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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 09/19/2025

By On September 19, 2025 - 9:25 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Sep 18
    For the week ended Sep 11, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
   The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
               wk’s net chg                  total
               in commitments             commitments      undlvd sales
                 this yr    next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr
wheat              377.5       10.0   13100.6   10869.6   5477.0     24.9
  hrw               60.6        0.0    5310.8    2516.0   2275.3      2.5
  srw               54.4       10.0    1843.4    1783.5    651.0     22.4
  hrs               87.4        0.0    3259.6    3656.8   1311.3      0.0
  white            162.7        0.0    2464.5    2749.1   1135.3      0.0
  durum             12.5        0.0     222.2     164.2    104.1      0.0
corn              1231.6        0.0   23833.1   14208.6  21589.9     93.6
soybeans           923.0        2.3   10277.2   15992.6   9206.5      2.3
soymeal             31.2      151.3   15704.9   13885.8   1392.8   3160.2
soyoil              22.4        0.0    1118.9     280.3     48.0     24.8
upland cotton      186.1       19.0    3972.8    4871.2   3188.9    236.2
pima cotton          5.2        0.0     106.0     140.2     63.0      0.0
sorghum            100.5        0.0     358.1     616.3    353.4      0.0
barley              -0.4        0.0      48.5      21.7     28.7      0.0
rice                 8.4        0.0     682.1     873.6    445.3      0.0
WHEAT
General Comments:   Wheat was a little lower yesterday on weaker export sales and as reports of weaker Russian and European prices are still around.  Russian sources told wire services that producers there are set to reduce offers and production due to low prices and problems with the government.  USDA cut US ending stocks to 844 million bushels and cut world ending stocks to 262.4 million tons.  It remains too dry in Winter Wheat areas and too wet in Spring Wheat areas of Russia.  A French government report showed plenty of production but lower quality.  Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains but Canada has been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year.  Russian Black Sea prices have been dropping as late yields have improved.  Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good and Australia estimates that production this year will be high.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 511, 505 and 499 December, with resistance at 532, 535, and 543 December.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 502, 496, and 490 December, with resistance at 520, 523, and 529 December. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
RICE:
General Comments   Rice was lower yesterday and the market remained in a trading range.  USDA issued bearish reports on Friday.  Production was higher at 208.777 million cwt on increased harvested area and a slight reduction in yields.  Ending stocks were increased to 53.4 million cwt on more production and less demand, especially for export.  The harvest is wrapping up in Texas and southern Louisiana.  Crop condition ratings were mostly good last week.  Chart trends are mixed on the charts.  The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.  Louisiana reports good but not great yields and quality.  Texas reports average to below average field and milling yields.  Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.  Harvest is increasing in Mississippi and Arkansas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down.  Support is at 1124, 1112, and 1100 November and resistance is at 1168, 1181, and 1201 November.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower yesterday and trends are mixed as the crop is maturing and the harvest is starting to expand.  Ideas are that futures have created a low as prices were able to rally on no news or bad news.  The USDA reports were negative for futures as production was increased to 16.814 billion bushels on increased planted area and a decrease in yield estimates.  Ending stocks were increased to 2.110 billion bushels and world stocks were decreased to 284.2 million tons.  There are ideas that US production might not be super strong due to disease such as rust to offset the demand losses.  Temperatures should average near to above normal this week and it should be mostly dry.  Most of the western Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high.  Areas east of the Mississippi River have been very dry for the last month or more.  Demand for Corn in world markets remains moderate to strong.  Oats were a little higher.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 206,460 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed to up.  Support is at 420, 417, and 414 December, and resistance is at 431, 434, and 442 December.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 318, 313, and 307 December, and resistance is at 329, 338, and 344 December.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and both products were lower yesterday on increased production estimates from USDA seen on Friday and on forecasts for a little rain to be seen in the Midwest this weekend.  Soybean Oil closed a little higher.  Ideas are that futures have created a low as prices were able to rally on no news or bad news.  USDA estimated US Soybean production at 4.301 billion bushels, from 4.292 billion last month.  Yields were little changed at 53.5 bu/acre.  Ending stocks were increased to 300 million bushels for the US but were a little lower for the world at 264.1 million tons.  Cool and dry weather has been seen recently in the Midwest.  The dry weather could hurt pod fill and bean size, but rains this weekend would help maintain size and moisture. A drop in condition ratings by USDA was expected and given as a reason to buy.   China has not bought US Soybeans yet and traders are worried that demand for the new crop will be a lot less this year. Good growing conditions continue in the Midwest with cool and mostly dry weather in the forecast.  Prices are still higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons.  Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America.
Overnight News:
Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up.  Support is at 1035, 1022, and 1012 November, and resistance is at 1055, 1063, and  1074 November.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.  Support is at 274.00, 270.00, and 266.00 October, and resistance is at 290.00, 293.00, and 295.00 October.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 5050, 4940, and 4840 October, with resistance at 5340, 5440, and 5600 October.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments:   Palm Oil futures were higher last week and today, witzh the rally today based on strong export demand.  Demand for export has been strong to start the month.  There was talk that India will soon be buying a lot with festivals coming soon.  Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around.  Canola was lower with Chicago Soybeans.  Concerns remain about demand potential.  The Canadian government is moving now to support farmers in the face of the Chinese demand loss and also in the face of the Trump tariffs.  Trends are up on the daily charts and are turning up on the weekly charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 610.00, 602.00, and 596.00 November, with resistance at 640.00, 653.00, and 661.00 November.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up.  Support is at 4380, 4340, and 4300 November, with resistance at 4530, 4590, and 4650 November.
