EA Back Track Flip Flop. The Energy Report 09/16/2025

The IEA says that natural gas production would fall by an average of 9%, or 270 BCM, each year, which is equivalent to the total natural gas production from the whole of Africa today. They say that natural decline rates are becoming steeper: in 2010, natural decline rates led to a 3.9-million-barrel annual drop in production and a 180 BCM annual drop in natural gas production. The sharper natural declines now, compared with the 2010s, reflect the higher reliance on unconventional sources of energy and changes to the mix of conventional production, such as more deep offshore fields and NGLs in a higher supply base.

In fact, the IEA says that most unconventional sources of oil and gas production generally exhibit much faster decline rates than conventional types. The IEA says that if all investment in tight oil and shale gas production were to stop immediately, production would decline by more than 35% within 12 months and a further 15% in the year thereafter. Additionally, the IEA is warning that shale plays in the United States are becoming gassier, raising the overall decline rates as oil-rich fields mature.

Just keep in mind that, if we had heeded the calls by the International Energy Agency years ago to stop investing in oil and gas futures, we would be in a major energy crisis today. I’m glad to see the International Energy Agency is admitting that they were wrong about their call to stop investing in fossil fuels, and I think it will only be a matter of time before they must admit they’re wrong about this massive oil glut that they predicted.

Still with all the trauma we’re still in kind of a trading range today. Yesterday of course we saw the infrastructure in Russia get hit. One of their major refineries could be down for a month. The key thing is is that the refinery situation can be worked around. That’s assuming the Russian energy infrastructure won’t take anymore hits because it will eventually take its toll.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says that President Trump is going to meet with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelinsky soon and that could put more pressure on Russia. The key thing is whether Europe and the G7 will band together to put tough sanctions on Russia and secondary sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil such as India and China. Stay tuned.

Oil inventories today will be key. Last week we saw a bearish report and because we’re in shoulder season we’ll probably see supply increases across the board.

Energy is in a trading range though we do think because of the lack of investment, as we get into winter, we could see a breakout to the upside but in the meantime we have to play the ranges until proven otherwise. We just saw a big run up and these crack spreads showing they’re still concerned about the tight supplies of diesel but we also have to be concerned about the weather. If you need more information on crack spreads, call Phil Flynn 888-264-5665.

The Fox Weather app is reminding us that there are storms developing in the Atlantic that could impact natural gas production in the Gulf of America as well as transportation if the storm continues to develop. Fox Weather reports that Invest 92L may soon become Tropical Storm Gabrielle, while the National Hurricane Center notes a new tropical wave off Africa’s west coast has a low chance of developing in the next week.

Make sure you download the Fox Weather ap to keep up on this storm. You should stay tuned to the Fox Business Network! Invested in you!

Call Phil Flynn to get my trades at 888-264-5665 or email pflynn@pricegroup.com.