Softs Report 09/17/2025

MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville

Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Price Futures Group, CBOT
Chicago, IL
(312) 264-4322
jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV
San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher yesterday. USDA made few changes to the US production and supply and demand estimates, and the changes made were mostly very small. Production was estimated at 13.224 million bales and ending stock were unchanged at 3.60 million bales. USDA did lower stocks levels for the world market, mostly by cutting major importer stocks. USDA showed improved conditions in its reports last week. There are still ideas that growing conditions are generally good. There are still reports of good weather in Texas and into the Southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around. The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up. Support is at 65.80, 64.30, and 63.00 December, with resistance of 68.90, 69.50 and 69.90 December.

This Week Last Week Last Year Average
Cotton Bolls Opening 50 40 53 49
Cotton Harvested 9 8 10 8
This Week Last Week Last Year Average
Cotton Bolls Opening 50 40 53 49
Cotton Harvested 9 8 10 8
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 4 10 34 42 10
Cotton Last Week 2 9 35 46 8
Cotton Last Year 10 16 35 34 5

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were higher yesterday as the market needs to see some new supplies but as the weather is considered good for production here and in Brazil and Mexico. Development conditions are good in Florida and in Brazil now with daily rounds of showers in Florida and dry weather in Brazil. The poor production potential for the crops comes from early dry weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida and closed near the lows of the week producers to lose trees. Brazil production potential got hurt by cold and dry weather seen earlier in the year.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up. Support is at 240.00, 230.00, and 227.00 November, with resistance at 261.00, 274.00, and 286.00 November.

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets were a little lower yesterday after trading sharply higher on Monday. There are still reduced deliverable supplies for both exchanges as commercials have taken the supplies instead of buying in cash markets. The lack of deliverable stocks in both markets and the lack of deliveries has supported the futures market. Reductions in deliverable stocks are starting to abate. Rains will be needed in September to improve the outlook for next year’s arabica crop in Brazil, which has been impacted by dry weather and cold snaps. Brazil is offering much less coffee into the world market and Vietnamese offers are down now with the harvest selling completed.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 344.98 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 10 contracts were delivered against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 880 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 393.00, 389.00, and 366.00 December, and resistance is at 424.00, 430.00 and 436.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4440, 4250, and 4100 November, with resistance at 4980, 5050, and 5110 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday as the US Dollar was weaker. The Brazil production could be less, in part due to a recent freeze event and in part to reports of less sucrose in the cane. Ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong. The outlook for cane crops in India and Thailand remain solid with reports of good rains this year, while Brazilian cane continue to favor producing sugar over ethanol. South Africa’s sugar farmers are having trouble from U.S. tariffs and from cheap imports from countries including neighboring Eswatini.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 1530, 1500, and 1470 March and resistance is at 1660, 1700, and 1720 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 454.00, 450.00, and 439.00 December, with resistance at 473.00, 476.00, and 481.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were both lower yesterday as demand concerns in West Africa continue and the US Dollar turned weaker. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America, but African producers are concerned about potential losses now. The market feels that there is less demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana and the lack of demand is expected to continue. Ecuador is expected to become the second largest producer of Cocoa, replacing Ghana on the list. ADMISI noted that chocolate maker Mondelez last week estimated that the pod count in Africa was 7% above the five-year average and much higher than last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 7150, 7100, and 6540 December, with resistance at 8050, 8140, and 8500
December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4930, 4700, and 4510 December, with resistance at 5350, 5500, and 5650 September.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale purchase of any securities or futures.
The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322