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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 09/29/2025

By Jack Scoville On September 29, 2025 - 10:20 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Grain Stocks, Small Grains

The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Grain Stocks and Small Grains reports scheduled for release at noon ET on Tuesday.

U.S. Stockpiles on Sept. 1, 2025 (million bushels) USDA USDA

Average Range June 2025 Sept. 2024

Corn 1,336 1,260-1,450 4,644 1,763

Soybeans 322 295-347 1,008 342

Wheat 2,041 1,954-2,090 851 1,992

***

2025 Wheat Production

USDA USDA

Average Range August 2024

All Wheat 1,925 1,898-1,970 1,927 1,971

Winter Wheat 1,343 1,245-1,375 1,355 1,349

Hard Red Winter 768 758-781 769 770

Soft Red Winter 349 335-475 339 342

White Winter 256 235-368 247 236

Other Spring 484 470-506 484 542

Durum 85 79-89 87 80

WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat closed a little lower last week despite a solid weekly export sales report. Traders continue to monitor world wheat prices and think the US needs cheaper prices to compete. Russian sources told wire services that producers there are set to reduce offers and production due to low prices and problems with the government. It remains too dry in Winter Wheat areas and too wet in Spring Wheat areas of Russia, but crop size ideas are expected to increase due to reports of big yields in Spring Wheat growing areas. A French government report showed plenty of production but lower quality. Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains and Canada, but western areas have been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year. Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good and Australia estimates that production this year will be high and potentially a record.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 505, 499 and 493 December, with resistance at 532, 535, and 543 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 496, 490, and 484 December, with resistance at 520, 523, and 529 December. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 23, 2025

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 517,858

: Positions :

: 80,944 180,608 160,142 118,173 76,845 122,962 67,112 482,222 484,707: 35,636 33,151

: Changes from: September 16, 2025 (Change in open interest: 9,307) :

: 4,044 11,540 2,609 2,503 -7,861 -1,320 3,704 7,837 9,993: 1,470 -686

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 15.6 34.9 30.9 22.8 14.8 23.7 13.0 93.1 93.6: 6.9 6.4

: Total Traders: 425 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 108 122 126 114 96 44 29 337 310:

——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 23, 2025

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 324,291

: Positions :

: 42,347 99,318 81,286 78,277 89,041 102,083 35,215 303,993 304,860: 20,298 19,431

: Changes from: September 16, 2025 (Change in open interest: 3,008) :

: -2,124 3,407 696 5,235 -1,165 -247 135 3,561 3,073: -553 -65

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 13.1 30.6 25.1 24.1 27.5 31.5 10.9 93.7 94.0: 6.3 6.0

: Total Traders: 277 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 51 75 73 84 77 36 19 211 207:

——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 23, 2025

: Reportable Positions :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant : : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-HRSpring – MIAX FUTURES EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :

CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 73,944 :

: Positions :

: 43,463 22,748 2,862 1,107 303 8,186 34,539 2,525 4,848 1,300 2,638 :

: Changes from: September 16, 2025 :

: 927 -660 -339 46 74 310 831 12 -538 190 175 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 58.8 30.8 3.9 1.5 0.4 11.1 46.7 3.4 6.6 1.8 3.6 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 118 :

: 49 37 5 . . 9 24 10 8 7 8 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:

General Comments Rice was lower in quiet trading last week. The market remained in a trading range. The harvest is wrapping up in Texas and southern Louisiana. Harvest is active in Mississippi and Arkansas. Chart trends are mixed on the charts. The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand. Louisiana reports good but not great yields and quality. Texas reports average to below average field and milling yields. Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1112, 1100, and 1088 November and resistance is at 1168, 1181, and 1201 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 23, 2025

: Reportable Positions :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant : : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :

CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 12,969 :

: Positions :

: 6,424 1,700 189 157 0 301 6,411 0 1,760 1,216 1,268 :

: Changes from: September 16, 2025 :

: 15 -171 0 1 0 15 44 -54 -27 116 105 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 49.5 13.1 1.5 1.2 0.0 2.3 49.4 0.0 13.6 9.4 9.8 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 69 :

: 18 13 . . 0 . 19 0 9 9 6 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn was a little lower last week as the coming harvest outweighed a strong week of export sales reported by USDA. Trends are mixed as the crop is maturing and the harvest is starting to expand. There are ideas that US production might not be super strong due to disease such as rust to offset the demand losses. Temperatures should average near to below normal this week and there are forecasts for scattered showers. Most of the western Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high. Areas east of the Mississippi River have been very dry for the last month or more. Demand for Corn in world markets remains moderate to strong. Oats were lower.

