Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., New Home Sales and New Home Sales MoM at 9:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction and 2-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Building Permits Final and Building Permits MoM Final at 2:00 P.M., Fed Daly Speech 3:10 P.M., and UN General Assembly.
The Federal Reserve reported that the US M2 money supply in August rose 0.4% from July and was 4.77% higher than a year ago, at a record high of $22,195 billion. Growth in M2 reflects continued liquidity in the banking system, deposits and near-money items holding strong, even as interest rates are relatively high. The Fed has been balancing inflation against slowing labor growth. Money supply is expected to remain positive, holding between 4-6% year-over—year, if current economic conditions continue. Financial markets and other risk assets will continue to benefit from rising liquidity, while additional interest rate cuts are expected as inflation is moderated. The extra US money supply often finds its way overseas as the dominate currency in African nations.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Rain Exits South, Eastern Midwest After Thursday; Warmth/Dryness Forecast into Oct 8th :
The Central US forecast remains consistent. Heavy showers will impact the Delta/Southeast and southern Midwest for another 48 hours, providing needed rainfall to doubled cropped soybeans and waterways. Soil moisture will be adequate for another 48 hours , providing for DRW germination and growth across; AR, TN, KY, IL, IN and OH. A drier and rather warm trend is forecasted through the 5-15 day period. Harvest windows have re-opened across the Central Plains, IA, and much of the Great Lakes. The EU, GFS, and AI models are void of additional soaking rainfall through the first full week of October. Max temps nationwide will stay in the 70’s & low 80’s with frost threats absent. Even hurricanes stay off the US East Coast throughout the forecast period. However, two Tropical Disturbances lurk in the Atlantic with Disturbance 1 in the Central and Western Tropical Atlantic and Disturbance 2 in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. Harvest progress will only be slowed by the sheer size of the 2025 crop yields. The 2024 crop came off the field quickly which was due to disappointing crop yields. So far, the 2025 is being gathered at a very normal historical pace.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Dec Corn Recovers to Test 100-Day Moving Average; New Rally High Needed:
Corn ended slightly higher amid the market’s back and forth chase between $4.18-$4.30. The 50 and 100-day moving averages are a day closer to crossing, but ARC’s work maintains considerable resistance exists above $4.30 spot CBOT corn. Corn futures have failed to exceed mid-September high and the refilling of the cash pipeline is ahead. ARC can’t rule out a re-test of $3.90-$4.05 support as bear markets in wheat/sorghum and soybeans prevail. Tight inventories today will quickly transition to oversupply. Spot sorghum bids in Kansas have fallen to $.90-$1.26 under Dec corn – which in Central KS keeps the cash sorghum market below $3.00/Bu. Sorghum’s use in Plains ethanol production will be maximized. Cash corn bids in KS sit at $.06/Bu above HRW wheat and $.70-$1.20/bu above sorghum. Large Mexican corn demand is a function of feeder cattle being stuck south of the US border. The bulls argue that US corn yields will drop due to Southern Leaf Rust and dry finish of the growing season. Although US corn data calls for a modest 1-3 BPA yield decline, record yields are being uncovered in the Western Plains and NC Midwest. ARC sees the US corn yield at 185.2 BPA stocks 2.3-2.5 Bil Bu. Rallies to $4.28 or above are a sale.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
From Tight to Top Heavy : Corn Inventories Flip Fast. The Corn & Ethanol Report 09/24/2025
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., New Home Sales and New Home Sales MoM at 9:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction and 2-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Building Permits Final and Building Permits MoM Final at 2:00 P.M., Fed Daly Speech 3:10 P.M., and UN General Assembly.
The Federal Reserve reported that the US M2 money supply in August rose 0.4% from July and was 4.77% higher than a year ago, at a record high of $22,195 billion. Growth in M2 reflects continued liquidity in the banking system, deposits and near-money items holding strong, even as interest rates are relatively high. The Fed has been balancing inflation against slowing labor growth. Money supply is expected to remain positive, holding between 4-6% year-over—year, if current economic conditions continue. Financial markets and other risk assets will continue to benefit from rising liquidity, while additional interest rate cuts are expected as inflation is moderated. The extra US money supply often finds its way overseas as the dominate currency in African nations.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Rain Exits South, Eastern Midwest After Thursday; Warmth/Dryness Forecast into Oct 8th :
The Central US forecast remains consistent. Heavy showers will impact the Delta/Southeast and southern Midwest for another 48 hours, providing needed rainfall to doubled cropped soybeans and waterways. Soil moisture will be adequate for another 48 hours , providing for DRW germination and growth across; AR, TN, KY, IL, IN and OH. A drier and rather warm trend is forecasted through the 5-15 day period. Harvest windows have re-opened across the Central Plains, IA, and much of the Great Lakes. The EU, GFS, and AI models are void of additional soaking rainfall through the first full week of October. Max temps nationwide will stay in the 70’s & low 80’s with frost threats absent. Even hurricanes stay off the US East Coast throughout the forecast period. However, two Tropical Disturbances lurk in the Atlantic with Disturbance 1 in the Central and Western Tropical Atlantic and Disturbance 2 in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. Harvest progress will only be slowed by the sheer size of the 2025 crop yields. The 2024 crop came off the field quickly which was due to disappointing crop yields. So far, the 2025 is being gathered at a very normal historical pace.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Dec Corn Recovers to Test 100-Day Moving Average; New Rally High Needed:
Corn ended slightly higher amid the market’s back and forth chase between $4.18-$4.30. The 50 and 100-day moving averages are a day closer to crossing, but ARC’s work maintains considerable resistance exists above $4.30 spot CBOT corn. Corn futures have failed to exceed mid-September high and the refilling of the cash pipeline is ahead. ARC can’t rule out a re-test of $3.90-$4.05 support as bear markets in wheat/sorghum and soybeans prevail. Tight inventories today will quickly transition to oversupply. Spot sorghum bids in Kansas have fallen to $.90-$1.26 under Dec corn – which in Central KS keeps the cash sorghum market below $3.00/Bu. Sorghum’s use in Plains ethanol production will be maximized. Cash corn bids in KS sit at $.06/Bu above HRW wheat and $.70-$1.20/bu above sorghum. Large Mexican corn demand is a function of feeder cattle being stuck south of the US border. The bulls argue that US corn yields will drop due to Southern Leaf Rust and dry finish of the growing season. Although US corn data calls for a modest 1-3 BPA yield decline, record yields are being uncovered in the Western Plains and NC Midwest. ARC sees the US corn yield at 185.2 BPA stocks 2.3-2.5 Bil Bu. Rallies to $4.28 or above are a sale.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374