Today has been one of those days, where you just don’t feel right. Everything just feels off. After a couple weeks of sick kids, it appears that their germs have finally reached the level to where my immune system can’t push back anymore. Well, as we look at the ag complex this week, not much went right from an overall aspect of trying to be bullish. Most all of the commodities ended on the lower side of 0 for the week, with exception to the hogs, led by sharp losses in the wheat complex. Much like children, the wheat market, at times can take no prisoners. And it seems that their germs spilled over to everyone else this week. Even the heavily bullish cattle market caught a few sniffles.
Corn saw back and forth trade, as December managed to ease back just 2 ¼ cents from last Friday. The weekly Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop at 58% dented as of August 31, with 15% mature. Ratings fell 2 % this week at 69% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index dropping 5 at 376. EIA data showed ethanol production back up 5,000 barrels per day in the week ending on August 29 at 1.075 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol were up 15,000 barrels to 22.564 million barrels. Monthly NASS Grain Crushing data showed 455.82 million bushels of corn used in ethanol production during July, a 2% increase from June but down 5.8% from last year. Weekly Export Sales data tallied 2024/25 corn bookings at a net reduction of 280,943 MT in the week that ended on August 28, with new crop sales tallied at 2.12 MMT. Census data tallied 6.224 MMT (245.04 mbu) of corn shipped during July, the second largest total for that month on record and 16.82% above last year. Distiller exports totaled 1.058 MMT during July, down 2.93% from last year, with ethanol exports a record for July at 164.38 million gallons. The Friday Commitment of Traders report indicated managed money slashing another 19,199 contracts from their net short position as of Tuesday, taking it to 91,487 contracts.
The wheat complex was weaker this week, as the bears take no prisoners. Chicago SRW futures were back down 15 cents cents, with the December KC HRW contract showing a 14 1/2 cent loss. MPLS December spring wheat was down 14 cents. Crop Progress data showed the US spring wheat crop at 72% harvested, 1 point ahead of average. Export Sales data showed US wheat 2025/26 business falling to 312,978 MT in the week ending on August 28. Shipped and unshipped sales so far in the marketing year are 12.465 MMT, 52% of the USDA export projection and ahead of the 48% average pace. Monthly Census data showed a total of 2.305 MMT (84.69 mbu) of wheat exported during July, a 34.05% increase month/month and up 22.52% year/year. Chicago wheat specs added back 346 contracts to their net short as of Tuesday, taking it to 81,943 contracts. In KC wheat, they increased their net short by 6,000 contracts to 54,681 contracts by 9/2.
Soybeans saw some early week pressure as China remains firm in their lack of buying US beans. November was down 27 ½ cents this week. The product values were again weaker, with September meal $2.90/ton lower and September bean oil down 89 points this week. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed 94% of the US soybean crop setting pods by 8/31 and 11% dropping leaves. Condition ratings were 4 percentage points lower at 65% good/excellent this week, with the Brugler500 index down 8 points to 366. NASS Fats & Oils data indicated 204.73 mbu of soybeans crushed in July, 3.98% above June and 5.94% ahead of last year’s total. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybeans at 23,775 MT in net reductions for the week of August 28. New crop business was down in that week to 818,474 MT. Monthly export data via Census showed July soybean shipments at 1.751 MMT (64.3 mbu), a 3 year high for the month and 16.67% larger than June. Meal exports were 1.392 MMT, which was a record for July, with bean oil shipments at 28,583 MT, the lowest since last November. Managed money cut back from their net long in soybean futures and options by 8,854 contracts by 9/2, taking that to a net long of just 11,964 contracts.
Live cattle were weaker this week as October fell $3.67 (1.53%) since last Friday. Cash trade was $2-3 weaker in the north this week but steady to $2 higher in the South at $242-243. Feeders were back down $4.95 on the week, a 1.36% move. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $1.42 week/week to $363.96. Wholesale boxed beef prices pulled back this week as we moved past the Labor Day weekend. Choice was down $4.65 (1.1%) this week to $410.76. Select was $4.81 (1.2%) lower at $385.19 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was down 13.7% from last week due to the holiday and 10.3% below the same week last year at 421.7 million lbs. Production year to date is 4% lower on a 7% decline in slaughter. Weekly Export Sales data showed 16,573 MT of beef sold in the week of August 28, a 6-week high, as shipments were 11,486 MT, up slightly from last week. Census data converted to a carcass basis showed a 10-year low in beef exports for July at 210.6 million lbs. Managed money added another 4,290 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday, taking it to 130,442 contracts. Spec funds cut another 2,205 contracts from their net long to 28,375 contracts by September 2.
