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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 09/11/2025

By Jack Scoville On September 11, 2025 - 10:03 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand

The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly corn and soybean production and supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Friday.

U.S. 2025 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)

Average Range USDA August USDA 2024

Corn Production 16,511 16,204-16,764 16,742 14,867

Soybean Production 4,273 4,236-4,347 4,292 4,366

Corn Yield 186.1 182.7-189.0 188.8 179.3

Soybean Yield 53.3 52.9-54.0 53.6 50.7

****

U.S. Stockpiles (millions)

2024-25

Average Range USDA August

Corn 1,308 1,275-1,330 1,305

Soybeans 327 306-335 330

2025-26

Average Range USDA August

Corn 2,022 1,748-2,344 2,117

Soybeans 293 223-347 290

Wheat 862 836-880 869

****

World Stockpiles (million metric tons)

2024-25

Average Range USDA August

Corn 284.4 283.2-286.0 283.1

Soybeans 125.6 124.4-128.0 125.2

Wheat 263.1 262.7-265.0 262.7

2025-26

Average Range USDA August

Corn 282.8 279.7-287.6 282.5

Soybeans 125.4 123.2-127.0 124.9

Wheat 260.8 258.4-263.0 260.1

DJ US Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Sep 11

For the week ended Sep 4, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in

thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,

less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total

commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.

The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1. The

marketing year for rice and cotton began Aug 1. The

marketing year for soymeal and soyoil will begin Oct 1.

For corn, soybeans and sorghum, “this year” is the 2025-2026

marketing year, which began Sep 1, while “last year” is 2024-2025.

Source: USDA

wk’s net change total

in commitments commitments undlvd sales

this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr

wheat 305.4 0.0 12723.1 10652.4 5874.4 14.9

hrw 92.3 0.0 5250.2 2549.0 2445.4 2.5

srw 22.5 0.0 1789.0 1731.8 673.9 12.4

hrs 127.8 0.0 3172.3 3506.1 1396.4 0.0

white 45.2 0.0 2301.8 2710.8 1264.6 0.0

durum 17.5 0.0 209.7 154.7 94.0 0.0

corn 1709.6-a 0.0 22601.4 13361.2 21914.1 93.6

soybeans 1308.1-b 0.0 9354.2 14244.4 9120.6 0.0

soymeal 33.4 324.1 15673.8 13888.6 1598.1 3008.9

soyoil -6.4 0.0 1096.5 233.6 27.7 24.8

upland cotton 129.6 0.0 3786.7 4764.4 3123.3 217.1

pima cotton 1.2 0.0 100.8 126.2 60.2 0.0

sorghum 54.4-c 0.0 257.7 609.8 257.7 0.0

barley 0.0 0.0 48.8 21.7 30.1 0.0

rice 56.9 0.0 716.1 792.5 496.2 0.0

-a: Includes new sales activity for Sep 1-4 which

resulted in a net increase of 539.9 thousand metric tons. Also includes

1169.7 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from

2024-2025.

-b: Includes new sales activity for Sep 1-4 which resulted in a

a net increase of 541.1 thousand metric tons. Also includes

767.0 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from

2024-2025.

-c: Includes new sales activity for Sep 1-4 which resulted in

a net increase of 54.0 thousand metric tons. Also includes

0.4 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from

2024-2025.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 11

Source: CME Group

Contract Quantity Next Trade

Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available

SOYBEAN MEAL September Sep 12, 2025 96 Sep 10, 2025

ROUGH RICE September Sep 12, 2025 33 Sep 10, 2025

CORN September Sep 12, 2025 154 Sep 03, 2025

KC HRW WHEAT September Sep 12, 2025 2 Aug 29, 2025

OATS September Sep 12, 2025 3 Sep 10, 2025

SOYBEAN September Sep 12, 2025 10 Sep 09, 2025

• 11 Sep 2025 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2024/25 TOTAL GRAIN CROP SEEN AT 350.20 MLN TNS VS 345.23 MLN TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – CONAB

• 11 Sep 2025 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2024/25 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 171.47 MLN TNS VS 169.65 MLN TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – CONAB

• 11 Sep 2025 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2024/25 TOTAL CORN CROP SEEN AT 139.67 MLN TNS VS 137.00 MLN TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – CONAB

• 11 Sep 2025 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2024/25 SECOND CORN CROP SEEN AT 112.03 MLN TNS VS 109.56 MLN TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – CONAB

• 11 Sep 2025 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2024/25 CORN EXPORTS SEEN AT 40 MLN TNS VS 40 MLN TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – CONAB

• 11 Sep 2025 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2024/25 SOYBEAN EXPORTS SEEN AT 106.65 MLN TNS VS 106.25 MLN TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – CONAB

