A Great Day for Oil Independence. The Energy Report 09/18/2025

 Let Freedom Ring!  President Trump’s Vision of US Energy Independence is working as evidenced by yesterday’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) Status Report.
The report showed not only did crude imports of crude oil fell in the latest week to the lowest in records going back to 2001 but US oil exports surged to 5.277 million barrels a day close to an all-time record and the highest since December 2023.
This realty along with President Trumps pressuring NATO to stop buying Russian oil and threatening tariffs on Russia China and Turkey is making Russia think and today says it is planning to reduce its budget’s reliance on oil revenues which must mean a tax hike may be coming for the Russian people.
Reuters reported that The Russian Finance Ministry on Thursday announced a new measure it said was aimed at shielding the state budget from oil price fluctuations and Western sanctions targeting Russian energy exports.
Under the new initiative, set to be implemented next year, the government will lower the cut-off price for oil above which oil revenues go into the fiscal reserve fund to try to ensure that the fund is sufficiently replenished.
Larry Kudlow once described Russia’s economy as a big gas station and Statista cites Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service showing oil and gas made up about 20% of GDP from 2017–2024, with some quarterly variation. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (March 2024) confirms this average, noting it depends on price cycles and sanctions.
Russia is also losing some volume over the fact that the Middle East, countries are gradually shifting away from using oil for power generation, which is leading to a decline in regional crude consumption.
Ukraine also understands that Russia ability to keep the war going depends on oil revenue and Ukraine’s determination continues as its military reported an overnight strike on a Russian oil refinery, giving a modest boost to oil prices as the US.
At the same time, Kuwait’s oil minister Tariq Suleiman Al-Roumi reported an anticipated increase in global oil demand, particularly in Asia, due to possible sanctions on Russian oil and rate cuts in Asia. He noted that oil prices may be affected if such sanctions are implemented.
He should also point to more demand as the US cut rates by a quarter and are embarking on a rate-cutting cycle with two more rate cuts penciled in for this year.
The EIA also pointed out that US Refineries are working hard to make up the diesel deficit. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs just hit 16.4 million barrels per day for the week ending September 12, 2025.
That’s a drop of 394 thousand barrels per day compared to the week before, but refineries are still strong for this time of year operating at an impressive 93.3% of their capacity.
Refineries focused on distillate production over gasoline production; although a bit lower, gasoline output came in at 9.4 million barrels per day, while distillate fuel production also dipped by 274 thousand barrels, averaging out at 5 million barrels per day. The numbers tell a story of a bustling, resilient industry adapting in real time.
That led to a 4 million barrels increase in distillate inventories, but we are still about 8% under the five-year average

The EIA reported that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell by 9.3 million barrels last week to 415.4 million barrels, about 5% below the five-year seasonal average. Gasoline stocks were also down by 2.3 million barrels, making them 1% lower than their typical five-year average.
And demand also was pretty impressive on the four-week moving average it showed that total product demand was 20.7 million barrels a day which is up about 1.7 million barrels for the same year .

Motor gasoline products supplied average 8.9 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, nudging up by 0.5% compared to this time last year. Distillate fuel product demand came in at 3.7 million barrels a day—just a slight dip of 1.8% from the previous year. Meanwhile, jet fuel product supplied soared, rising by 1.1% year over year for the same period. These numbers highlight a dynamic and resilient energy sector keeping pace with shifting demands.
In fact the increase in distillate inventories was seen to take the momentum out of the entire complex as the market is in shoulder season and there are still concerns about global oil demand the continued pessimism about the global economy still has some people predicting an oil price glut but with the massive crude oil draw this week one has to question that ideology. Yet from a trading standpoint we’re in a trading range until we are not in other words, we have to continue respecting the trading range of the market until we get a clear breakout.
In the meantime, natural gas continues to be impressive it’s it is trying to build the base just around the $3 area. Global demand expectations continue to be high as we expect to see demand for natural gas to break records once again.
Natural gas intelligence reports that New Fortress Mexico LNG To Supply Puerto Rico with Natural Gas for Seven Years: New Fortress Energy Inc. (NFE) has reached an agreement with the government of Puerto Rico to supply the island’s power system with natural gas for a period of seven years.
Demand expectations continue to surge in the US production capabilities continue to rise which should be very good for US producers the only thing that is let’s say there’s higher prices and hopefully that’s going to come as we look further down the curve of course whether in natural areas continues to be the final say as we continue to look at this very optimistic fundamental outlook.
Fox Weather is reporting that Tropical Storm Gabrielle ‘struggling’ over Atlantic but still forecast to become hurricane
Tropical Storm Gabrielle, which had been known as Invest 92L and then Tropical Depression Seven, formed on Wednesday after a weekslong lull in tropical activity as we continue through the latter half of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
“Gabrielle continues to struggle and consists of a swirl of low-level clouds with patches of deep convection over the northeast and southeast quadrants of the storm,” the NHC said in its latest discussion. “The poor structure is due to westerly vertical wind shear and a significant amount of dry air that is continuously entraining into the circulation.”
The NHC said that atmospheric conditions are expected to remain hostile for further development over the next few days, and Tropical Storm Gabrielle could either “hold steady or lose strength during that time,” the NHC continued. Fox weather also suggests that this comes after a drought of activity in the Atlantic unlike anything we’ve seen in decades so it’s very important that you download the app to keep up with the storm.
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