Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Continuing Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, Philly Fed Business Conditions, Philly Fed CAPEX Index, Philly Fed
Employment, Philly Fed New Orders, and Philly Fed Prices Paid at 7:30 A.M., CB Leading Index MoM at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M. 10-Year TIPS Auction at 12:00 P.M., Net Long-term TIC Flows, Foreign Bond Investment, and Overall Net Capital Flows at 3:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:00 P.M.
The Census Bureau reported that building permits in August fell 3.1%, after falling by a like amount in July. Compared to a year ago, August building permits issued were down 11% at 1.312 million, the lowest monthly figure since June 2020 – near the pandemic low. Single-family permits fell 2.2%, while permits for buildings with 5 or more units dropped by 6.7%. Regionally, permits in the Northeast were down 3.2%, the Midwest fell by 9.5%. August housing starts fell by 8.5% from July and 6% from last year at a 3-month low of 1.307 million. This was also the 4th lowest figure since June 2020, and well below trade estimates. Single-family starts fell b 7%, whyile multi-family starts fell by 11%, while the West rose by 30%, and the Northeast increased by 9%.
Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
Central US Forecast National Rainfall next 10-Days; Threat to Harvest Progress Limited:
The major forecasting models have trended wetter across the mid-South and eastern Midwest, with rainfall accumulation of 1+ “ projected across all but OH & PA into Sep 26th . Much of this rain falls across the E Midwest & mid-South Sep 22-27, and so the coming pattern is a mix of rain, sun and relative warmth. Incoming moisture will add to pod/kernel weights, but the primary benefit will be that of moisture rejuvenation across the US SRW Belt – where it’s desperately needed. Dryness resumes across the Central US after Sep 27. This allows harvest to begin in a timely fashion at northern latitudes. Frost risks remain near zero as lows across the Dakotas, MN, and WI stay perched in the upper 40’s/low 50’s into the end of September. Soil moisture restoration is underway.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Dec CBOT Drops to Test 100-Day MA; Supply Pressure Unavoidable:
Dec CBOT corn corrected slightly but remains unwilling to trade decisively below it’s 100-day moving average $4.27. The addition of risk premium amid acute E Midwest dryness in Aug/early Sep is logical, but ARC’s work on acreage suggests that a US harvest of 16.3 Bil Bu is unavoidable, as well as supply & demand is needed and rallies harm future consumption potential. US corn weekly export sales must average 44+ Mil Bu each week into July to meet USDA’s annual forecast. The absence of consistent daily sales since late August is noticeable. Speculative short covering ends once US yield is better defined. The current rally is based on late summer dryness – how many bushels were lost of a record large US corn crop. A few rain events in the last half of a record large US corn crop. A few rain events in the last half of August would have produced a US corn crop yield of 190 BPA plus. Today, ARC predicts the US yield range between 182-187 BPA. Rallies above $4.40 spot CBOT require major South American weather adversity.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Behind the Curve Again. The Corn & Ethanol Report 09/18/2025
We kickoff the day with Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Continuing Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, Philly Fed Business Conditions, Philly Fed CAPEX Index, Philly Fed
Employment, Philly Fed New Orders, and Philly Fed Prices Paid at 7:30 A.M., CB Leading Index MoM at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M. 10-Year TIPS Auction at 12:00 P.M., Net Long-term TIC Flows, Foreign Bond Investment, and Overall Net Capital Flows at 3:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:00 P.M.
The Census Bureau reported that building permits in August fell 3.1%, after falling by a like amount in July. Compared to a year ago, August building permits issued were down 11% at 1.312 million, the lowest monthly figure since June 2020 – near the pandemic low. Single-family permits fell 2.2%, while permits for buildings with 5 or more units dropped by 6.7%. Regionally, permits in the Northeast were down 3.2%, the Midwest fell by 9.5%. August housing starts fell by 8.5% from July and 6% from last year at a 3-month low of 1.307 million. This was also the 4th lowest figure since June 2020, and well below trade estimates. Single-family starts fell b 7%, whyile multi-family starts fell by 11%, while the West rose by 30%, and the Northeast increased by 9%.
Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
Central US Forecast National Rainfall next 10-Days; Threat to Harvest Progress Limited:
The major forecasting models have trended wetter across the mid-South and eastern Midwest, with rainfall accumulation of 1+ “ projected across all but OH & PA into Sep 26th . Much of this rain falls across the E Midwest & mid-South Sep 22-27, and so the coming pattern is a mix of rain, sun and relative warmth. Incoming moisture will add to pod/kernel weights, but the primary benefit will be that of moisture rejuvenation across the US SRW Belt – where it’s desperately needed. Dryness resumes across the Central US after Sep 27. This allows harvest to begin in a timely fashion at northern latitudes. Frost risks remain near zero as lows across the Dakotas, MN, and WI stay perched in the upper 40’s/low 50’s into the end of September. Soil moisture restoration is underway.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Dec CBOT Drops to Test 100-Day MA; Supply Pressure Unavoidable:
Dec CBOT corn corrected slightly but remains unwilling to trade decisively below it’s 100-day moving average $4.27. The addition of risk premium amid acute E Midwest dryness in Aug/early Sep is logical, but ARC’s work on acreage suggests that a US harvest of 16.3 Bil Bu is unavoidable, as well as supply & demand is needed and rallies harm future consumption potential. US corn weekly export sales must average 44+ Mil Bu each week into July to meet USDA’s annual forecast. The absence of consistent daily sales since late August is noticeable. Speculative short covering ends once US yield is better defined. The current rally is based on late summer dryness – how many bushels were lost of a record large US corn crop. A few rain events in the last half of a record large US corn crop. A few rain events in the last half of August would have produced a US corn crop yield of 190 BPA plus. Today, ARC predicts the US yield range between 182-187 BPA. Rallies above $4.40 spot CBOT require major South American weather adversity.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374