• 11 Sep 2025 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2025 WHEAT OUTPUT SEEN AT 7.54 MLN TNS VS 7.81 MLN TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – CONAB

• 11 Sep 2025 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL 2024/25 COTTON (LINT) OUTPUT SEEN AT 4.06 MLN TNS VS 3.93 MLN TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – CONAB

WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat was lower yesterday along with reports of weaker Russian prices. Sovecon in Russia raised production estimates to 86.1 million tons, from 85.4 million in its previous estimate, due to increased Spring wheat production found in the Volga valley region. However, other private analysts question the big production estimates put forward by Sovecon and other large sources and claim they are way too large. The Ruble hs been weaker to help support higher internal prices paid to farmers in Russia. It remains too dry in Winter Wheat areas and too wet in Spring Wheat areas of Russia. A French government report showed plenty of production but lower quality. The Spring Wheat harvest is active and the Winter Wheat harvest is done. Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains but Canada has been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year. Russian Black Sea prices have been dropping as late yields have improved. Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good and Australia estimates that production this year will be high.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 511, 505 and 499 December, with resistance at 527, 535, and 543 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 502, 496, and 490 December, with resistance at 520, 523, and 529 December. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.

RICE:

General Comments Rice was lower yesterday as the light volume trading continued. The harvest is wrapping up in Texas and southern Louisiana. Crop condition ratings were mostly good last week. Chart trends are down on the charts. The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand. Louisiana reports good but not great yields and quality. Texas reports average to below average field and milling yields. Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Harvest is increasing in Mississippi and Arkansas.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1148, 1136, and 1124 November and resistance is at 1181, 1201, and 1229 November.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday as the crop is maturing and despite ideas that USDA will cut back on production estimates later this week in the next round of monthly reports. Ideas are still that supplies will be more than ample for the demand, but the current weather and reports of disease has hurt yield potential. This comes as some private forecasters such as FC Stone, Allendale, and S&P have kept yield estimates extremely high. Ethanol demand was down 6% from last month at 456 million bushels and there are concerns about feed demand moving forward as feeder cattle imports from Mexico have been banned due to reports of screw worm disease in the cattle. There are also ideas that US production might not be super strong due to disease such as rust to offset the demand losses. Temperatures should average near to below normal this week and it should be mostly dry. Most of the western Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high. Areas east of the Mississippi River have been very dry for the last month or more. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. Oats were lower and are now testing recent lows.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up. Support is at 414, 410, and 404 December, and resistance is at 425, 430, and 434 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 319, 313, and 307 December, and resistance is at 329, 338, and 344 December.

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower yesterday, but Soybean Oil was higher. Cool and dry weather has been seen recently in the Midwest. The dry weather could hurt pod fill and bean size. A drop in condition ratings by USDA was expected and given as a reason to buy and traders now anticipate that USDA will cut back on yield estimates in its next round of monthly reports later this week. China has not bought US Soybeans yet and traders are worried that demand for the new crop will be a lot less this year. Good growing conditions continue in the Midwest with cool and mostly dry weather in the forecast. Prices are still higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America.

Overnight News:

Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down. Support is at 1020, 1012, and 1002 November, and resistance is at 1037, 1044, and 1055 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 274.00, 270.00, and 266.00 October, and resistance is at 288.00, 290.00, and 293.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4940, 4840, and 4740 October, with resistance at 5180, 5240, and 5340 October.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA

General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher despite ideas of increasing stocks. Demand for export has been strong to start the month. Futures were also higher today as the increase in ending stocks was not as much as anticipated. There was talk that India will soon be buying a lot with festivals coming soon. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Canola was higher. Concerns remain about demand potential. The Canadian government is moving now to support farmers in the face of the Chinese demand loss and also in the face of the Trump tariffs. Trends are down on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather still around.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 610.00, 602.00, and 596.00 November, with resistance at 636.00, 653.00, and 661.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4380, 4340, and 4300 November, with resistance at 4530, 4590, and 4650 November.

DJ Malaysia’s August Palm Oil Exports 1.32M Tons; Down 0.3%, MPOB Says

Malaysia’s palm oil exports were down 0.3% on month at 1.32 million metric tons in August, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.

