two weeks. The movement of grain will continue unobstructed. A few more rain events will be needed in Oct-Nov to support SRW growth in the southern and eastern Midwest. Soil moisture across the Plains is adequate to surplus HRW Wheat.
Atlantic Watch
Hurricane Humberto is expected to affect Bermuda late Tuesday and Tropical Storm Imelda’s cone is following Hunberto’s to Bermuda as well, The storms will create dangerous surf and marine conditions rip currents along the Florida and Georgia coast and spread north upward the US east coast. Tropical Storm Imelda is being watched as she can gain hurricane strength later today.
Dec CBOT corn settled below the 100 and 20-day moving average for the first time since late August. Hedge pressure is noted amid the absence of weather threats to harvest through October 7th . ARC expects yield reports to improve once harvesting becomes more active inNE, the Dakotas, WI, and MN. Additionally, final crop carryover stocks are expected to be closer to 1.4 Bil Bu vs. USDA’s projected 1.325 Bil following unremarkable cash market performance during the last days of summer. New crop basis bids have been unmoved at historically low levels. ARC’s deep dive into silage data suggests USDA’s implied silage acreage is too high by 0.8-1.o Mil acres, which puts a like amount of acres, into US corn grain balance sheet. It’s just tough to be to bullish due to the yield amid the harvested area of 90.5-91.0 Mil acres. A yield below 177 BPA is needed to to pull end stocks below 2.0 Bil. The transition from reduced old crop supply to record production keeps downside risk in place until harvest surpasses 50%. A close in Dec below $4.15 opens downside to $3.95-$4.05. ARC remains a seller of recoveries with March unlikely to muster a rally much above $4.50.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Warm Weather Harvest Puts Yields in Focus. The Corn & Ethanol Report 09/29/2025
We kickoff the day with Fed Waller Speech at 6:30 A.M., Fed Hammack Speech at 7:00 A.M., Pending Home Sales MoM & YoY at 9:00 A.M., Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at 9:30 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Musalem Speech & Fed Williams Speech at 12:30 P.M., Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M., and Fed Bostic Speech at 5:00 P.M.
The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Index, rose 0.2% in August, unchanged from July, and was 2.7% higher on a annualized basis. This was the highest annualized inflation rate in 6 months, up from 2.6% in June and July, but marked the 23rd consecutive month that the inflation rate was below the log-term average. Additionally, personal spending in August rose 0.6% from July, marking the most substantial increase in 6 months at $21.1 billion. Personal income rose for the 3rd straight month and was 0.4% higher than in July, reaching $26.28 trillion. Finally, the savings rate slipped to 4.6% of disposable income, the lowest since December 2024, and the second lowest since December 2022.
Central US Weather Update
Central US Arid Through October 11th: Warmth Persists:
The forecast is consistent with prior runs. Lite/moderate rainfall is possible across the NW Corn Belt in the 11-15 day period, but nearly complete dryness persists in all areas into Oct 5-6 – and continues into the middle part of Autumn across the central and eastern Midwest. Aug/September dryness leaves open yield questions, but ARC views the current pattern as favorable. Harvest will move forward rapidly, and recent soaking rainfall across the mid-South & Ohio River Valley will keep Mississippi River levels above low thresholds throughout the next two weeks. The movement of grain will continue unobstructed. A few more rain events will be needed in Oct-Nov to support SRW growth in the southern and eastern Midwest. Soil moisture across the Plains is adequate to surplus HRW Wheat.
Atlantic Watch
Hurricane Humberto is expected to affect Bermuda late Tuesday and Tropical Storm Imelda’s cone is following Hunberto’s to Bermuda as well, The storms will create dangerous surf and marine conditions rip currents along the Florida and Georgia coast and spread north upward the US east coast. Tropical Storm Imelda is being watched as she can gain hurricane strength later today.
Corn Comments & analysis
CBOT Corn Corrects; Drops Below Key Moving Averages:
Dec CBOT corn settled below the 100 and 20-day moving average for the first time since late August. Hedge pressure is noted amid the absence of weather threats to harvest through October 7th . ARC expects yield reports to improve once harvesting becomes more active inNE, the Dakotas, WI, and MN. Additionally, final crop carryover stocks are expected to be closer to 1.4 Bil Bu vs. USDA’s projected 1.325 Bil following unremarkable cash market performance during the last days of summer. New crop basis bids have been unmoved at historically low levels. ARC’s deep dive into silage data suggests USDA’s implied silage acreage is too high by 0.8-1.o Mil acres, which puts a like amount of acres, into US corn grain balance sheet. It’s just tough to be to bullish due to the yield amid the harvested area of 90.5-91.0 Mil acres. A yield below 177 BPA is needed to to pull end stocks below 2.0 Bil. The transition from reduced old crop supply to record production keeps downside risk in place until harvest surpasses 50%. A close in Dec below $4.15 opens downside to $3.95-$4.05. ARC remains a seller of recoveries with March unlikely to muster a rally much above $4.50.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374