Trends are mixed to down.  Support is at 1124, 1112, and 1100 November and resistance is at 1168, 1181, and 1201 November.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sep 19
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Sep          1082.50    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct          1085.00     00.00      Unquoted   –        –
Nov          1087.50    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Dec          1092.50    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1097.50    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1075.00     00.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Sep           1087.50    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct           1090.00     00.00      Unquoted   –        –
Nov           1092.50    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Dec           1097.50    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1102.50    -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1080.00     00.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Sep           1067.50    -12.50      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Sep           1027.50    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Sep            4,400.00   -40.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Sep            477.00      00.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.205)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 148,655 lots, or 5.81 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
Nov-25     3,906     3,914     3,896     3,904     3,892     3,906        14   104,707   221,619
Jan-26     3,901     3,910     3,894     3,902     3,893     3,903        10    33,834   118,278
Mar-26     3,907     3,916     3,901     3,906     3,900     3,909         9     5,046    31,279
May-26     3,943     3,954     3,926     3,944     3,940     3,948         8     2,054     7,604
Jul-26     3,950     3,958     3,944     3,948     3,944     3,952         8     2,946     7,016
Sep-26     3,960     3,968     3,956     3,957     3,953     3,961         8        68       478
Corn
Turnover: 468,980 lots, or 10.19 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
Nov-25     2,178     2,179     2,166     2,168     2,170     2,171         1   304,896   811,835
Jan-26     2,165     2,168     2,156     2,158     2,162     2,161        -1   111,954   449,458
Mar-26     2,173     2,177     2,165     2,167     2,171     2,171         0    28,560   207,551
May-26     2,229     2,233     2,224     2,225     2,229     2,228        -1    10,191    87,505
Jul-26     2,240     2,244     2,236     2,237     2,241     2,239        -2    12,792    36,369
Sep-26     2,179     2,255     2,179     2,253     2,254     2,234       -20       587     1,042
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,200,814 lots, or 35.63 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open
                                                  Settle                                  Interest
Nov-25     2,968     2,990     2,955     2,985     2,968     2,975         7    63,022     517,587
Dec-25     3,011     3,037     3,002     3,030     3,015     3,024         9    12,458     141,144
Jan-26     2,995     3,021     2,983     3,014     3,001     3,004         3   895,606   2,020,535
Mar-26     2,932     2,963     2,928     2,958     2,942     2,949         7    44,750     342,987
May-26     2,768     2,792     2,762     2,786     2,775     2,777         2   158,508   1,000,303
Jul-26     2,754     2,779     2,750     2,776     2,760     2,768         8    15,830     139,955
Aug-26     2,874     2,896     2,872     2,893     2,886     2,885        -1     5,109      31,483
Sep-26     2,882     2,901     2,877     2,899     2,889     2,889         0     5,531      27,308
Palm Oil
Turnover: 588,640 lots, or 54.94 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
Oct-25     9,186     9,280     9,186     9,216     9,254     9,242       -12       710     1,144
Nov-25     9,256     9,324     9,250     9,264     9,286     9,292         6     7,791    14,626
Dec-25     9,292     9,354     9,284     9,300     9,320     9,318        -2     1,127     1,448
Jan-26     9,314     9,380     9,306     9,316     9,344     9,340        -4   554,657   411,814
Feb-26     9,300     9,332     9,300     9,310     9,312     9,318         6        12     1,491
Mar-26     9,248     9,310     9,248     9,266     9,318     9,280       -38        42       734
Apr-26     9,214     9,248     9,214     9,248     9,246     9,230       -16         4        97
May-26     9,118     9,172     9,106     9,114     9,138     9,138         0    24,214    90,814
Jun-26     9,032     9,052     9,008     9,008     9,042     9,032       -10        23       104
Jul-26     8,932     8,934     8,930     8,934     8,922     8,930         8         6       169
Aug-26     8,864     8,864     8,864     8,864     8,872     8,864        -8         1        51
Sep-26     8,814     8,844     8,784     8,792     8,844     8,812       -32        53       169
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 378,156 lots, or 3.14 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
Nov-25     8,294     8,388     8,294     8,344     8,308     8,350        42     5,249    15,783
Dec-25     8,344     8,428     8,336     8,380     8,346     8,390        44     1,273     6,592
Jan-26     8,298     8,382     8,282     8,328     8,306     8,336        30   331,651   571,426
Mar-26     8,228     8,300     8,228     8,264     8,276     8,276         0       144     1,626
May-26     8,034     8,100     8,018     8,052     8,052     8,060         8    39,543   224,213
Jul-26     7,990     8,046     7,990     8,024     7,998     8,014        16       141       507
Aug-26     8,008     8,046     8,008     8,028     8,016     8,024         8         8        57
Sep-26     7,974     8,032     7,974     7,990     7,988     7,992         4       147       362
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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