Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Current Account at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., Fed Bowman Speech at 8:00 A.M., S&P Global Composite PMI Flash, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flah, and S&P Global Services PMI Flash at 8:45 A.M., Fed Bostic Speech, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index, and Richmond Fed Revenues Index at 9:00 A.M., Fed Chair Powell Speech at 11:35 A.M., 2-Year Note Auction and Money Supply at 12:00 P.M., API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M., and UN General Assembly News & Speeches throughout the day.
Wholesale boneless/skinless chicken prices rallied sharply in the first half of the year. The market reached a record high of $2.77 Lb. in late May, and was 52% higher than the previous year, but in late April the market had been 58% higher than the previous year. The market has been in decline for 3 consecutive weeks, with the previous week’s average wholesale price quoted at $1.65/Lb. down from the May high, and 17% less than a year ago. Seasonal trends are bearish into late November, and a seasonal bull market to be underway by late December.
Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
Southern Midwest Harvest Paused Temporarily; WARMTH/Dryness Resume 6-10 Day Period:
The Central US forecast is consistent with prior runs and viewed as broadly favorable. Soaking rainfall across AR, TN, KT, and the Ohio River Valley works to replenish moisture ahead of SRW planting as well as keep the Mississippi River levels above low thresholds into Oct 6th . The return of widespread dryness after Thursday triggers a relatively speedy pace of harvesting nationwide. Surplus soil moisture will remain across the principal HRW Belt over the next two weeks. A significant jump in soil moisture occurs across key SRW areas of AR, TN, KY and parts of IN/OH. The intensity and timing of the coming precipitation in the mid-South and Southern Midwest are ideal. Whether droughtis solved elsewhere across the E Midwest before early spring will be determined by winter snowpack.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Stays Trapped Between Moving Averages; Peak Harvest Due in October:
Corn ended the week of session lows. Support Continues to be found at Dec CBOT’s 50-and-100-day moving averages look to cross at $4.23-$4.25next week. ARC’s bet is that the full replenishment of cash markets keeps strong resistance in place, and catch-up sales are recommended above $4.25. The US harvest this week is 11% complete, right at average, and some 4 Bil Bu will be gathered in the first half of October alone. Supply uncertainty soon fades, and the market after mid-Oct must contend with larger competition for world market share – which will be compounded by Argentina’s need for US dollars and aggressive fob offers over the next 40 days. A bullish surprise is needed in both USDA’s Sep Stocks on September 30th and Oct WASDE on October 9th reports to sustain rallies. ARC views corn as caught between $3.90-$4.30 until South America’s summer climate is better understood in Nov-Dec. Rallies will be sold indefinitely.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Cash Market Replenishment Holding Resistance-Sales Advised Above $4.25. The Corn & Ethanol Report 09/23/2025
We kickoff the day with Current Account at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., Fed Bowman Speech at 8:00 A.M., S&P Global Composite PMI Flash, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flah, and S&P Global Services PMI Flash at 8:45 A.M., Fed Bostic Speech, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index, and Richmond Fed Revenues Index at 9:00 A.M., Fed Chair Powell Speech at 11:35 A.M., 2-Year Note Auction and Money Supply at 12:00 P.M., API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M., and UN General Assembly News & Speeches throughout the day.
Wholesale boneless/skinless chicken prices rallied sharply in the first half of the year. The market reached a record high of $2.77 Lb. in late May, and was 52% higher than the previous year, but in late April the market had been 58% higher than the previous year. The market has been in decline for 3 consecutive weeks, with the previous week’s average wholesale price quoted at $1.65/Lb. down from the May high, and 17% less than a year ago. Seasonal trends are bearish into late November, and a seasonal bull market to be underway by late December.
Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
Southern Midwest Harvest Paused Temporarily; WARMTH/Dryness Resume 6-10 Day Period:
The Central US forecast is consistent with prior runs and viewed as broadly favorable. Soaking rainfall across AR, TN, KT, and the Ohio River Valley works to replenish moisture ahead of SRW planting as well as keep the Mississippi River levels above low thresholds into Oct 6th . The return of widespread dryness after Thursday triggers a relatively speedy pace of harvesting nationwide. Surplus soil moisture will remain across the principal HRW Belt over the next two weeks. A significant jump in soil moisture occurs across key SRW areas of AR, TN, KY and parts of IN/OH. The intensity and timing of the coming precipitation in the mid-South and Southern Midwest are ideal. Whether droughtis solved elsewhere across the E Midwest before early spring will be determined by winter snowpack.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Stays Trapped Between Moving Averages; Peak Harvest Due in October:
Corn ended the week of session lows. Support Continues to be found at Dec CBOT’s 50-and-100-day moving averages look to cross at $4.23-$4.25next week. ARC’s bet is that the full replenishment of cash markets keeps strong resistance in place, and catch-up sales are recommended above $4.25. The US harvest this week is 11% complete, right at average, and some 4 Bil Bu will be gathered in the first half of October alone. Supply uncertainty soon fades, and the market after mid-Oct must contend with larger competition for world market share – which will be compounded by Argentina’s need for US dollars and aggressive fob offers over the next 40 days. A bullish surprise is needed in both USDA’s Sep Stocks on September 30th and Oct WASDE on October 9th reports to sustain rallies. ARC views corn as caught between $3.90-$4.30 until South America’s summer climate is better understood in Nov-Dec. Rallies will be sold indefinitely.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374