The following are details of the August crop data and revised numbers for July, issued by MPOB:

August July Change

On Month

Crude Palm Oil Output 1,855,008 1,812,417 Up 2.35%

Palm Oil Exports 1,324,672 1,328,547 Dn 0.29%

Palm Kernel Oil Exports 110,656 90,028 Up 22.91%

Palm Oil Imports 49,036 61,039 Dn 19.66%

Closing Stocks 2,202,534 2,114,085 Up 4.18%

Crude Palm Oil 1,076,717 1,021,087 Up 5.45%

Processed Palm Oil 1,125,817 1,092,998 Up 3%

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sep 11

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Sep 1085.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –

Oct 1090.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –

Nov/Dec 1100.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –

Jan/Feb/Mar 1102.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –

Apr/May/Jun 1085.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Sep 1090.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –

Oct 1095.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –

Nov/Dec 1105.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –

Jan/Feb/Mar 1107.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –

Apr/May/Jun 1090.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Sep 1067.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Sep 1027.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Sep 4,450.00 +60.00 Unquoted – –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Sep 482.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –

($1=MYR4.22)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 11

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 149,089 lots, or 5.86 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open

Settle Interest

Sep-25 – – – 4,040 4,040 4,040 0 0 63

Nov-25 3,905 3,947 3,905 3,945 3,935 3,926 -9 103,597 209,619

Jan-26 3,919 3,951 3,913 3,948 3,936 3,930 -6 38,104 113,998

Mar-26 3,922 3,956 3,921 3,953 3,938 3,934 -4 4,612 31,795

May-26 3,964 3,996 3,962 3,995 3,983 3,977 -6 1,125 6,538

Jul-26 3,967 4,000 3,965 3,998 3,985 3,981 -4 1,651 5,857

Corn

Turnover: 521,187 lots, or 11.44 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open

Settle Interest

Sep-25 2,345 2,355 2,301 2,302 2,285 2,345 60 691 11,759

Nov-25 2,199 2,205 2,194 2,202 2,199 2,199 0 358,208 852,554

Jan-26 2,170 2,174 2,166 2,172 2,174 2,169 -5 112,026 435,154

Mar-26 2,186 2,189 2,181 2,186 2,188 2,183 -5 20,585 175,911

May-26 2,240 2,244 2,231 2,240 2,241 2,237 -4 16,051 81,333

Jul-26 2,255 2,257 2,248 2,256 2,254 2,252 -2 13,626 24,711

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,067,065 lots, or 32.32 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open

Settle Interest

Sep-25 – – – 3,031 3,031 3,031 0 1,700 4,688

Nov-25 3,025 3,057 3,025 3,055 3,031 3,040 9 71,022 541,848

Dec-25 3,080 3,103 3,079 3,103 3,080 3,090 10 6,283 140,832

Jan-26 3,067 3,090 3,064 3,088 3,064 3,075 11 798,021 2,001,532

Mar-26 2,996 3,008 2,990 3,005 2,991 2,997 6 24,439 355,219

May-26 2,801 2,810 2,794 2,809 2,799 2,802 3 146,603 992,501

Jul-26 2,780 2,788 2,777 2,788 2,778 2,783 5 16,287 141,275

Aug-26 2,906 2,914 2,904 2,914 2,907 2,908 1 2,710 26,701

Palm Oil

Turnover: 769,574 lots, or 71.30 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open

Settle Interest

Sep-25 – – – 9,446 9,446 9,446 0 0 1,054

Oct-25 9,262 9,296 9,164 9,230 9,320 9,222 -98 10,822 7,675

Nov-25 9,236 9,290 9,172 9,270 9,314 9,236 -78 3,999 11,833

Dec-25 9,262 9,312 9,194 9,306 9,326 9,264 -62 1,390 1,597

Jan-26 9,280 9,334 9,208 9,330 9,340 9,274 -66 719,314 438,697

Feb-26 9,246 9,284 9,196 9,284 9,284 9,222 -62 286 1,491

Mar-26 9,220 9,254 9,158 9,254 9,290 9,212 -78 58 670

Apr-26 9,164 9,180 9,098 9,120 9,200 9,156 -44 31 64

May-26 9,064 9,116 9,004 9,114 9,126 9,062 -64 33,608 79,318

Jun-26 8,970 9,004 8,922 9,004 9,030 8,968 -62 24 77

Jul-26 8,900 8,900 8,840 8,840 8,942 8,868 -74 25 163

Aug-26 8,812 8,840 8,772 8,840 8,910 8,800 -110 17 50

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 357,133 lots, or 29.48 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open

Settle Interest

Sep-25 8,268 8,268 8,268 8,268 8,414 8,268 -146 1 1,327

Nov-25 8,300 8,368 8,286 8,368 8,344 8,326 -18 5,809 17,501

Dec-25 8,322 8,388 8,310 8,384 8,374 8,338 -36 879 6,102

Jan-26 8,272 8,342 8,262 8,336 8,322 8,292 -30 304,700 599,383

Mar-26 8,184 8,246 8,184 8,244 8,236 8,214 -22 66 1,622

May-26 7,990 8,032 7,962 8,026 8,028 7,986 -42 45,540 226,152

Jul-26 7,936 7,986 7,930 7,986 7,982 7,948 -34 122 501

Aug-26 7,936 7,986 7,934 7,986 7,998 7,948 -50 16 48

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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