Hogs were the strength of the ags this week, as October managed a $1 gain. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another 46 cents this week at $105.97 as of September 3. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $1.55 this week to $115.87/cwt. The picnic, rib, and belly were the primals reported lower on the week. Weekly pork production was down 2.7% from last week and 2.1% below the same week last year at 484.2 million lbs. Pork production year to date is down 2.3% on a 2.3% drop in slaughter. Export Sales data showed pork bookings at 23,711 MT in the week of 8/28, back down from the last week.
Pork exports converted from Census data to a carcass basis were tallied at 551.89 million lbs, the second largest all time for July. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money adding another 9,849 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 123,891 contracts.
Cotton eased back lower this week, with December down another 51 points. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report showed a total of 90% of the US cotton crop setting bolls by 8/31, with 28% opening. Condition ratings were down 3% to 51% good/excellent, as the Brugler500 index was 5 points lower at 344. Thursday’s Export Sales report showed an improvement in bookings to 244,971 RB in 2025/26 sales for week ending on 8/28. Shipments were up to 154,651 RB. Commitments for the current year exports are just 3.657 million RB, which is 32% of the USDA forecast and lags the 49% average sales pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 63 points lower this week, to 54.31 cents/lb. Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders adding another 6,438 contracts to their net short position as of September 2 to a net -66,369 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the release of the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning and the Crop Progress release that afternoon. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday, with the PPI data out that morning. Thursday morning will see the release of the weekly Export Sales report, as well as the CPI data. On Friday, USDA will release the monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports, with September grain futures expiring.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans have had just over a $1.15 range over the last year. In that period, the high of $10.75 ¾ from February has held. The June high almost got there, with the August high getting to $10.62 ¾. That high was the breakout of a pennant formation (to the upside), though that was negated in the last week. This week failed below the Bollinger midline at $10.41 ¾, with the 100-day moving average at $10.30 failing to hold on Friday. The 38.2% Fib retracement support is at $10.31 ½ and held on Thursday’s hammer candlestick. The 50% retracements is at $10.22, with the 61.8% at 10.12 ¼. The 200-day moving average support at $10.26 ¾ and did hold on Friday, with the 40-day at $10.23. Stochastics are bearish, with MACD shifting bearish this week.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Under the Weather. Ag Marketing Report 09/08/2025
Today has been one of those days, where you just don’t feel right. Everything just feels off. After a couple weeks of sick kids, it appears that their germs have finally reached the level to where my immune system can’t push back anymore. Well, as we look at the ag complex this week, not much went right from an overall aspect of trying to be bullish. Most all of the commodities ended on the lower side of 0 for the week, with exception to the hogs, led by sharp losses in the wheat complex. Much like children, the wheat market, at times can take no prisoners. And it seems that their germs spilled over to everyone else this week. Even the heavily bullish cattle market caught a few sniffles.
Corn saw back and forth trade, as December managed to ease back just 2 ¼ cents from last Friday. The weekly Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop at 58% dented as of August 31, with 15% mature. Ratings fell 2 % this week at 69% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index dropping 5 at 376. EIA data showed ethanol production back up 5,000 barrels per day in the week ending on August 29 at 1.075 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol were up 15,000 barrels to 22.564 million barrels. Monthly NASS Grain Crushing data showed 455.82 million bushels of corn used in ethanol production during July, a 2% increase from June but down 5.8% from last year. Weekly Export Sales data tallied 2024/25 corn bookings at a net reduction of 280,943 MT in the week that ended on August 28, with new crop sales tallied at 2.12 MMT. Census data tallied 6.224 MMT (245.04 mbu) of corn shipped during July, the second largest total for that month on record and 16.82% above last year. Distiller exports totaled 1.058 MMT during July, down 2.93% from last year, with ethanol exports a record for July at 164.38 million gallons. The Friday Commitment of Traders report indicated managed money slashing another 19,199 contracts from their net short position as of Tuesday, taking it to 91,487 contracts.
The wheat complex was weaker this week, as the bears take no prisoners. Chicago SRW futures were back down 15 cents cents, with the December KC HRW contract showing a 14 1/2 cent loss. MPLS December spring wheat was down 14 cents. Crop Progress data showed the US spring wheat crop at 72% harvested, 1 point ahead of average. Export Sales data showed US wheat 2025/26 business falling to 312,978 MT in the week ending on August 28. Shipped and unshipped sales so far in the marketing year are 12.465 MMT, 52% of the USDA export projection and ahead of the 48% average pace. Monthly Census data showed a total of 2.305 MMT (84.69 mbu) of wheat exported during July, a 34.05% increase month/month and up 22.52% year/year. Chicago wheat specs added back 346 contracts to their net short as of Tuesday, taking it to 81,943 contracts. In KC wheat, they increased their net short by 6,000 contracts to 54,681 contracts by 9/2.