Overnight News: Mexico bought 135,660 tons off US Corn and unknown destinations bought 110,668 tons of US Corn.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down. Support is at 417, 414, and 411 December, and resistance is at 431, 434, and 442 December. Trends in Oats are down. Support is at 301, 295, and 289 December, and resistance is at 316, 320, and 324 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 23, 2025

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,040,300

: Positions :

: 125,371 337,184 652,998 662,037 703,875 424,074 138,032 1,864,479 1,832,089: 175,821 208,211

: Changes from: September 16, 2025 (Change in open interest: 24,385) :

: -1,048 3,353 8,519 27,634 13,317 -16,775 -3,196 18,330 21,993: 6,056 2,393

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 6.1 16.5 32.0 32.4 34.5 20.8 6.8 91.4 89.8: 8.6 10.2

: Total Traders: 848 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 123 186 205 380 381 50 26 686 684:

——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 23, 2025

: Reportable Positions :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant : : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :

CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 5,270 :

: Positions :

: 1,296 2,131 0 112 0 0 1,170 0 1,561 185 167 :

: Changes from: September 16, 2025 :

: 376 245 0 4 0 0 194 0 120 23 107 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 24.6 40.4 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 22.2 0.0 29.6 3.5 3.2 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 29 :

: 8 7 0 . 0 0 4 0 10 . 4 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower last week. The weekly export sales report was not strong. There are still no indications that China was changing its trade policies and on forecasts for no rain to be seen in the Midwest this week. Cool and dry weather has been seen recently in the Midwest. The dry weather could hurt pod fill and bean size. Argentina has removed taxes on Soybeans exports and China immediately bought up to 40 cargoes. China has not bought US Soybeans yet and traders are worried that demand for the new crop will be a lot less this year. Good growing conditions continue in the Midwest with cool and mostly dry weather in the forecast. Prices are still higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America due to the Trump tariff regime.

Overnight News:

Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 1002, 995, and 981 November, and resistance is at 1024, 1029, and 1036 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 266.00, 263.00, and 260.00 October, and resistance is at 272.00, 277.00, and 279.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are down. Support is at 4840, 4740, and 4680 October, with resistance at 5070, 5110, and 5170 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 23, 2025

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,211,371

: Positions :

: 62,458 149,945 357,502 494,541 562,881 232,854 59,973 1,147,355 1,130,301: 64,016 81,070

: Changes from: September 16, 2025 (Change in open interest: 89,924) :

: -9,559 20,788 52,839 45,118 7,624 -1,823 2,835 86,574 84,085: 3,350 5,839

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 5.2 12.4 29.5 40.8 46.5 19.2 5.0 94.7 93.3: 5.3 6.7

: Total Traders: 653 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 130 168 197 245 257 48 24 544 541:

——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 23, 2025

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 726,878

: Positions :

: 56,123 100,334 229,888 242,482 330,677 163,991 35,396 692,484 696,296: 34,394 30,582

: Changes from: September 16, 2025 (Change in open interest: -3,526) :

: -7,040 15,206 -844 16,947 -13,044 -9,204 -5,809 -141 -4,491: -3,385 965

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 7.7 13.8 31.6 33.4 45.5 22.6 4.9 95.3 95.8: 4.7 4.2

: Total Traders: 356 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 79 94 117 100 105 43 21 286 279:

——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 23, 2025

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 749,986

: Positions :

: 75,350 158,126 202,485 294,798 302,877 124,026 48,792 696,659 712,280: 53,327 37,706

: Changes from: September 16, 2025 (Change in open interest: 36,260) :

: -1,958 16,826 24,186 18,526 -9,417 -4,503 1,396 36,251 32,991: 8 3,269

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 10.0 21.1 27.0 39.3 40.4 16.5 6.5 92.9 95.0: 7.1 5.0

: Total Traders: 381 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 77 93 108 141 120 38 22 315 295:

——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA

General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower last week with the price action in Chicago and despite ideas of weaker production and strong export demand. Futures were also lower today. Canola was a little lower with Chicago Soybean Oil and on harvest selling. Concerns remain about demand potential. The Canadian government is moving now to support farmers in the face of the Chinese demand loss and also in the face of the Trump tariffs. Trends are mixed to down on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down. Support is at 602.00, 596.00, and 590.00 November, with resistance at 630.00, 640.00, and 653.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4390, 4320, and 4200 December, with resistance at 4480, 4530, and 4580 December.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 23, 2025

: Reportable Positions :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant : : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :

CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 20,606 :

: Positions :

: 13,446 12,085 1,276 2,396 1,180 3,605 0 515 544 4,370 40 :

: Changes from: September 16, 2025 :

: 2,029 3,309 160 -200 0 80 0 0 20 -820 20 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 65.3 58.6 6.2 11.6 5.7 17.5 0.0 2.5 2.6 21.2 0.2 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 32 :

: 9 8 . 5 4 . 0 . . 6 . :

—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 23, 2025

: Reportable Positions :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant : : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :

CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 269,418 :

: Positions :

: 145,844 132,786 6,689 11,031 1,992 49,328 53,429 29,374 18,973 20,919 16,157 :

: Changes from: September 16, 2025 :

: 9,675 1,023 1,769 1,190 -36 -2,259 5,413 -1,890 -1,054 188 -748 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 54.1 49.3 2.5 4.1 0.7 18.3 19.8 10.9 7.0 7.8 6.0 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 362 :

