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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 09/23/2025

By On September 23, 2025 - 9:59 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Sep 22
WA_GR101
Washington, DC    Mon   Sep 22, 2025   USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.  NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
                  REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING SEP 18, 2025
                            — METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
                                                   CURRENT     PREVIOUS
             ———– WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR
  GRAIN      09/18/2025  09/11/2025  09/19/2024    TO DATE     TO DATE
BARLEY            171           0           0        4,019        4,798
CORN        1,329,024   1,512,965   1,150,305    3,491,759    2,201,209
FLAXSEED            0          48           0          216          192
MIXED               0           0           0            0            0
OATS                0         698           0        2,793          148
RYE                 0           0           0            0            0
SORGHUM        30,601      36,000      80,366       66,601      152,717
SOYBEANS      484,116     821,809     498,831    1,569,777    1,246,429
SUNFLOWER           0           0           0            0            0
WHEAT         854,454     756,396     724,604    8,711,263    7,732,681
Total       2,698,366   3,127,916   2,454,106   13,846,428   11,338,174
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED;  SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA
      This Week   Last Week   Last Year   Average
Cotton Bolls Opening    60    50    62    59
Cotton Harvested  12    9     13    12
Corn Dented 91    85    91    93
 Corn Mature      56    41    59    59
Corn Harvested    11    7     13    11
Soybeans Dropping Leaves      61    41    62    60
Soybeans Harvested      9     5     12    9
Sorghum Coloring  89    81    91    91
Sorghum Mature    52    44    58    64
Sorghum Harvested 25    22    28    27
Peanuts Harvested 9     3     5     6
Sugarbeets Harvested    12    8     11    12
Sunflowers Harvested    0           0     0
Rice Harvested    71    61    70    57
Spring Wheat Harvested  96    94    95    96
Winter Wheat Planted    20    11    23    23
Winter Wheat Emerged    4           4     4
      Very Poor   Poor  Fair  Good  Excellent
Cotton This Week  6     12    35    37    10
Cotton Last Week  4     10    34    42    10
Cotton Last Year  14    19    30    32    5
Corn This Week    3     7     24    49    17
Corn Last Week    3     6     24    50    17
Corn Last Year    4     8     23    50    15
Soybeans This Week      4     8     27    48    13
Soybeans Last Week      3     8     26    50    13
Soybeans Last Year      3     8     25    52    12
Sorghum This Week 3     7     26    46    18
Sorghum Last Week 3     7     25    46    19
Sorghum Last Year 8     14    34    36    8
Peanuts This Week 3     11    31    46    nine
Peanuts Last Week 1     7     28    54    10
Peanuts Last Year 1     7     30    54    8
Pastures and Ranges This Week 13    23    30    26    8
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 13    22    30    28    7
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 20    25    30    20    5
WHEAT
General Comments:   Wheat closed lower as reports of weaker Russian and European prices are still around.  Russian sources told wire services that producers there are set to reduce offers and production due to low prices and problems with the government.  It remains too dry in Winter Wheat areas and too wet in Spring Wheat areas of Russia, but crop size ideas are expected to increase due to reports of big yields in Spring Wheat growing areas.  A French government report showed plenty of production but lower quality.  Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains but Canada has been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year.  Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good and Australia estimates that production this year will be high.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 505, 499 and 493 December, with resistance at 532, 535, and 543 December.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 496, 490, and 484 December, with resistance at 520, 523, and 529 December. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
RICE:
General Comments   Rice was a little lower yesterday and the market remained in a trading range on the weekly charts.  The harvest is wrapping up in Texas and southern Louisiana.  Crop condition ratings were mostly good last week.  Chart trends are mixed on the charts.  The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.  Louisiana reports good but not great yields and quality.  Texas reports average to below average field and milling yields.  Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.  Harvest is increasing in Mississippi and Arkansas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1124, 1112, and 1100 November and resistance is at 1168, 1181, and 1201 November.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower yesterday and trends are turning down as the crop is maturing and the harvest is starting to expand.  The weekly charts showed higher prices due to the roll from September to December.  Ideas are that futures have created a low as prices were able to rally on no news or bad news.  There are ideas that US production might not be super strong due to disease such as rust to offset the demand losses.  Temperatures should average near to below normal this week and there are forecasts for scattered showers.  Most of the western Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high.  Areas east of the Mississippi River have been very dry for the last month or more.  Demand for Corn in world markets remains moderate to strong.  Oats were lower.
Overnight News:  Mexico bought 122,947 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed to down.  Support is at 417, 414, and 411 December, and resistance is at 431, 434, and 442 December.  Trends in Oats are down.  Support is at 307, 301, and 295 December, and resistance is at 316, 320, and 324 December.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and both products were lower yesterday on no indications that China was changing its trade policies and on forecasts for a little rain to be seen in the Midwest this weekend.  Cool and dry weather has been seen recently in the Midwest.  The dry weather could hurt pod fill and bean size, but rains were reported over the weekend and more are forecast for this week that would help maintain size and moisture.   China has not bought US Soybeans yet and traders are worried that demand for the new crop will be a lot less this year. Good growing conditions continue in the Midwest with cool and mostly dry weather in the forecast.  Prices are still higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons.  Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America due to the Trump tariff regime.
Overnight News:
Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are down.  Support is at 1002, 995, and 981 November, and resistance is at 1024, 1029, and  1036 November.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down.  Support is at 274.00, 270.00, and 266.00 October, and resistance is at 285.00, 289.00, and 293.00 October.  Trends in Soybean Oil are down.  Support is at 4840, 4740, and 4680 October, with resistance at 5070, 5110, and 5170 October.
\PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments:   Palm Oil futures were lower yesterday with the price action in Chicago and despite strong export demand.  Export demand is expected to be less down the road.  There was talk that India will soon be buying a lot with festivals coming soon.  Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around.  Canola was lower with Chicago Soybeans.  Concerns remain about demand potential.  The Canadian government is moving now to support farmers in the face of the Chinese demand loss and also in the face of the Trump tariffs.  Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down.  Support is at 602.00, 596.00, and 590.00 November, with resistance at 630.00, 640.00, and 653.00 November.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down.  Support is at 4340, 4200, and 4130 December, with resistance at 4430, 4480, and 4530 December.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sep 23
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct          1072.50    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Nov          1077.50    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Dec          1080.00    -15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1080.00    -17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1062.50    -15.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct           1077.50    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Nov           1082.50    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Dec           1085.00    -15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1085.00    -17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1067.50    -15.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct           1060.00    -12.50       Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct           1025.00    -07.50       Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct            4,340.00  -100.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct            479.00     +02.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.1965)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 206,400 lots, or 8.00 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
Nov-25     3,909     3,909     3,853     3,878     3,911     3,876       -35   129,986   214,172
Jan-26     3,899     3,900     3,847     3,871     3,908     3,870       -38    63,097   115,620
Mar-26     3,912     3,912     3,853     3,877     3,912     3,872       -40     6,589    31,763
May-26     3,951     3,951     3,897     3,920     3,949     3,911       -38     2,068     7,805
Jul-26     3,956     3,956     3,901     3,924     3,954     3,917       -37     4,385     7,567
Sep-26     3,964     3,964     3,912     3,932     3,961     3,927       -34       275       673
Corn
Turnover: 865,556 lots, or 18.61 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
Nov-25     2,144     2,165     2,138     2,158     2,163     2,151       -12   564,657   761,736
Jan-26     2,135     2,142     2,125     2,134     2,148     2,134       -14   221,567   488,526
Mar-26     2,146     2,155     2,139     2,148     2,159     2,146       -13    40,208   224,031
May-26     2,210     2,213     2,200     2,204     2,218     2,207       -11    21,022    94,617
Jul-26     2,222     2,225     2,215     2,220     2,231     2,220       -11    17,066    42,591
Sep-26     2,238     2,239     2,232     2,236     2,247     2,235       -12     1,036     1,694
Soymeal
Turnover: 3,263,712 lots, or 95.10 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.         Vol        Open
                                                  Settle                                    Interest
Nov-25     2,995     2,995     2,873     2,893     3,003     2,922       -81     167,642     514,370
Dec-25     3,040     3,040     2,922     2,943     3,048     2,968       -80      19,250     139,311
Jan-26     3,013     3,015     2,907     2,928     3,030     2,954       -76   2,372,830   2,007,056
Mar-26     2,943     2,947     2,877     2,895     2,968     2,906       -62     116,002     341,931
May-26     2,770     2,770     2,720     2,733     2,784     2,739       -45     521,433   1,013,819
Jul-26     2,762     2,762     2,715     2,727     2,776     2,736       -40      30,957     132,464
Aug-26     2,877     2,877     2,827     2,839     2,887     2,843       -44      11,354      28,510
Sep-26     2,885     2,885     2,829     2,843     2,893     2,847       -46      24,244      37,343
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,126,161 lots, or 10.21 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.         Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                  Interest
Oct-25     9,210     9,210     8,802     8,920     9,244     8,948      -296       1,062       557
Nov-25     9,264     9,264     8,942     9,034     9,278     9,052      -226      15,836    17,428
Dec-25     9,278     9,278     8,940     9,036     9,292     9,072      -220       3,888     1,628
Jan-26     9,282     9,294     8,946     9,054     9,326     9,086      -240   1,021,148   387,927
Feb-26     9,290     9,290     8,924     9,022     9,276     9,078      -198          78     1,484
Mar-26     9,228     9,234     8,896     9,004     9,276     9,008      -268         176       751
Apr-26     9,128     9,128     8,830     8,922     9,216     8,938      -278          99        94
May-26     9,108     9,108     8,738     8,856     9,120     8,866      -254      83,016    84,641
Jun-26     8,990     8,990     8,660     8,740     9,002     8,762      -240          63       117
Jul-26     8,800     8,800     8,578     8,650     8,894     8,648      -246          87       168
Aug-26     8,726     8,726     8,518     8,580     8,834     8,574      -260          24        55
Sep-26     8,776     8,776     8,398     8,480     8,768     8,520      -248         684       548
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 971,945 lots, or 78.71 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
Nov-25     8,354     8,354     8,028     8,096     8,376     8,128      -248    17,853    14,983
Dec-25     8,408     8,408     8,078     8,140     8,402     8,178      -224     2,671     7,008
Jan-26     8,310     8,320     8,018     8,086     8,348     8,136      -212   817,864   545,909
Mar-26     8,286     8,286     7,972     8,032     8,282     8,096      -186       248     1,667
May-26     8,042     8,042     7,766     7,848     8,066     7,860      -206   131,896   224,190
Jul-26     8,026     8,026     7,740     7,814     8,026     7,868      -158       454       680
Aug-26     8,000     8,000     7,766     7,802     8,036     7,852      -184        67        70
Sep-26     8,012     8,012     7,712     7,790     8,000     7,804      -196       892       811
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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