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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Softs Report 09/19/2025

By On September 19, 2025 - 9:22 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
COTTON
General Comments:   Cotton was lower yesterday and fell back into a support area on the daily charts.  USDA made few changes to the US production and supply and demand estimates, and the changes made were mostly very small.  Production was estimated at 13.224 million bales and ending stock were unchanged at 3.60 million bales.  USDA did lower stocks levels for the world market, mostly by cutting major importer stocks.  USDA showed improved conditions in its reports last week.  There are still ideas that growing conditions are generally good.  There are still reports of good weather in Texas and into the Southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around.  The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to up.  Support is at 65.80, 64.30, and 63.00 December, with resistance of 67.80, 68.90 and 69.50 December.
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday as the weather is considered good for production here and in Brazil and Mexico.  Trends are mixed after the price action.  Development conditions are good in Florida and in Brazil now with daily rounds of showers in Florida and dry weather in Brazil.  The poor production potential for the crops comes from early dry weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida and closed near the lows of the week producers to lose trees.  Brazil production potential got hurt by cold and dry weather seen earlier in the year.
Overnight News:  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 239.00, 230.00, and 227.00 November, with resistance at 255.00, 261.00, and 274.00 November.
COFFEE
General Comments:  Both markets were a little higher yesterday after trading sharply lower on Wednesday.  There are still reduced deliverable supplies for both exchanges as commercials have taken the supplies instead of buying in cash markets.  The lack of deliverable stocks in both markets and the lack of deliveries has supported the futures market.  Reductions in deliverable stocks are starting to abate.  Rains will be needed in September to improve the outlook for next year’s arabica crop in Brazil, which has been impacted by dry weather and cold snaps.  Brazil is offering much less coffee into the world market and Vietnamese offers are down now with the harvest selling completed.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 330.63 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down.  Support is at 368.00, 366.00, and 364.00 December, and resistance is at 381.00, 393.00 and 408.00 December.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 4350, 4250, and 4100 November, with resistance at 4650, 4960, and 4990 November.
SUGAR
General Comments:  New York and London were lower for the third day yesterday.  The marketz moved tzo new lows for the move.  The Brazil production could be less, in part due to a recent freeze event and in part to reports of less sucrose in the cane.  Ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue.  The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions.  Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong.  The outlook for cane crops in India and Thailand remain solid with reports of good rains this year, while Brazilian cane  continue to favor producing sugar over ethanol.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down.  Support is at 1530, 1500, and 1470 March and resistance is at 1640, 1660, and 1680 March.  Trends in London are down.  Support is at 450.00, 439.00, and 433.00 December, with resistance at 459.00, 463.00, and 470.00 December.
COCOA
General Comments:  New York and London were both lower yesterday as demand concerns in West Africa continue and the US Dollar turned weaker.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America, but African producers are concerned about potential losses now.  The market feels that there is less demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana and the lack of demand is expected to continue.  Ecuador is expected to become the second largest producer of Cocoa, replacing Ghana on the list.  ADMISI noted that chocolate maker Mondelez last week estimated that the pod count in Africa was 7% above the five-year average and much higher than last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down.  Support is at 7150, 7100, and 6540 December, with resistance at 7690, 8050, and 8140 December.  Trends in London are mixed to down.  Support is at 4930, 4700, and 4510 December, with resistance at 5290, 5350, and 5500 December.
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