: 50 109 . 7 5 36 52 27 35 107 39 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sep 29

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Oct 1067.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –

Nov 1080.00 00.00 Unquoted – –

Dec 1087.50 00.00 Unquoted – –

Jan/Feb/Mar 1090.00 00.00 Unquoted – –

Apr/May/Jun 1075.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Oct 1072.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –

Nov 1085.00 00.00 Unquoted – –

Dec 1092.50 00.00 Unquoted – –

Jan/Feb/Mar 1095.00 00.00 Unquoted – –

Apr/May/Jun 1080.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Oct 1060.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Oct 1025.00 00.00 Unquoted – –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Oct 4,350.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Oct 474.00 00.00 Unquoted – –

($1=MYR4.213)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 29

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 160,513 lots, or .63 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open

Settle Interest

Nov-25 3,939 3,945 3,917 3,938 3,940 3,931 -9 112,252 161,800

Jan-26 3,906 3,914 3,888 3,895 3,918 3,897 -21 40,654 122,815

Mar-26 3,904 3,913 3,889 3,897 3,922 3,897 -25 4,850 34,133

May-26 3,935 3,944 3,921 3,926 3,951 3,929 -22 1,078 8,825

Jul-26 3,931 3,941 3,919 3,926 3,945 3,927 -18 1,542 8,991

Sep-26 3,928 3,945 3,923 3,932 3,948 3,932 -16 137 1,014

Corn

Turnover: 851,383 lots, or 18.42 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open

Settle Interest

Nov-25 2,178 2,187 2,155 2,159 2,176 2,171 -5 557,756 640,186

Jan-26 2,140 2,146 2,128 2,135 2,137 2,137 0 207,471 544,713

Mar-26 2,150 2,157 2,142 2,149 2,146 2,150 4 42,325 261,880

May-26 2,203 2,212 2,198 2,203 2,203 2,206 3 29,216 103,043

Jul-26 2,216 2,220 2,210 2,213 2,213 2,216 3 14,196 48,596

Sep-26 2,231 2,234 2,226 2,227 2,228 2,230 2 419 2,069

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,138,409 lots, or 3.31 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open

Settle Interest

Nov-25 2,906 2,922 2,893 2,906 2,916 2,906 -10 91,030 428,177

Dec-25 2,951 2,963 2,935 2,943 2,960 2,945 -15 7,748 139,162

Jan-26 2,938 2,952 2,926 2,933 2,949 2,937 -12 817,240 1,925,537

Mar-26 2,918 2,923 2,903 2,906 2,921 2,913 -8 46,537 364,647

May-26 2,753 2,755 2,739 2,743 2,755 2,749 -6 150,302 1,017,511

Jul-26 2,739 2,742 2,725 2,728 2,744 2,735 -9 15,932 134,680

Aug-26 2,858 2,858 2,845 2,848 2,860 2,854 -6 3,613 29,700

Sep-26 2,858 2,862 2,849 2,852 2,863 2,857 -6 6,007 45,368

Palm Oil

Turnover: 480,901 lots, or 4.44 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open

Settle Interest

Oct-25 9,126 9,138 9,056 9,114 9,126 9,102 -24 84 228

Nov-25 9,168 9,230 9,152 9,186 9,208 9,188 -20 5,851 15,454

Dec-25 9,194 9,244 9,162 9,202 9,232 9,204 -28 1,100 2,138

Jan-26 9,236 9,280 9,188 9,234 9,266 9,234 -32 444,366 353,461

Feb-26 9,216 9,248 9,198 9,218 9,218 9,224 6 13 1,245

Mar-26 9,188 9,238 9,154 9,202 9,160 9,196 36 87 834

Apr-26 9,150 9,174 9,136 9,152 9,154 9,152 -2 258 341

May-26 9,060 9,096 9,018 9,060 9,076 9,056 -20 28,916 91,396

Jun-26 8,986 8,994 8,938 8,938 8,978 8,978 0 4 114

Jul-26 8,888 8,898 8,844 8,844 8,876 8,880 4 10 165

Aug-26 8,768 8,782 8,760 8,768 8,776 8,770 -6 8 59

Sep-26 8,676 8,706 8,648 8,688 8,686 8,676 -10 204 603

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 286,385 lots, or 23.26 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open

Settle Interest

Nov-25 8,160 8,194 8,138 8,158 8,202 8,166 -36 4,790 12,069

Dec-25 8,202 8,240 8,186 8,204 8,248 8,210 -38 850 7,525

Jan-26 8,150 8,184 8,128 8,150 8,192 8,154 -38 236,751 528,401

Mar-26 8,112 8,134 8,094 8,108 8,140 8,114 -26 50 1,661

May-26 7,932 7,974 7,902 7,912 7,946 7,932 -14 43,180 222,723

Jul-26 7,888 7,930 7,862 7,864 7,908 7,882 -26 195 718

Aug-26 7,884 7,922 7,858 7,866 7,896 7,878 -18 13 71

Sep-26 7,850 7,898 7,842 7,854 7,876 7,858 -18 556 912

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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