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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Softs Report 09/29/2025

By On September 29, 2025 - 10:19 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
COTTON
General Comments:   Cotton was a little higher last week but remains in a weekly trading range.  The US harvest is ready to start in most areas and has been started in some areas.  Macro economic factors played a big role as the US government is supporting the economy via reduced interest rates and deficit spending.  Commercial buying has been noted near 66.00 basis nearest futures.  There are still ideas that growing conditions are generally good.  There are still reports of good weather in Texas and into the southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around.  A few showers have been reported in Texas and the Southeast is also getting showers.  Bolls are opening, but the rain does not seem heavy enough to damage the fibers in the bolls.  The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News:  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 70 contracts.
Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to up.  Support is at 65.80, 64.30, and 63.00 December, with resistance of 67.80, 68.90 and 69.50 December.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 23, 2025
    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable
    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions
    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total
    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   316,073
    : Positions                                                                               :
    :   35,100   103,912    74,003   107,714    97,261    86,189    27,762   303,007   302,938:   13,066    13,135
    : Changes from: September 16, 2025         (Change in open interest:       6,102)         :
    :   -1,581     1,723     2,278    10,815     3,714    -4,149    -1,341     7,363     6,374:   -1,261      -272
    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :
    :     11.1      32.9      23.4      34.1      30.8      27.3       8.8      95.9      95.8:      4.1       4.2
    : Total Traders:   349          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :
    :       84       130       104        75        64        43        24       266       262:
——————————————————————————————————————-
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were a little lower last week in light volume trading.  The market remains in a trading range on the weekly charts.  The weather is considered good for production here and in Brazil and Mexico.  Trends are mixed.  Development conditions are good in Florida and in Brazil now with daily rounds of showers in Florida and dry weather in Brazil.  The poor production potential for the crops comes from early dry weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida and closed near the lows of the week producers to lose trees.  Brazil production potential got hurt by cold and dry weather seen earlier in the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 239.00, 230.00, and 227.00 November, with resistance at 255.00, 261.00, and 274.00 November.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 23, 2025
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :
CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is     9,777                :
: Positions                                                                                                    :
:    2,765     5,482       457         0       216     2,297       931         3     1,181       105     1,422 :
: Changes from:     September 16, 2025                                                                         :
:       30      -432      -103         0        60        21        10        -3      -103       -44       235 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :
:     28.3      56.1       4.7       0.0       2.2      23.5       9.5       0.0      12.1       1.1      14.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    41                     :
:       10         9         4         0         .         6         6         .         9         .         7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE
General Comments:  New York was higher yesterday and London was lower after reports indicated that the weather in Brazil has improved.  Rains have been reported in Coffee production areas lately.  There are still reduced deliverable supplies for both exchanges as commercials have taken the supplies instead of buying in cash markets.  The lack of deliverable stocks in both markets and the lack of deliveries has supported the futures market.  Reductions in deliverable stocks are starting to abate.  But, the rains have pushed producers to sell the current inventory no matter the price.  Prices in the world have been lower as US demand has waned under the Trump tariff regime.  There are hopes that a breakthrough can be seen this week when Trump and Lula meet.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 307.41 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up.  Support is at 368.00, 356.00, and 351.00 December, and resistance is at 384.00, 393.00 and 407.00 December.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 4040, 3910, and 3830 November, with resistance at 4350, 4550, and 4690 November.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 23, 2025
    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable
    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions
    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total
    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   223,356
    : Positions                                                                               :
    :   37,418    14,688    79,627    51,409   114,492    45,863     8,327   214,316   217,134:    9,039     6,221
    : Changes from: September 16, 2025         (Change in open interest:      -3,830)         :
    :     -599     2,336     1,078       445    -7,106    -3,730       445    -2,807    -3,247:   -1,023      -583
    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :
    :     16.8       6.6      35.7      23.0      51.3      20.5       3.7      96.0      97.2:      4.0       2.8
    : Total Traders:   366          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :
    :      119        75       120        93       113        42        16       307       280:
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR
General Comments:  New York and London were a little higher last week and trends are trying to turn up in New York, but remain sideways in London.  Ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue.  The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions.  Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong.  The outlook for cane crops in India and Thailand are in good condition with reports of good rains this year, while Brazilian cane continue to favor producing sugar over ethanol.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up.  Support is at 1500, 1470, and 1440 March and resistance is at 1640, 1660, and 1680 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 450.00, 439.00, and 433.00 December, with resistance at 464.00, 470.00, and 477.00 December.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 23, 2025
    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable
    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions
    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total
    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732                                                              Open Interest is 1,012,265
    : Positions                                                                               :
    :   79,257   247,614   194,964   425,572   424,037   234,348    66,010   934,141   932,625:   78,123    79,640
    : Changes from: September 16, 2025         (Change in open interest:      -8,830)         :
    :   -9,135    13,125    -9,715    25,242    -7,129   -15,929    -2,380    -9,538    -6,099:      707    -2,731
    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :
    :      7.8      24.5      19.3      42.0      41.9      23.2       6.5      92.3      92.1:      7.7       7.9
    : Total Traders:   266          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :
    :       61        80        88        71        66        39        19       219       209:
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA
General Comments:  Both markets closed lower in narrow range trading last week as demand concerns in West Africa continue.  US demand has been weakening due to the increased prices inside the US from the Trump tariffs and world demand is thought zto be weaker due to higher prices.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market feels that there is less demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana and the lack of demand is expected to continue.  Ecuador is expected to become the second largest producer of Cocoa, replacing Ghana on the list.  Commercials told wire services last week that harvests may get off to a slow start in parts of West Africa, with the main crop season due to start on October 1.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down.  Support is at 6700, 6540, and 6420 December, with resistance at 7170, 7380, and 7690 December.  Trends in London are mixed to down.  Support is at 4700, 4510, and 4400 December, with resistance at 5080, 5290, and 5350 December.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 23, 2025
    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable
    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions
    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total
    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732                                                              Open Interest is   122,853
    : Positions                                                                               :
    :   14,963    14,698    30,312    41,236    58,772    24,879     9,859   111,390   113,641:   11,464     9,213
    : Changes from: September 16, 2025         (Change in open interest:       8,270)         :
    :    1,426     1,219     1,928     5,574     2,403      -972     1,623     7,956     7,172:      314     1,098
    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :
    :     12.2      12.0      24.7      33.6      47.8      20.3       8.0      90.7      92.5:      9.3       7.5
    : Total Traders:   164          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :
    :       38        50        54        38        34        28        14       138       121:
——————————————————————————————————————-
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