Soybeans saw some early week pressure as China remains firm in their lack of buying US beans. November was down 27 ½ cents this week. The product values were again weaker, with September meal $2.90/ton lower and September bean oil down 89 points this week. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed 94% of the US soybean crop setting pods by 8/31 and 11% dropping leaves. Condition ratings were 4 percentage points lower at 65% good/excellent this week, with the Brugler500 index down 8 points to 366. NASS Fats & Oils data indicated 204.73 mbu of soybeans crushed in July, 3.98% above June and 5.94% ahead of last year’s total. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybeans at 23,775 MT in net reductions for the week of August 28. New crop business was down in that week to 818,474 MT. Monthly export data via Census showed July soybean shipments at 1.751 MMT (64.3 mbu), a 3 year high for the month and 16.67% larger than June. Meal exports were 1.392 MMT, which was a record for July, with bean oil shipments at 28,583 MT, the lowest since last November. Managed money cut back from their net long in soybean futures and options by 8,854 contracts by 9/2, taking that to a net long of just 11,964 contracts.
Live cattle were weaker this week as October fell $3.67 (1.53%) since last Friday. Cash trade was $2-3 weaker in the north this week but steady to $2 higher in the South at $242-243. Feeders were back down $4.95 on the week, a 1.36% move. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $1.42 week/week to $363.96. Wholesale boxed beef prices pulled back this week as we moved past the Labor Day weekend. Choice was down $4.65 (1.1%) this week to $410.76. Select was $4.81 (1.2%) lower at $385.19 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was down 13.7% from last week due to the holiday and 10.3% below the same week last year at 421.7 million lbs. Production year to date is 4% lower on a 7% decline in slaughter. Weekly Export Sales data showed 16,573 MT of beef sold in the week of August 28, a 6-week high, as shipments were 11,486 MT, up slightly from last week. Census data converted to a carcass basis showed a 10-year low in beef exports for July at 210.6 million lbs. Managed money added another 4,290 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday, taking it to 130,442 contracts. Spec funds cut another 2,205 contracts from their net long to 28,375 contracts by September 2.
Hogs were the strength of the ags this week, as October managed a $1 gain. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another 46 cents this week at $105.97 as of September 3. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $1.55 this week to $115.87/cwt. The picnic, rib, and belly were the primals reported lower on the week. Weekly pork production was down 2.7% from last week and 2.1% below the same week last year at 484.2 million lbs. Pork production year to date is down 2.3% on a 2.3% drop in slaughter. Export Sales data showed pork bookings at 23,711 MT in the week of 8/28, back down from the last week.
Pork exports converted from Census data to a carcass basis were tallied at 551.89 million lbs, the second largest all time for July. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money adding another 9,849 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 123,891 contracts.
Cotton eased back lower this week, with December down another 51 points. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report showed a total of 90% of the US cotton crop setting bolls by 8/31, with 28% opening. Condition ratings were down 3% to 51% good/excellent, as the Brugler500 index was 5 points lower at 344. Thursday’s Export Sales report showed an improvement in bookings to 244,971 RB in 2025/26 sales for week ending on 8/28. Shipments were up to 154,651 RB. Commitments for the current year exports are just 3.657 million RB, which is 32% of the USDA forecast and lags the 49% average sales pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 63 points lower this week, to 54.31 cents/lb. Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders adding another 6,438 contracts to their net short position as of September 2 to a net -66,369 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the release of the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning and the Crop Progress release that afternoon. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday, with the PPI data out that morning. Thursday morning will see the release of the weekly Export Sales report, as well as the CPI data. On Friday, USDA will release the monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports, with September grain futures expiring.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans have had just over a $1.15 range over the last year. In that period, the high of $10.75 ¾ from February has held. The June high almost got there, with the August high getting to $10.62 ¾. That high was the breakout of a pennant formation (to the upside), though that was negated in the last week. This week failed below the Bollinger midline at $10.41 ¾, with the 100-day moving average at $10.30 failing to hold on Friday. The 38.2% Fib retracement support is at $10.31 ½ and held on Thursday’s hammer candlestick. The 50% retracements is at $10.22, with the 61.8% at 10.12 ¼. The 200-day moving average support at $10.26 ¾ and did hold on Friday, with the 40-day at $10.23. Stochastics are bearish, with MACD shifting bearish this week.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.